Jan 24th at GP just keeps looking weirder and weirder

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Winning a turf race, when we are discussing a dirt race, reinforces what?

Absolutely nothing. As stated, was just a 'side note' that Kelly Leak ran back yesterday in a grass mile and ran well.

[blackthroatedwind]

I figure the points of the post ( other than the usual DrugS scream " Look at me.....I'm smart! " ) are mainly that the two horses questioned by Beyer could only have run " better " than some thought and certainly not worse......and that, as usual, the times at Gulfstream are perplexing for whatever reasons. Is it the timer? Probably not, as those problems are usually confined to the turf, but let's not forget last year's FOY debacle. Is it the track super? Always possible I suppose. Is it runup related? Not sure how that should dramatically affect final time but I suppose if they are perversely changing those during the day it is entirely possible.

Whatever the case, it was clear to anyone paying attention that the horses to take out of Dunkirk's race were the pacesetters. I just hope DrugS bet Zegfield. I know I did.

[Kasept]

Point of comparison for 7f races the days leading up to and after the Sunshine card..



1/17:

1:24.24 $25k S/ALW (Cuba 92 BSF)
1:24.57 $35k/N3L (Ode to Roy 88 BSF)


1/21:

1:25.53 S/ALW 3yo-F (East to Eden 76 BSF)


-------------------------------------------

2/24:

1:25.0 MSW (Dunkirk 78)
1:09.10 (6f) SM Dash (This One's for Phil 116)

--------------------------------------------


1/25:

1:23.97 $30k MDN CLM 3yo (Todd Got Even 85 BSF)


1/28:

1:24.63 $6250 CLM (Early Release 79 BSF)


1/30:

1:24.15 Forward Gal (Frolic's Dream 95 BSF)
1:23.69 Hutcheson (Capt. Candyman Can 101 BSF)

[gales0678]

steve - are beyer's #'s wrong on some of these days?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - are beyer's #'s wrong on some of these days?

No.. but the track has been funky as can be. There have been windy days where the track is fast, but very cuppy, dry and hard to get over. There has been absolutely no rain for weeks on end. The inside was the worst place to be at times (deep and tiring), and everything wide was winning.. It's been a very confusing surface.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

No.. but the track has been funky as can be. There have been windy days where the track is fast, but very cuppy, dry and hard to get over. There has been absolutely no rain for weeks on end. The inside was the worst place to be at times (deep and tiring), and everything wide was winning.. It's been a very confusing surface.

steve can you get the track super on and ask him some questions about what drugs has brought up here?

maybe there are more answers

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve can you get the track super on and ask him some questions about what drugs has brought up here?

maybe there are more answers

If the Super knows he would be smart not to share them with the planet.. Moreover he he admits any changes in the surfaces it makes him look like a fool or worse a crook

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve can you get the track super on and ask him some questions about what drugs has brought up here? maybe there are more answers

Honestly? Those sharecroppers are lucky they can remember where they leave the keys to the tractors overnight. They're frequently not sure if there is water in the tanks of the wagons. They couldn't tell you where the sun sets. Their input would not be helpful..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

are beyer's #'s wrong on some of these days?

If the final times are accurate, the track and weather is consistant, and the races on the card are run at common distances on the dirt ... No .. the dirt figs are never going to be wrong any more than a single point or two.

If the final times aren't accurate, the track and weather is very inconsistant, and or the dirt races are run at oddball distances .. yes .. even the dirt figures can become nothing more than educated guesses.

The turf figures .. I personally don't bother even looking at them.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If the final times are accurate, the track and weather is consistant, and the races on the card are run at common distances on the dirt ... No .. the dirt figs are never going to be wrong any more than a single point or two.

If the final times aren't accurate, the track and weather is very inconsistant, and or the dirt races are run at oddball distances .. yes .. even the dirt figures can become nothing more than educated guesses.

The turf figures .. I personally don't bother even looking at them.

I don't admire yours.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by gales0678

steve - are beyer's #'s wrong on some of these days?

I admire your determination.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Kasept

1:25.0 MSW (Dunkirk 78)
1:09.10 (6f) SM Dash (This One's for Phil 116)

Something a touch odd that I forgot to mention is that Beyer - or whoever does the GP figs - seemed to subtract one point from TOFP's race - and perhaps High Resolve as well. They also added a point to the earlier dirt races.

Meaning TOFP's 117 became a 116. While Dunkirk's 77 became a 78 and Indy's Sonata's 69 became a 70. etc.

The discrepancy between a 1:09.10 for 6fs and a 1:25.00 for 7fs is supposed to be 40 points. Not 38 points.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I figure the points of the post ( other than the usual DrugS scream " Look at me.....I'm smart! " )

I just felt a little heartened this morning when I saw that two horses I overrated for a brief point last year -Georgie Boy and Spring House - had the #1 and #2 stories on the DRF's website for a pair of Grade 2 stakes wins over the weekend.