Unproven stallions-- best/worst values

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by Revolution

it is not all guesswork. there is a tremendous amount of thought involved. the goal is to increase the odds. it is no different than any other business. luck is involved but it is not ALL guesswork, as you noted. do you speak from breeding experience? i would find it hard to believe anyone that has ever been in the breeding business would make your statements.

Revolution,
I wish Sumitas would weigh in on this topic. He's a breeder, as am I.
We both study the genetics, look at where the mare is weak in terms of conformation, look for a stallion that can correct her deficiencies, book to the best ones we can afford, and hope for the best. It really is a "gamble".
Sometimes, after all the waiting, comes the day that a foal is born with big problems. We had a "dummy foal" born at the farm last year. It was very sad. This one was by a good sire out of a proven race mare.
Since the foal stood and nursed (with help), the fee had to be paid. The mare had costs for the time it took her to get into foal (vet, trucking...).
The foal died after three days.
Anyway, all I'm trying to say is that there are no guarantees.
Even if you have a nice yearling, you can put it into a sale like the Saratoga Select this past August, when the buyers didn't show up. You can lose that way too.
On the "bright side", you can breed to an undervalued sire (Distorted Humor at the time) with a mare from a fairground and come up with one like Funny Cide.
It's a very interesting game...lot's of "guess work".
Bettors are lucky because all they need to do is wait until the race is over to know if they have a ticket to cash. Breeders wait eleven months just to see it hit the ground. Then another year for a sale, or two if kept to race.
Paying all the way.
It's not for the feint of heart, but it's something I love, and I've met some great people along the way. Some nice horses too!
DTS