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#22
02-04-2009, 10:52 PM
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#23
02-04-2009, 11:22 PM
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#24
02-05-2009, 08:19 AM
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Remember what we're trying to accomplish here... Not so much trying to find 'typical' race angles as much as trying to decipher what kind of horse, style, trip, etc. wins these turf sprints...
It looks like there is plenty of early lick in here... GIRL GLITTER is a 5f specialist that can be on pace in halves run <:45... KIT CAT CATON is one of the cutback candidates that Stan Gold looks to have been racing into shape, stretching out in anticipation of a return to one turn. Can get the half in :44 and change on best... Rebecca Maker's other horse REGAL BIRD, (she has BLOOD DIAMONDS in as well), and WW's MISS SHANGAI both get :45 half miles. Given these early pace types, it sure seems like STORMY LAKE will get the trip she wants tucking in behind Kit Cat and Glitter early. Blood Diamonds, who may have a tiny class edge if ready off the break, and MYMISSJULIAC also figure to be in draft and pounce mode. We'll dissect this afterwards too... Want to spend as much time figuring out what happened as we do anticipating the result.
__________________
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#25
02-05-2009, 09:00 AM
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This race looks to go through Stormy Lake. However, there might be some ways to make money with her.
BLOOD DIAMONDS- The class drop is respectable but it seems like Becky Maker's other runner is the one to watch in here. Polytrack form is not always on par with turf and this gal needed a race to get going early in '08. Next time might be the right time. JUDGE'S PRIDE- Empire bred pushed the pace going long last time in her first start since an early December run on the inner. She wired a field of NY bred MSW runners at the Spa in August '07 at a huge price, so speed going short has been her game in the past. The bug boy has the call today and he will undoubtedly push her hard from the gate, however, she looks to be much slower early than a number of runners in here. CLASSIC LAKE- Plodder is in deep even with the pace expected to be hot. Orseno shows positive numbers with horses cutting back in distance, but thsi gal may end up in a different zip code after three furlongs. Tough to endorse going short. DANCES FOR TIPS- Another who was unsuccessfully stretched out in her last two, but do note that her maiden win came sprinting on the weeds when she ran Laurel MSW ladies off their feet. Her speed has been dulled by the last two, so it's tough to imagine she can make an impact today. KIT CAT CATON- Another from the stretched out sprinter brigade who's cutting back and this turnback worked once before as she broke her maiden when shortening up from a 1 1/16 effort over the Calder lawn. She ran into trouble in her first two efforts against winners and was then over her head last time out. Improvement should not come as a surprise. TICKLE ME TICK- She still hasn't crossed under the wire first in 12 career starts and the turf seems to be a white flag in terms of her dirt ability. If you like her, demand a HUGE price. GIRL GLITTER- Interesting daughter of Glitterman finally tried the weeds last time after being washed off during the summer at Calder. She has plenty of early zip and the trainer has done her no favors of late running her against males and then open sellers last time out. She's going 3rd off a 90+ day layoff, dropping in class, and might be able to outbreak her rivals to the inside. STORMY LAKE- Dropped in for a tag to get her maiden win after she didn't stack up with MSW runners in Kentucky. Her debut came on the turf at Kentucky Downs and she chased the pace for a bit and then faltered. That form is occasionally tough to use as a gauge for actual ability because of the odd configuration. She seems to be on her game now, has no problem going short and starts for a barn that has been absolutely spectacular at the meet. MYMISSJULIAC- Fawkes trainee goes 2nd off a layoff and exits a 3rd place effort against similar on the main where she broke slowly and was beaten to the early lead. She's posted two good workouts since that effort and now gets back to the surface over which she earned her only win. A stalk and pounce trip would make her very dangerous. SPLIT THE CLOUDS- First try on turf for daughter of Mount McKinley. She broke her maiden at first asking on the turf at Tampa way back in late March and her first start off the long break was a tad disappointing. She was, however, very fresh and was given an overly aggressive ride. Now that some of the rust is gone she should be set for a better effort. REGAL BIRD- Well-bred daughter of Grand Slam was pounded down to 5/2 against similar claimers on the main track and she was never involved. It's now back to the grass, over which she has 1 exacta finish in two tries. She wired the field in her maiden score but has little chance of getting the early edge here, that coupled with the downward spiral she's in makes her tough to back. MISS SHANGAI- Ward is removing the blinkers from this gal as she has been a pop and stop maven over the last four months. The far outside post is always advantageous for a speed horse but there has to be considerable doubt about whether she can cross and clear. Connections will earn her plenty of support, so she'll be short in the value department. My pick is STORMY LAKE, but KIT CAT CATON and GIRL GLITTER are good longshots for the exacta. Good luck! NT
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#26
02-05-2009, 10:48 AM
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Bar shoes on front for Blood Diamonds. Like her a little less now.
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#27
02-05-2009, 10:51 AM
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#28
02-05-2009, 10:59 AM
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I think Stormy Lake is gonna be underlaid. Her lone turf start was far from anything great, and she experienced a pretty big figure jump for her last win. Sophisticated Lass had a similar jump to run second that day, and she returned to be fifth in a similar spot yesterday. It's also Stormy Lake's first time against winners and she has all of one race that makes her competitive with these. Turf sprinting is probably her game and I wouldn't be shocked to see her win, but at 3-1 or so, I'll pass.
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#29
02-05-2009, 11:10 AM
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Yep. I agree ,sir. Can't play with her(too low,) or against her. It's a useless race.
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#30
02-05-2009, 11:52 AM
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I landed on Kit Cat Caton for the obvious reasons previously mentioned on this thread by others.
I've struggled with these turf sprints, but I've had a little success lately with cutback runners. Theses races are becoming more and more popular, so there's a necessity to find a solution. IMO, it makes it double tough when the races are run in NY, especially NY Breds.
__________________
Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#31
02-05-2009, 12:06 PM
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For one thing, the fact that J.V. gets back on a horse that totally bombed as a favorite(against some of these) is a big red light(for me) as far as playing this race goes. Unless I know all about the why in that, I can't begin to select a winner of this race. They are gunna consider it their business, and so I am surprised anyone bets a penny on the race(without knowing about that situation.) "Switching to the grass" just isn't enough for me.
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#32
02-05-2009, 12:18 PM
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I'll play Mymissjuliac. Throw out her last race which was first out against winners where she broke a bit slow and her maiden breaker is contentious enough. Would like to see Coa sit right off the 7 & 12 (and maybe 13) and pounce down the lane.
good luck all
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#33
02-05-2009, 03:15 PM
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Holy crap.
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#35
02-05-2009, 03:17 PM
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#36
02-05-2009, 03:28 PM
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#38
02-05-2009, 05:14 PM
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Thanks guys. If only I would've bet her.
...but she wasnt in for the full tag. 
__________________
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#39
02-05-2009, 11:27 PM
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great call declans harbor
she sure prefers the short turf sprint! Are all Landson Robbins horses leaving McPeek? mcpeek won just about everything on turf this week other than the Robbins filly stormy lake 2 wednesday , the 3rd today
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#40
02-06-2009, 05:56 AM
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