134th New Zealand Derby - Feb 29, 2009

[_ed_]

COURT RULER
Gelding
Viking Ruler - Free Court

Starts: 9
1st: 2
2nd: 0
3rd: 3
Earnings: $67,350


Court Ruler in his 28-1 upset win against older horses in the G3 Trentham Stakes.

Videos:
Trentham Stakes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a0BFLtGa6U

PROS:
Stakes winner over Derby distance.

CONS:
- Questionable field.
- Very poor form prior.

[_ed_]

MY SCOTSGREY
Gelding
Golan - My Chameleon

Starts: 5
1st: 1
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $60,220

PROS:
- No problem with distance
- Competed well in Victoria in the spring

CONS:
- The VRC Derby, in my opinion, takes a lot out of horses and you don't see much more of them in their 3yo seasons afterwards. Having to run another Derby just a few months later is a huge ask.

[_ed_]

DOWN THE ROAD
Gelding
Danroad - Dixies Girl

Starts: 8
1st: 3
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $107,928

1st Championship Stakes (G2)
2nd Great Northern Guineas (G2)


Down The Road winning the Championship Stakes today.

Videos:
Championship Stakes - http://www.ellerslie.co.nz/show.cfm?...4/Race%207.swf

PROS:
- Consistent
- 3 starts at Ellerslie for a stakes win, a stakes 2nd and a 3rd.

CONS:
- Not sure if he has the acceleration of Jungle Boots, Tell A Tale, Le Baron, etc.

[_ed_]

LATE ADDITION
Gelding
Traditionally - Tralae

Starts: 9
1st: 2
2nd: 2
3rd: 2
Earnings: $33,710

3rd Guineas Prelude
4th Great Northern Guineas (G2)

PROS:
- Consistent
- No doubt about his stamina

CONS:
- Looked a bit one-paced in his 3rd and 4th against the really good 3yos. Did show some acceleration in his undercard win yesterday though.
- 19th on the order of entry.

[_ed_]

Updated order of entry...

Tell A Tale
Le Baron
Juice
Down The Road
Coniston Bluebird
The Meista
Moveovr
Spontaneous
Court Ruler
My Scotsgrey
Easy Ryder
Jungle Boots
Izonit
I Robot
The Spaniard
Late Addition
Sufficient
Heza Karma Kazi
-----------
Fears Nothing
Gallant
Carchelo
Diamond Glitter
Brunel
Sun Ruler

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by _ed_

Updated order of entry...

Tell A Tale
Le Baron
Juice
Down The Road
Coniston Bluebird
The Meista
Moveovr
Spontaneous
Court Ruler
My Scotsgrey
Easy Ryder
Jungle Boots
Izonit
I Robot
The Spaniard
Late Addition
Sufficient
Heza Karma Kazi
-----------
Fears Nothing
Gallant
Carchelo
Diamond Glitter
Brunel
Sun Ruler

Slowly catching up on stuff... thanks for the update!

[_ed_]

It might not change much from that. It doesn't sound like any of the horses outside the field are running this weekend, so they need withdrawals.

And there might be a couple - Juice could go to the Oaks instead, and Moveovr didn't look like a Derby horse AT ALL last Saturday when he was last in the Championship.

More news, Down The Road is owned in Hong Kong now and will be going there soon after the Derby. The HK Derby will be his target next year.

10 days to go, let's look at the odds...

Jungle Boots - 5.5
Le Baron - 6
Down The Road - 6
Coniston Bluebird - 7
My Scotsgrey - 7
Tell A Tale - 9
Easy Ryder - 13
Sufficient - 13
The Meista - 13
Gallant - 26
Late Addition - 26
The Spaniard - 26
Court Ruler - 31
Fears Nothing - 31
Heza Karma Karzi - 31
I Robot - 31
Izonit - 41
Juice - 61
Moveovr - 61
Spontaneous - 61
Sun Ruler - 81
Carchelo - 101
Diamond Glitter - 101
Brunel - 151

In my opinion...

Too high - Tell A Tale, Easy Ryder, Sufficient, The Meista, Gallant, Late Addition, The Spaniard

Too low - Coniston Bluebird, My Scotsgrey, Moveovr

[_ed_]

IZONIT
Colt
Volksraad - Label Basher

Starts: 11
1st: 1
2nd: 1
3rd: 1
Earnings: $39,375

3rd Levin Classic (G1)

PROS:
- Has proven his ability against the best with a G1 placing
- Has the breeding - full-brother to G1 winner Dezigna

CONS:
- Unplaced beyond a mile

[_ed_]

HEZA KARMA KARZI
Colt
Choisir - Sutra

Starts: 11
1st: 1
2nd: 0
3rd: 2
Earnings: $23,253


PROS:
- The owners (Sutherland, Timpson & Walker) don't usually have only average horses.
- John Sargent is a top trainer of 3yos
- Ran 3rd in a stakes race over 2100m, so distance should be ok.

CONS:
- Maybe just a little bit behind in terms of class.

[_ed_]

THE SPANIARD
Gelding
Storm Creek - Di Talento

Starts: 7
1st: 2
2nd: 0
3rd: 1
Earnings: $30,400


PROS:
- Can't deny the talent
- Was finishing as strongly as anything in the Championship (5th)

CONS:
- A bit of uncertainty about the distance.

[_ed_]

BIG NEWS: Top-quality filly Puttanesca has been sold and new owner Y K Wong is paying the $70,000 late entry fee for the Derby. And the plan is still to go to the Oaks after that. Very tough, but they must think she can do it.

PUTTANESCA
Filly
Bertolini - Tesoro


Starts: 7
1st: 2
2nd: 1
3rd: 2
Earnings: $121,312

1st Royal Stakes (G2)
2nd Desert Gold Stakes (G2)
3rd Sir Tristram Fillies Classic (G2)
3rd Eulogy Stakes (G3)


Puttanesca winning the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie.

Videos:
Royal Stakes - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSp68suaUPk

PROS:
Two races beyond a mile for a G2 win and G2 placing.

CONS:
This is a last-minute decision. Can she be at her peak for the Derby next week, when she was originally meant to be peaking for the Oaks two weeks later?