Musket Man part 2

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Steve will answer i'm sure once he sees my post

He liked him in tampa and in ill - we'll see as he does a big time analysis of every derby horse so i'm sure we will get input from him at some point - there is plenty of time

if i hear anything from my man , ill be sure to post

let's just hope hammering hank , beyer and the rest of the so called experts say he is too slow and can't win , then the public won't jump on him come derby day

Well it's a double edged sword, because you know if Hank picks him as a win contender, you can safely toss him from all wagers.

There's no reason to worry about not getting a fair price on him. You will.

[Travis Stone]

Musket Man is a useful horse and it's hard to knock an animal who keeps on winning, but I think it's foolish to make him the stone-cold lock. There are lots of very good horses on this trail right now

[gales0678]

Travis i don't think there was ever a stone cold lock for any derby

Holly Bull looked awfully good and went straight to his knees , Arazi well we know what happened there, and Point Given to name a few

musket man will never be considered a lock , but ,this is good as it will help his price

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by gales0678

Travis i don't think there was ever a stone cold lock for any derby

Holly Bull looked awfully good and went straight to his knees , Arazi well we know what happened there, and Point Given to name a few

musket man will never be considered a lock , but ,this is good as it will help his price

barbero was

[blackthroatedwind]

Musket Man will most likely be an underlay of Derby Day. I like him, he's a nice horse, and a friend of mine is involved with him, but he's very unlikely to win the Derby and anything under 25 or 30 to one is probably an underlay.

Just because a horse is a big price ( small price ) doesn't mean it is an overlay ( underlay ). Musket Man won two supposed " big " races. He will be bet more because of a resume earned against pretty weak opposition than he will be underbet due to his relatively weaker races than a number of horses.

That being said, he will be an overlay in relation to Pioneer of the Nile.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That being said, he will be an overlay in relation to Pioneer of the Nile.

Gosh darn I hope for your sake that horse doesn't finish ITM. I'm definitely not a big fan of his, but you have been just plain relentless.

[AeWingnut]

While Musket Man has the 2 word 3 syllable name I like to see in a Derby horse his dosage profile is a little troubling.

DP = 5-1-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00

He doesn't have that many points and he has zero in the "solid" & "professional" stamina areas. Maybe they will decide the numbers are bogus after he wins.

Good luck. I'm not using him.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

barbero was

you got me there !

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Musket Man is a useful horse and it's hard to knock an animal who keeps on winning, but I think it's foolish to make him the stone-cold lock. There are lots of very good horses on this trail right now

You can say this for every horse in the race but the cards do have to fall his way. I dont think if he gets in any type of trouble that he will be able to overcome but seeing that he doesnt get in that much trouble in his races and he does have a nice style about him I will take my chances on 25-1 or higher to make a big score. Now I will also have plenty of backup tickets with the horses that figure but if I am to take a chance on any horse in the race to make a big score it would be this one. Im def not calling him a lock but a very nice value.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by kgar311

You can say this for every horse in the race but the cards do have to fall his way. I dont think if he gets in any type of trouble that he will be able to overcome but seeing that he doesnt get in that much trouble in his races and he does have a nice style about him I will take my chances on 25-1 or higher to make a big score. Now I will also have plenty of backup tickets with the horses that figure but if I am to take a chance on any horse in the race to make a big score it would be this one. Im def not calling him a lock but a very nice value.

always better to bet overlays than underlays

[Travis Stone]

If 25-1 is an overlay, which price do you think he should be assuming Quality Road is in the race?

[Travis Stone]

I mis-read your post... I'm sure i'll have tickets with him on top as well, but I think it's a bit crazy to just put all eggs in his basket. He does have plenty of ? marks, despite being a winning machine... outrunning Giant Oak is nothing to be proud about, but winning a lot is. It's a good race this year, very competitive.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I mis-read your post... I'm sure i'll have tickets with him on top as well, but I think it's a bit crazy to just put all eggs in his basket. He does have plenty of ? marks, despite being a winning machine... outrunning Giant Oak is nothing to be proud about, but winning a lot is. It's a good race this year, very competitive.

I think that as more races are run, that statement will be proven false.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by kgar311

You can say this for every horse in the race but the cards do have to fall his way. I dont think if he gets in any type of trouble that he will be able to overcome but seeing that he doesnt get in that much trouble in his races and he does have a nice style about him I will take my chances on 25-1 or higher to make a big score. Now I will also have plenty of backup tickets with the horses that figure but if I am to take a chance on any horse in the race to make a big score it would be this one. Im def not calling him a lock but a very nice value.

After watching a Replay of the TB Derby this morning I believe I need to recant something I said about the horse getting in some trouble. Although he did get out of the gate nicely and was in good position down the backside, going into the far turn he was in between horses, in which he loves to be for some reason getting dirt kicked in his face, Centeno had to stand straight up on the horse as he got into some traffic trouble. Once he stood up he lost about 3 lengths and about 4-5 horses passed him at that time. After he regrouped, he swung 5 wide into the lane and with a tremendous burst got up at the wire. Watching that replay just made me like him even more now. The race in the Ill. Derby just just showed me what this horse can do with a decent trip. This horse is all heart and loves to win, I like that recipie.

[slotdirt]

Dosage is so out of vogue now.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Dosage is so out of vogue now.

it does go with what you said about his sire

[slotdirt]

This is true, but that is more pedigree than voodoo.