MTB An Underlay

[Travis Stone]

This doesn't really prove much because the scratch of I Want Revenge screwed-up a direct comparison of odds but it's interesting. Here is a comparison of rank in the Oaks-Derby Double pool compared to the win pool:



I bolded General Quarters because he was the 9th favorite in the DD pool, but was the 5th favorite in actual win pool betting. Also interesting is how Hold Me Back was the fourth favorite in the DD, but went off the seventh choice in the race itself.

I think the Oaks/Derby double is a more accurate representation of how horses were bet from an exotics standpoint (non-WPS in the Derby itself). The logic being the more serious handicappers - those are pumping money in exactas, trifectas and superfectas - would also bet the Oaks/Derby double.

If anyone has updated Derby/Oaks willpays post the scratch of IWR that'd be helpful, as it'll truly show how the DD was bet in relation to the Derby.