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Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance
I didn't ask you if you'd play her at 8/5.
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I know she was 8/5 on Ehorse ... and when I looked at Betfair she was 1.6-to-1 for and a shade more against
Even if she was 5/4 where you are ... it's not my thing betting horses at that short of a price ... but I'd still call that price an overlay. She's much better than the donkeys that have been going over there and winning that race every year.
It still is horse racing though and trouble happens. Desert Party - who was far less likely to win than Indian Blessing - had a perfect trip in his race ... but the problem for him was that Regal Ranson rated kindly on the lead over an obvious rail biased race track.
Trips play a huge role in the outcome of races ... which is why making win bets on short priced horses is the wrong thing to do long term. Even at 5/4 - it would have been tempting for me to pass on her in that spot. Diabolical is long in the tooth - Black Seventeen reportedly had to be walked off the track - and while Big City Man was a fairly useful American juvenile in good form over there .. his dirt form isn't competitive with IB's dirt form.
03-28-2009, 01:12 PM
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