2/14: Magna 5 (Fritchie-Gr. II)

[Indian Charlie]

It's Dream Rush's last start too.

She going to AP Indy.

[pick4]

The Dream Rush of 2008 and 2009 is not the same horse who won The Test.
The unknown is 3 Seventh Street. She destroyed much weaker fields in NY and is taking a major class hike. Can she rate and finish strong against the toughest field she's faced? I don't know.

I think Dick Dutrow's horse will come off the pace. By The Light is a confusing horse. However anything Dutrow puts on the track in a wide open race merits respect. If a horse is going to win from off the pace why not Fascinatin' Rhythm? It's her home track and she cuts back in distance. Richard Small can still train a horse with his current stats a statistical anomaly. Access Fee looks like a talented filly. I think she has a good chance in this race.

If I had to put in my wager now I'd go 4,5,8 in leg 1.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by pick4

The Dream Rush of 2008 and 2009 is not the same horse who won The Test.
The unknown is 3 Seventh Street. She destroyed much weaker fields in NY and is taking a major class hike. Can she rate and finish strong against the toughest field she's faced? I don't know.

I think Dick Dutrow's horse will come off the pace. By The Light is a confusing horse. However anything Dutrow puts on the track in a wide open race merits respect. If a horse is going to win from off the pace why not Fascinatin' Rhythm? It's her home track and she cuts back in distance. Richard Small can still train a horse with his current stats a statistical anomaly. Access Fee looks like a talented filly. I think she has a good chance in this race.

If I had to put in my wager now I'd go 4,5,8 in leg 1.

I'm not sure I want Fascinatin' Rhythm after she was the 2/5 shot who couldn't hold on to kick off the Magna 5 in week 1. Her trainer is certainly capable but he's struggling mightily right now and he has had no success adding blinkers and decides to make that move today.

I think Seventh Street is dicey but beating up on bad horses in allowance races in NY is often just as good as beating mid-range stakes company in the mid-Atlantic. She beat Salt Water Reign two back and that won has scored two in a row since. The biggest question mark on SS is whether she can win a race on a dry surface. She's scored three times on wet tracks which has to make one a bit suspicious.

By the Light was fully stretched to beat a very soft field last time out and is another who's going to be horribly overbet.

If I'm looking to bomb in here it might be with the Mountaineer shipper but I'll use Seventh Street for sure.

NT

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not sure I want Fascinatin' Rhythm after she was the 2/5 shot who couldn't hold on to kick off the Magna 5 in week 1. Her trainer is certainly capable but he's struggling mightily right now and he has had no success adding blinkers and decides to make that move today.

I think Seventh Street is dicey but beating up on bad horses in allowance races in NY is often just as good as beating mid-range stakes company in the mid-Atlantic. She beat Salt Water Reign two back and that won has scored two in a row since. The biggest question mark on SS is whether she can win a race on a dry surface. She's scored three times on wet tracks which has to make one a bit suspicious.

By the Light was fully stretched to beat a very soft field last time out and is another who's going to be horribly overbet.

If I'm looking to bomb in here it might be with the Mountaineer shipper but I'll use Seventh Street for sure.

NT

What about the far outside horse, Access fee? Obviously there's no worries about liking the track. Dutrow's horse has really never run a bad race, and Seventh Street is probably too good to toss. The question mark is the Mountaineer shipper on the rail. Seems like legitimized her class a bit in her last two, but I always feels dicey including Charlestown or Mountaineer shippers at Laurel.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm not sure I want Fascinatin' Rhythm after she was the 2/5 shot who couldn't hold on to kick off the Magna 5 in week 1. Her trainer is certainly capable but he's struggling mightily right now and he has had no success adding blinkers and decides to make that move today.

I think Seventh Street is dicey but beating up on bad horses in allowance races in NY is often just as good as beating mid-range stakes company in the mid-Atlantic. She beat Salt Water Reign two back and that won has scored two in a row since. The biggest question mark on SS is whether she can win a race on a dry surface. She's scored three times on wet tracks which has to make one a bit suspicious.

By the Light was fully stretched to beat a very soft field last time out and is another who's going to be horribly overbet.

If I'm looking to bomb in here it might be with the Mountaineer shipper but I'll use Seventh Street for sure.

NT

Your points are valid. This was my first impression selections. I reserve the right to change. However the Fritchie looks like the kind of race one could like a different horse each time you cap the race. Seventh Street cost a bundle and McLaughlin is a sharpie. SS might be ratable and I could include her as she has talent and you make a good argument in her favor. Salt Water Reign won on the 7th which was a speed favoring track. She's a decent NY bred inner dirt type. She would not have a chance in a race like this.

As far as Dickie D's nag, I've seen that horse run big from off the pace last spring. While I'm glad I have time to recap this race, I don't what Richard E Dutrow Jr to screw me as I've been screwed when I've left his horses off tickets especially in wide open races. I don't want to play ALL here and if I feel I have no other choice I'll pass on the wager. I don't think ALL is neccessary as we can narrow this down to 3 or 4 which gives us room to spread a bit in the next four races.

[NTamm1215]

It is clearly a very fun race and there are a number of ways to go as three of us have made good arguments for four horses and haven't even discussed the probable favorite.

As far as Access Fee, she is clearly in career best form right now and she is working beautifully for this effort. Dream Rush seems to have had some of the runaway speed she showed in the past trained out of her as she's rated in her last two starts. That might be significant for AF because she'll really have to deal only with Now It Begins, who she handled easily last time out.

NT

[pick4]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It is clearly a very fun race and there are a number of ways to go as three of us have made good arguments for four horses and haven't even discussed the probable favorite.

As far as Access Fee, she is clearly in career best form right now and she is working beautifully for this effort. Dream Rush seems to have had some of the runaway speed she showed in the past trained out of her as she's rated in her last two starts. That might be significant for AF because she'll really have to deal only with Now It Begins, who she handled easily last time out.

NT

Dream Rush was always speed when she was in top form. Perhaps she's lost a step? West Point made a killing with her during her 3 year old season and sold at the right time. If you look at the 5/25/08 race at Belmont that was a terrible race for DR. As bad as it looks on paper it was even worse watching.

Maybe Access Fee is the one to beat. She has never run a bad race and the off the board finish on the IDT @ Aqueduct she ran wide into fast fractions and had the lead before tiring late. Laurel is her home track.

[pick4]

Santa Anita 4th is another toughie. Booted has won sprinting on the grass going 6 and going long stalking a hot pace a 1 1/16. He was a victim of a hot pace in the stakes race as that race fell apart. He looks intersting moving back to a 7f on turn race. Angie Engineer has done little wrong in his three race career. He looks to have a lot of upside and should relish the distance as he climbs the class ladder.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by pick4

Dream Rush was always speed when she was in top form. Perhaps she's lost a step? West Point made a killing with her during her 3 year old season and sold at the right time. If you look at the 5/25/08 race at Belmont that was a terrible race for DR. As bad as it looks on paper it was even worse watching.

Maybe Access Fee is the one to beat. She has never run a bad race and the off the board finish on the IDT @ Aqueduct she ran wide into fast fractions and had the lead before tiring late. Laurel is her home track.

I think Dream Rush, at this stage in her career, doesn't want any part of 7F, and running on a track that she's never set foot on is enough for me to toss her. I think the big question is...who will be able to rate. I think there's enough tactical speed so nobody (like the rail horse) will get loose on the lead.