4/4 (SA): Santa Anita Derby (G1); Arcadia, Potrero Grnade, Providencia (G2's)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Perhaps those that have seen Pioneer beat him twice. Maybe? I don't know.

Sure, Pioneer is much better on synthetics. Too bad the Derby's on dirt.

NT

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

* regarding the surface.

NT

Before IWR had run on the dirt, we didn't know if either of them would or wouldn't like it. IWR has now shown that he does but Pioneer hasn't shown that he doesn't. I don't jump to the automatic conclusion that IWR improves more on dirt than Pioneer does. If they both improve equally, then that would make Pioneer probably still better than IWR. What if Pioneer likes it more than IWR does?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Before IWR had run on the dirt, we didn't know if either of them would or wouldn't like it. IWR has now shown that he does but Pioneer hasn't shown that he doesn't. I don't jump to the automatic conclusion that IWR improves more on dirt than Pioneer does. If they both improve equally, then that would make Pioneer probably still better than IWR. What if Pioneer likes it more than IWR does?

I'm operating under the assumption that he will not. That's based on Bill Mott's assessment that he was not a dirt horse by running him on turf or synthetics in three races last year. He has specialized in turf-like races where the last move wins.

I also thought Pioneer's trip in the Bob Lewis was better and you could really see I Want Revenge struggling with the track in the stretch.

Of course, it remains to be seen if A) I Want Revenge is just a one-hit wonder who benefited from a perfect trip in the Gotham or B) POTN will also move up on the dirt and prove that the California crop was simply unable to post respectable figures because of the synthetics.

I will gamble that POTN is a turf horse because it seems a safe bet that he's going to be overbet in the Derby relative to his overall ability.

NT

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm operating under the assumption that he will not. That's based on Bill Mott's assessment that he was not a dirt horse by running him on turf or synthetics in three races last year. He has specialized in turf-like races where the last move wins.

I also thought Pioneer's trip in the Bob Lewis was better and you could really see I Want Revenge struggling with the track in the stretch.

Of course, it remains to be seen if A) I Want Revenge is just a one-hit wonder who benefited from a perfect trip in the Gotham or B) POTN will also move up on the dirt and prove that the California crop was simply unable to post respectable figures because of the synthetics.

I will gamble that POTN is a turf horse because it seems a safe bet that he's going to be overbet in the Derby relative to his overall ability.

NT

I don't disagree with any of this. Accept for the part about where Mott started him out. That doesn't mean much at all. What surface was Barbaro running on early? Big Brown? Lure? Kitten's Joy? Cigar? Zito continously placed Commentator in sprints. Sometimes, they get it wrong. And it's not even that they necessarily get wrong. Some horses, like the first three I mentioned, are good on both.

Only thing I'd say is that at this point, IWR does deserve the edge in a dirt race because he's proven he can handle it but I don't think he's proven he's better.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't disagree with any of this. Accept for the part about where Mott started him out. That doesn't mean much at all. What surface was Barbaro running on early? Big Brown? Lure? Kitten's Joy? Cigar? Zito continously placed Commentator in sprints. Sometimes, they get it wrong. And it's not even that they necessarily get wrong. Some horses, like the first three I mentioned, are good on both.

Only thing I'd say is that at this point, IWR does deserve the edge in a dirt race because he's proven he can handle it but I don't think he's proven he's better.

Cigar started on the dirt, and ran quite well on it.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Sure, Pioneer is much better on synthetics. Too bad the Derby's on dirt.

NT

I don't agree with any of this. First, I wouldn't even say that Pioneer is much better on synthetics. The two races were pretty close. Second, until anyone has proof that IWR likes dirt more than Pioneer, at this point, it's still conjecture and I would go with a bird in the hand (Pioneer's two wins) over the rest.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I would go with a bird in the hand (Pioneer's two wins) over the rest.

IMO, the bird in the hand would be a graded win on the dirt.

[King Glorious]

You give me Holy Bull versus Go Between on synthetic and I'm taking Holy Bull everytime. Why? Because he's a better horse. If Pioneer and IWR had never faced each other yet, then I would give the edge to IWR because of that known ability on the dirt. But to me, Pioneer's two wins cancel out the dirt advantage that IWR MAY have because we don't know that IWR actually does have it because Pioneer hasn't run on it.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

You give me Holy Bull versus Go Between on synthetic and I'm taking Holy Bull everytime. Why? Because he's a better horse. If Pioneer and IWR had never faced each other yet, then I would give the edge to IWR because of that known ability on the dirt. But to me, Pioneer's two wins cancel out the dirt advantage that IWR MAY have because we don't know that IWR actually does have it because Pioneer hasn't run on it.

Do you still think Stardom Bound is going to win the Derby?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Do you still think Stardom Bound is going to win the Derby?

She can't run in a race she won't be entered in. To answer in a different way, I still think that the two best 3yos this year are both fillies, SB and Rachel Alexandra and I think either of them could win the Derby if entered and I like SB over Rachel.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

She can't run in a race she won't be entered in. To answer in a different way, I still think that the two best 3yos this year are both fillies, SB and Rachel Alexandra and I think either of them could win the Derby if entered and I like SB over Rachel.

Wow.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

She can't run in a race she won't be entered in. To answer in a different way, I still think that the two best 3yos this year are both fillies, SB and Rachel Alexandra and I think either of them could win the Derby if entered and I like SB over Rachel.

Hmmm...