Best current Derby future odds

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 6.25
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 40.5
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 60.5
Advice 40.5

Changes since yesterday: (Bookmaker and WSEX have their odds back up)

Friesan Fire is now available at 7-1 at Bookmaker. (Bookmaker also had IWR briefly at 5-1 and Dunkirk at 6-1 today, but those were knocked down.

West Side Bernie is available at 51-1 at Bookmaker

Atomic Rain is available at 99-1 at Bookmaker.

Here are the updated best available future odds:

I Want Revenge 4.85
Dunkirk 6 wsex.com
Quality Road 5.25
Friesan Fire 7 Bookmaker
Pioneer of the Nile 7.25
Papa Clem 18.15
Chocolate Candy 20.5
Desert Party 22.5
Musket Man 40.5
Square Eddie 40.5
Hold Me Back 30.5
General Quarters 28.5
Regal Ransom 40.5
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5
Giant Oak 40.5
Mine That Bird 80.5
Charitable Man 85.5
Take The Points 60.5
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5

Unless otherwise noted, the best odds were at TheGreek. (fwiw, Bodog still has no line up)

The vig from those odds is 11.7% plus the chance that some horse not on the list wins the Derby.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Whoa! Just noticed that 5Dimes has put up some Derby futures. 5Dimes now has the best price on 7 of the 8 lowest odds horses. (all except IWR):

Dunkirk 6.5
Quality Road 6.25
Friesan Fire 8.25
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5
Papa Clem 22
Chocolate Candy 21
Desert Party 26

Combining these future odds with the ones above (and eliminating Giant Oak) results in a vig of 2.8% (plus the remote chance any horse not listed wins the race.)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Best odds this morning:

I Want Revenge 4.5 World Sports Exch
Dunkirk 6.5 5Dimes
Quality Road 6.25 5Dimes
Friesan Fire 8.25 5Dimes
Pioneer of the Nile 8.5 5Dimes
Papa Clem 22 5Dimes
Chocolate Candy 21 5Dimes
Desert Party 26 5Dimes
Musket Man 33 5Dimes
Square Eddie 40.5 TheGreek
Hold Me Back 30.5 TheGreek
General Quarters 28.5 TheGreek
Regal Ransom 40.5 TheGreek
West Side Bernie 51 Bookmaker
Flying Private 60.5 TheGreek
Mine That Bird 80.5 TheGreek
Charitable Man 85.5 TheGreek
Atomic Rain 99 Bookmaker
Advice 40.5 TheGreek

Odds have dropped on IWR and Musket Man, otherwise no change from yesterday. I removed Take the Points from the list because Pletcher said he is unlikely to enter.

--Dunbar

Effective "takeout" is 2.8% plus chance some other horse wins.

[Dunbar]

Wynn Las Vegas beats that list with these horses:

Quality Road 7-1
Flying Private 75-1
Atomic Rain 125-1

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

9/2 on I Want Revenge and 7/1 on Quality Road both look like gifts.

Agree- I highly doubt either go off at those prices in 11 days. I guess they're offering a point for time value.

I think IWR goes off at 7/2 or 4/1 (right around $10.00) and QR goes off at 5/1 or 11/2.

I could see Regal Ransom at under 40-1 on the tote as well.

For sake of argument, here's what I see it at a 16% takeout (with the top 20 in earnings expected to go):

Horse odds
I Want Revenge 3.70
Quality Road 5.40
Pioneerof the Nile 7.50
Dunkirk 8.40
Friesan Fire 10.90
General Quarters 16.90
Papa Clem 18.60
Square Eddie 19.40
Regal Ransom 22.00
Desert Party 22.00
Musket Man 23.70
Hold Me Back 27.10
Chocolate Candy 27.90
West Side Bernie 29.60
Win Willy 33.90
Advice 42.40
Mr. Hot Stuff 63.70
Summer Bird 63.70
Mine That Bird 67.90
Flying Private 67.90

[jms62]

Got QRoad at 6-1 pool 3, Musket Man at 25-1 pool 3 and General Quarters at 75-1 on Bodog prior to his Keeneland win