3/14 (FG): Louisiana Derby Day

[Indian Charlie]

I'm going chalk here, FF and Papa Clem.

I think FF may be sitting on a big effort here.

[Bobby Fischer]

Patena has a great pedigree, he has a gorgeous stride visually, has some bottom from running over that tiring woodbine surface, and every time Dutrow gets his hands on a somewhat talented animal they run a career best. I hope either Friesan Fire(my #1 Derby Contender) beats him outright so I can say "I told you so", or that Patena is so impressive that it overshadows a strong race from Friesan Fire and Patena gets all the attention and money. I think Patena is a quality horse who will be best from 7f to 1 1/16.

Papa Clem - will handle dirt fine, I think he will tire on this surface regardless of being on the lead. Is tough to toss.

Tossing Giant Oak from the exacta. I think his derby hopes end here(unless he re-groups in a possibly weak Blue Grass), but I know he has fans, so I hope he does well - i've been wrong before!

Uno Mas and Free Country have every right to clunk up for 3rd or 4th (hopefully both) to juice up a dime super or trifecta. Which may be my only play here since I like both favs and tossing a 3rd or 4th choice in Giant Oak

[-BT-]

might be a stupid question but oh well, does everyone think Rachel Alexandra is a free square for these PK4-5's? I've never seen her race but obviously her form looks impresssive.
with that being said i think FF is in for a tough race and would HIGHLY doubt she's 5-2 or less by post time. I really think Pegasus and Terrian have a good shot here, especially at those juicy prices

-bt-

[Scav]

Originally Posted by -BT-

might be a stupid question but oh well, does everyone think Rachel Alexandra is a free square for these PK4-5's? I've never seen her race but obviously her form looks impresssive.
with that being said i think FF is in for a tough race and would HIGHLY doubt she's 5-2 or less by post time. I really think Pegasus and Terrian have a good shot here, especially at those juicy prices

-bt-

the only argument people could have with her is first time FG's dirt strip, otherwise, she lays over the field

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by Scav

the only argument people could have with her is first time FG's dirt strip, otherwise, she lays over the field

And the longgggggg stretch..definitely catches some horses by surprise, but Calvin is familiar with it.

Weather is still 50 to 60% rain, but they can't seem to decide when this front is coming through or if it will drop down far enough to affect us, but my suggestion is to cap for dry and back up with wet conditions.

Interesting tidbit didn't realize, if Friesan Fire wins the LA Derby he will be the first horse to win all 3 derby trials since Dixieland Heat in 1993.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by FGFan

And the longgggggg stretch..definitely catches some horses by surprise, but Calvin is familiar with it.

Weather is still 50 to 60% rain, but they can't seem to decide when this front is coming through or if it will drop down far enough to affect us, but my suggestion is to cap for dry and back up with wet conditions.

Interesting tidbit didn't realize, if Friesan Fire wins the LA Derby he will be the first horse to win all 3 derby trials since Dixieland Heat in 1993.

How does that turf course take water?

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by Scav

How does that turf course take water?

If it's a steady rain it takes it well, being sandy it drains well. But if we get a monsoonal type rain it will pool up.

One station says the big front and storms will move through around 6 pm but intermittent rain all day. Yet another station says the front may not make it down this far....

Here's some links to local weather radar:

http://www.wwltv.com/weather/pinpointmetro640a.html

http://www.wdsu.com/weather/grid.html

The Fair Grounds is near city park.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by -BT-

might be a stupid question but oh well, does everyone think Rachel Alexandra is a free square for these PK4-5's? I've never seen her race

Yep. Cross your fingers for $0.50 on the dollar and enjoy.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Yep. Cross your fingers for $0.50 on the dollar and enjoy.

1/2??

Maybe, but I doubt it, she is probably 1/5, although people might play Four Gifts because of Assmussen

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

1/2??

Maybe, but I doubt it, she is probably 1/5, although people might play Four Gifts because of Assmussen

I know she'll be shorter than that, but that's why you just take what you can get and use her in multi-race wagers and find runners elsewhere, because you're looking at anything from $2.40-$3.00 as an absolute top.

[Travis Stone]

Looks iffy...

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Looks iffy...

"I don't think the heavy stuff will come down for quite awhile...."

[Travis Stone]

This is a really good sequence of races. I wish the Oaks was not part of their big pick four and pick five offering, as I really find it hard to go against Rachel Alexandra. That said, the NO Handicap has lots of factors at play, the Muniz is extremely wide-open and the LA Derby is filled with various opinions.

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Looks iffy...

12:20 central... not looking good




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