This One's for Phil goes nuts...

[cmorioles]

Just so we can be clear, here are the Beyers earned by the top 4 in the race, including Saturday, most recent first (Brown-Dirt, Green-Turf, Blue-Synthetic):

This One's for Phil: 117, 76, 75, 66, 79, 71, 81, 33, 43
You Lucky Mann: 112, 93, 107, 79, 79, 84
Kelly Leak: 98,84, 83, 57, 82, 73
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 86, 60, 67

Here are the figures if you build in the adjustment Beyer recommends for maturity, about 1.5 points per month:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,86, 86, 64, 90, 84
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

Then, there is the turf and synthetics come back slower, so we can adjust a few of those to the same scale as dirt:

This One's for Phil: 117, 80, 80, 72, 86, 79, 90, 45, 54
You Lucky Mann: 112, 95, 112, 86, 87, 93
Kelly Leak: 98,88, 88, 59, 93, 85
Ju Jitsu Jax: 97, 90, 66, 75

When adjusting for those things, only one horse really "jumped" in that race, the winner. The difference from the previous top:

This One's for Phil: +27
You Lucky Mann: 0
Kelly Leak: +5
Ju Jitsu Jax: +7

Keep in mind, under normal circumstances, the winner was the least likely to improve with 8 starts under his built. The others make a lot more sense considering fewer races and/or surface switches.