First 2009 March Madness thread

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Saturday Morning update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: UNC, Duke, FSU, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: UCLA, Washington, Arizona St, Cal
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, Temple/Duquesne
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 39 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 6 spots open.

Changes Today:
* Maryland replaces South Carolina after stepping up and beating Wake while SC loses to Mississippi State.
* Florida falls off the board losing to Auburn.
* Virginia Tech falls off the board losing a heartbreaker to UNC.
* Bid in the A-10 gets stolen as Xavier and Dayton both go down in the semis.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beat Wake and I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Wisconsin- Keeping them here but barring a disastrous performance against Ohio State today in the Big Ten tournament they should be fine. Their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? Not right now... but very close. Another win over Purdue would do it. OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU would be a bonus and assure their bid but I think they're in pretty good shape. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
Rhode Island took a loss they really couldn't afford on Saturday against UMass and finished the job against Duqusne. Temple stays in the picture by routing St Joes. Right now, I'd give the slot to St. Mary's, because I'm convinced they are worthy with a healthy Patty Mills and they have one shot more to prove he's healthy. Their resume is awfully thin, however, and are my last team in right now.

Seeds
1: UNC*, Pitt, UConn, Louisville*
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Villanova
4: Washington*, Missouri*, West Virginia, Xavier
5: Purdue, UCLA, Gonzaga*, Florida State
6: LSU*, Clemson, Arizona State, Marquette
7: Illinois, Utah*, Tennessee, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Minnesota
10: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, SDSU, VCU*
12: St. Mary's, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, Utah St*
13: Temple/Duquesne*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Buffalo/MAC*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton/AE*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, SWAC*, MEAC*

Saturday Evening update, with seed projections.
LOCKS
ACC: Unc, Duke, Fsu, Clemson, Wake Forest, Boston College
Big East: Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota
Big XII: Kansas, Oklahoma, MISSOURI, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Ucla, Washington, Arizona St, Cal, USC*
SEC: LSU, Tennessee
Mountain West: UTAH, Byu
A-10: Xavier, Dayton, TEMPLE
Conference USA: MEMPHIS
Horizon: Butler, CLEVELAND STATE
WCC: GONZAGA

So that's 40 teams in 11 conferences. If all of the conferences are won by teams in the above list, plus 20 conferences with an autobid but no lock, that leaves 5 spots open.

Changes Today:
* USC steals a bid from someone by upsetting the Pac-10 conference tournament after underperforming all year.
* Mississippi State moves into the championship game of the truly mediocre SEC. Win would kick SDSU out of the bracket.

ACC:
Maryland- Struggled with NC State but got a win they HAD to have. Beating Wake means I think they move to the right side. IN

Big East:

Big Ten:
Michigan- Beat Iowa in the first round, they are IN. 6-9 against the top 50 and 10-11 against the top 100, even if the road record blows.
Wisconsin- I think people are overrating their resume a bit to assume they are a lock, at just 4-10 against the top 50, and just 18-12 overall. I still think they get in, but their resume doesn't scream success, however. IN
Penn State- Beat Illinois 2X, MSU, and split with Purdue, Minny & Michigan, is that enough with that horrific nonconference schedule?? No... but very close. 4th last OUT

Big XII:

Pac-10:
Arizona- Loses to rival ASU and probably keeps them OUT of the first time in 25 years. Their resume is still pretty strong even with all the losses though, my 3rd last team out.

SEC:
South Carolina- took a loss they could not afford in the quarterfinals of the SEC. OUT

Auburn- Been trying to avoid putting them up here but they keep trying to prove me wrong. They have the 10-6 SEC record and won essentially a play-in game with Florida. Lost to Tennessee today which might have moved them to the right side of the bubble. OUT, for now, my 2nd last team out.

Mountain West:
SDSU- Probably locks up a bid by sweeping 3 games from the Rebels to go with their otherwise OK resume. Beating BYU means I think they're in pretty good shape, plus they played awfully well in defeat in the championship game. IN

New Mexico- 12-4 in a tough conference is tough to ignore but man have they flown under the radar. I think they are just OUT at this point. There will be a lot of sweating in Albequerque this weekend.

Missouri Valley:
Creighton- if they had won the Illinois State game in the semis they would have locked up a bid but now they have to sweat. I think they're on the right side of the bubble right now with their 9-5 record against the top 100 and sharing the league title with UNI but certainly are playing with fire. IN


Others:
USC winning the Pac-10 means someone had to go, and that someone was St. Mary's. If it comes down to St. Mary's vs. SDSU for the final spot, despite the head to head win, I think you have to go with SDSU. Their out of conference performance was pretty dreadful but their in-conference performance in a brutal league was excellent. I hope they both get in over one of the Big 10 teams but that's unlikely given the committee's previous record. If Mississippi State wins tomorrow they take SDSU's spot in the bracket.

Seeds
1: Louisville*, UNC, Pitt, UConn
2: Memphis*, Michigan State*, Kansas, Duke
3: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Missouri*
4: Washington*, Villanova, West Virginia, Florida State*
5: Purdue, Arizona State, Gonzaga*, Xavier
6: Clemson, UCLA, Marquette, Utah*
7: LSU, Illinois, Tennessee*, Butler
8: BYU, Texas, Oklahoma State, Cal
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Boston College, Ohio State
10: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Siena*
11: Maryland, Creighton, Utah St*, VCU*
12: USC*, Cleveland St*, Western Kentucky*, SDSU
13: Temple*, UNI*, American*, North Dakota St*
14: Akron*, SFA/Southland*, Binghamton*, Radford*
15: Robert Morris*, Portland St*, Cornell*, East Tenn St*
16: Chattanooga*, Big West*, Morehead St*, Alabama St*, Morgan State*