2000 Guineas

[brockguy]

No Chance, Im pissed too Intense Focus isnt there either - Ive used him in many ante post bets including loads of Patents and Lucky 15s this week.

I'll go for Lord Shanakil / Rip Van Winkle / Gan Amhras

[NoChanceToDance]

I had a proper good look through this race last night until I was sick to death of reading form and looking in depth into how the race is likely to be run.

First of all, I don't think there will be any draw bias tomorrow. They have watered but it's been piping hot here today and we haven't seen rain in a week. It will (hopefully) be good to firm, but because of what Brian Meehan said earlier this week you can be sure it will be closer to good. I have got to realise that the favourite for any classic will always gets the ground to favour them (see Motivator and Authorized amongst others). There is plenty of pace on all across the track, so it should be run at a good clip. I think you'll need to be able to stay the mile well, which to me rules out Finjaan straight away as he is surely a non stayer over a mile.

Evasive is one of the horses here who's form has stood up well from last year, but he's had a couple of setbacks and he isn't certain to see out a strongly run mile. He is of interest for this year, but passed over here.

Delegator comes into the race with the solid look about him, but what he did in the Craven was what was expected of him and no more, so the gamble which followed was just silly. He has a chance, but at 7/2 he's not for me, he should be 6/1.

I'm keen to take on the O'brien runners. I think even he would admit that these to would be two of the weakest colts he'd sent to the classic in recent years. In my opinion Mastercraftsman was purely a 2yo type, and I'm doubtful there is much (if any) progression to come this year. Rip Van Winkle looks like the type to carry on this year, but I can't help but think he will need further this year. He's also had two setbacks, one only at the start of this week, and in my opinion you cannot win a classic unless the prep has gone smoothly. However, the quicker they go here, the better his chance will be. They will both be underpriced and the mugs will be punting RVW blindly. He may win, but 7/2 does not represent any value whatsoever.

On Our Way needs rain to take his chance apparently, so is an unlikely runner. However, I do think he has the potential to make into a very nice horse this year. If he does take his chance, he could surprise a few people.

Sea The Stars is potentially very interesting. I liked him a lot as a 2yo, and he's the type to improve this year but with so much pace likely, I can see him getting outpaced before staying on. I think he'll be a proper horse over ten furlongs and more this year. One to keep a very close eye on.

The one I really like here (and bet him accordingly) is Gan Amhras. He really impressed me when sprinted away from Masterofthehorse last year over a mile (in a very quick time) on similar ground that it will be tomorrow. He still looked very raw last year and will no doubt have improved a good deal over the winter. The drop back to seven furlongs was against him when still running a decent race on his final start in the Goffs millions (looked a good race on paper). The stiff mile with plenty of pace on will be ideal for him, and it is fascinating that from three or four colts that wouldn't have looked out of place in this, Jim Bolger has chosen to go alone with this one. Not even declaring Intense Focus and stating that Vocalised (easy winner of the greenham) was going to be pointed to the Derby. Everything suggests that this lad is better than those two. Last year, Bolger said a number of times this Gan Amhras would be a much better 3yo and he'd be patient with him at two. Everything points to a massive run from this colt. I took some 14/1 last night, and I'd be very surprised if he was to go off at any bigger than 9/1 tomorrow.

[NoChanceToDance]

Well, after a very open looking guineas it looks like we are going to have a superb Derby on our hands this year, with three of the first four home in the Guineas looking like proper derby types later this year.

Sea The Stars coped well with the mile, which was the main question mark beforehand, he showed plenty of pace and stayed on really well. After that performance you wouldn't be sure he'd stay a mile and a half, he sure seem to have plenty of toe.

The Bolger horse ran a great race in defeat, he was one of the first under pressure but really stayed on well and would have been second in another few strides. He looks a derby definite with 12 furlongs going to bering further improvement.

Rip Van Winkle ran better than I expected him to, and also stayed on well. He might be a very good candidate for the French Derby.

I think many of the others that ran yesterday will be seen in a better light over six and seven furlongs. To me, Evasive didn't stay and could be a very difficult horse to place this year. Arguably you could say the same thing about Delegator who travelled like a dream but weakened inside the final furlong. He travels so well in his races that he could just make a top class sprinter. There is plenty of speed in the dam side of his pedigree.