Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

A really sharp handicapper should have noted that being the best physically and having a top-class race in his debut, and working as well as he did leading up to the FOY, that he should have been given an good chance with TOFP and JoJo. We shouldn't have needed an insider's plausable excuse.

We messed up.

We all like to think that we are tremendous judges of talent, but the fact is we should have been raving about how Quality Road towers over these others in physical talent, and 5-1 would seem like a fair range of odds.

Compare them now, JoJo and TOFP didn't shrink ! QR didn't grow a whole bunch more! We missed an obvious thing because we were caught up in other stuff like move-ups ,and we we wrote off QR prematurely, even though he was working like a monster up to the FOY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Compare them now,

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

The money in the pools is not an equal representation of public opinion. In reality a minority controls the pools with their larger wagers.
"He should have been a bigger price" - yea according to public opinion he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.

I bet 200 each on Phil and JOJO, but I can see after the fact that I screwed up. Evaluating your own past performance isn't about whether you win or lose(in the short term), and it isn't about what Joe-Public "should have" thought at the time of the race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.

Let the "good players" pound horses like that down to 5/1 .... they won't still be around the game betting a lot of money for very long .. unless they have deep pockets and a willingness to lose a lot of money.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let the "good players" pound horses like that down to 5/1 .... they won't still be around the game betting a lot of money for very long .. unless they have deep pockets and a willingness to lose a lot of money.

Maybe so.
I really happen to think 5-1 was closer to break even on that play for Quality Road.

However:
Don't get me wrong, I think in hindsight the play would NOT have been to bet Quality Road to win, but to pass the race. If you had a vulnerable favorite in one of the other legs, you would include all three FOY contenders in those (double/pick3/pick4) tickets.