5/2 (CD): Kentucky Derby (G1)

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I will offer an explanation. IWR's last two races were very good. But what did he beat? In the two NY races combined, he beat two horses with any graded stakes earnings. One other has come back to win, the rest are still eligible for non-winners of 1 allowance races. His win in the Wood was so visually impressive because of the trouble he overcame that it is easy to overlook what he beat that day.

IWR also has twice lost to POTN who incidently happens to have a four race win streak coming in. The dirt is the wildcard. We know IWR loves it. We can't say for sure that POTN will. However, from all accounts he has trained wonderfully over it. I see no reason that he won't continue his winning ways saturday.

Paul

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by kgar311

He has trained well over it but has yet to have that same dirt kicked in his face

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by tjfla

That is the big problem I got with POTN, either gonna have dirt or mud in his face. Its not like Cali where he gets plastic bouncing off him

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well.

His sire is 3-for-117 with 1st time turfers - and his dam couldn't outrun a goat on turf when she raced here - and turf and synthetic are pretty much the same thing -- so ... while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks - I would have considered IWR the best pedigree projection to improve on dirt of the synthetic horses but he would only have been my longshot flyer for underneath in a race where I would have had knocks on everything.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks

could it be he just prefers races where rivals don't quicken in the final 16ths??

[Linny]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

His sire is 3-for-117 with 1st time turfers - and his dam couldn't outrun a goat on turf when she raced here - and turf and synthetic are pretty much the same thing -- so ... while IWR utterly stinks on synthetic tracks - I would have considered IWR the best pedigree projection to improve on dirt of the synthetic horses but he would only have been my longshot flyer for underneath in a race where I would have had knocks on everything.

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Linny

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

Goes to show how much faster IWR is...he stinks and still came up just that short against a specialist. Curlin "stunk on turf while finishing second in a GI to a BC Turf winner.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Linny

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

I didn't say POTN was a confirmed synth specialist .. though my hunch is he will likely be proven one.

Go watch IWR's 3rd to POTN and PC in the Pro-Ride race ... it was terrible.

The Pampelmousse and a healthy Square Eddie before being rushed back insanely from a fracture are the good synthetic track horses.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I didn't say POTN was a confirmed synth specialist .. though my hunch is he will likely be proven one.

Go watch IWR's 3rd to POTN and PC in the Pro-Ride race ... it was terrible.

The Pampelmousse and a healthy Square Eddie before being rushed back insanely from a fracture are the good synthetic track horses.

i would include hold me back. he may not turn out a good one, but he's definitely a syn specialist.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Linny

Have can you say that POTN is a "synth specialist" and yet say IWR "stinks" on synth when they were only a nose apart in the CashCall Futurity?

if you watch the CaschCall where IWR ran well on synth vs. the specialist, and then continue in sequence to the Robert B Lewis you should notice a few things.
1. IWR is now the clear rival of POTN in both wagering and race tactics
2. Talamo makes 1st run in the Robert Lewis in an attempt to beat POTN(as a reaction to being unable to pass POTN when both quickened in the CashCall)
3. IWR runs a 23.4? 6f-8f quarter before slowing to a 6.4? final 16th (forgive me for not calculating these exactly once again)...

Horses don't run 23.4s if they are supposedly spinning their wheels.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

3. IWR runs a 23.4? 6f-8f quarter before slowing to a 6.4? final 16th (forgive me for not calculating these exactly once again)...

Yeah - it's a very good idea to look at naked closing fractions of Pro-Ride races.

I hate to break it to you - but there was nothing outstanding about IWR's come home time that race. The come-home times at that track were lightning fast.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Which is why I will get a square price on him. Look, every horse in the race has question marks. None have ever run this far, none have ever faced 20 horse fields, etc.

If IWR had stayed in California, you by the same logic would be writing him off as well. Yet we all know he handled the dirt kickback just fine. Same with Papa Clem. I will take my chances with a horse who hasn't lost this year, who has one of the top jockey/trainer combos possible, and one who will offer serious value as the fifth choice.

Paul

I have a big problem with POTN, and it has nothing to do with synthetics versus dirt.

He's too slow.