5/1-2: ATR Selections

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 75th Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kodiak Cowboy 8-5
Next Best: #9 Sok Sok 5-2
Best Value: #8 Silver Edition 12-1
Super Add: #6 Accredit 8-1


7th: 54th Eight Belles (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Jenda 4-1
Best Value: #10 Auspicious 9-2
Next Best: #4 Four Gifts 3-1
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15-1


8th: 24th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Visit 7-2
Best Value: #1 Lemon Chiffon 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ballymore Lady 9-2
Super Add: #3 Tizaqueena 8-1


9th: 23rd Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Game Face 2-1
Best Value: #7 Royale Michelle 10-1
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 9-5
Super Add: #5 Secret Gypsy 7-2


10th: 23rd Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T ((P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Einstein 2-1
Best Value: #9 Zambezi Sun 10-1
Next Best: #4 Court Vision 7-2
Super Add: #3 Proudinsky 6-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1: Candy Ride colt should relish trip, surface; sharp pre-race work..
Most Likely: #6 Friesan Fire 5-1: Grudgingly respect solid A.P. Indy that may own big tactical edge..
Exotics Use: #5 Hold Me Back 15-1; #10 Regal Ransom 30-1
Super Add: #1 West Side Bernie 30-1; #3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-4-6-9
11: 3-5-6-10-11-13-15

2x3x4x7 = 168 x .50 = $84


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 3-6-8-9
7: 1
8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 6
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

4x1x2x3x1x6 = 144 x $2 = $288


Good luck!
Steve



GUS ALONSO'S DERBY DAY ACTION

R1 - MSW 48k

#5 Britannia Rose
#8 Secret Humor
#1 Mother Ruth
#4 Awesome Grannie

R2 - Alw 52.7k N2X

#7 Major Pleasure
#4 Riley Tucker
#5 Saratoga Seven
#1 Izanagi

R3 - MSW 48k

#3 Rotterdam
#10 Polished
#2 Eagle Poise
#6 Prospective Love

R4 - Alw 50.2k N1X

#6 Brother Keith
#5 Ziegfeld
#1 Northern Prince
#7 Bull Toccet

R5 - OC80k/N3X (Turf)

#1 Why Tonto
#7 Pick Six
#11 Jazz in the Park
#4 Artic Cry

PK4 - 4 7 / 2 3 10 / 1 5 6 / 1 4 7 11 = $36 for a $.50 play

R6 - G2 Churchill Downs Handicap

#3 Kodiak Kowboy - Highweight is as tough as they come.
#6 Accredit
#9 Sok Sok
#5 Spotsgone

R7 - G3 Eight Belles

#4 Four Gifts
#7 Lady's Laughter
#1 Just Jenda
#10 Auspicious

PK4 - 1 5 6 / 1 4 7 11 / 3 / 1 4 7 10 = $24 for a $.50 play

R8 - G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Turf)

#2 Visit (GB) - She looks tougher than a $2 steak in this event.
#1 Lemon Chiffon - Will find her best strides late.
#11 Dawn After Dawn - Consistent sort loves the distance.
#7 Ballymore Lady - Has run well off a freshening.

R9 - G1 Humana Distaff
(Difficult to separate top 3)

#3 Informed Decision
#9 Game Face
#5 Secret Gypsy
#8 Modification

R10 - G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Turf)

#9 Zambezi Sun (GB) - Failed at odds on in U.S. Debut, no excuses here with soft going.
#6 Einstein (Brz) - Defending champ will bring it again.
#4 Court Vision - G1 winner takes the hood off.
#3 Proudinsky (Ger) - Minor aware well within his grasp.

R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 West Side Bernie - The rail is no treat, but he could be played underneath in Tri/Supers.
#2 Musket Man - Must continue to prove himself, but is taking a huge step up with a difficult post.
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff - One of three WinStar runners side by side. Tough assignment to tackle.
#4 Advice - Don't see him as a threat and he's probably just happy to be here.
#5 Hold Me Back - I really like the way he's coming in and looks to be sitting on a peak performance.
#6 Freisan Fire - Jones knows how to get them ready and it seems like the Racing Gods are looking out for him.
#7 Papa Clem - Versatile colt might be being overlooked.
#8 Mine That Bird - Borel will just have look forward this time.
#9 Join in the Dance - Will flash some speed if nothing else.
#10 Regal Ransom - Tricky read for me, but siding against.
#11 Chocolate Candy - Connections say he will handle the wet track.
#12 General Quarters - Great story and can't fault anyone that is taking a shot with him.
#13 I Want Revenge - Contender has beaten a couple of weak fields in the Big Apple and I'm going against the favorite.
#14 Atomic Rain - Arrived at CD late and will probably be late getting to the wire.
#15 Dunkirk - Potential is unlimited, but the inexperience might be his downfall. Top choice.
#16 Pioneerof the Nile - Gomez has stated that he likes to wait on horses. Pass.
#17 Summer Bird - Will definitely stay the trip and could blow up some exotic tickets.
#18 Nowhere to Hide - Similar to last year's Derby, Zito brings a knife to a gun fight.
#19 Desert Party - Not the ideal draw, but he could be the one to finally bring the elusive roses to Dubai.
#20 Flying Private - Hasn't won since last summer and the water is deep here.

Selections
#15 Dunkirk
#6 Freisan Fire
#19 Desert Party
#5 Hold Me Back

PK4 - 1 2 / 3 5 9 / 4 6 9 / 6 15 19 = $27 for a $.50 play

R12 - Alw 50.2k N1X

#7 Honchis'n Ponchis
#8 Passion Du Coeur
#1 Luster
#4 East Breaks

R13 - MSW 48k

#2 Ambergris Caye
#3 Cullinan
#10 Delta Emperator
#13 Victory Notion - AE

PK4 - 4 6 9 / 5 6 15 19 / 7 8 / 2 3 10 = $36 for a $.50 play

Good Racing Luck