Most Powerful Handicapping Angles

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

andys w list on trips n traps

[31lengths]

The Goldberg angle. Anything that Hank picks....stay away.

From now on I shall be called - "average schmo".

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Arson Squad in the Meadowlands Cup

Is he Donn H. bound?

That's a good angle though, very strong. With the new surfaces floating around, it helps bury some of those stronger, preferred surfaces a little more. Good stuff!

[TheSpyder]

Horses third time out with great grass breeding that have been going sprints on the dirt and then moved to the grass.

Horses for courses

Back class of long layoffs that have shown little prior to layoff.(with good trainer)

[dean smith]

Don't forget to be on the lookout for omens and keep a pad and pencil on the nightstand to write down your dreams for later analysis. Remember, it is just as important to read your tea leaves as it is to read your racing form. When I handicap I always make sure I surround myself with various lucky charms and on big event days (as well as the second Sunday following any new moon), I make sure the sacrifice of a live chicken or goat takes place.

If a horse shows up in the program with the same name or has similar markings as your dead cat, do not dismiss this as "coincidence" or mere superstition. Certain celestial phenomena and planetary alignments often times provide big payouts to those in tune with the heavens. A horse with the same name as your deceased pet may be the cosmos' way of telling you something....especially if it happened to be a fast cat.

[dean smith]

Okay, the superstition angle was B.S.

Don't know if it falls into the "angle" catagory, or if it's just something to watch out for, but second-timers coming off disappointing debuts in which they broke slowly or held an inside post along the rail are worth a second look. The dirt being kicked in their face for the first time and/or the rail messing with their psyches can make their first trip a trying one. I read this or heard it on the show (can't remember which) and it makes a lot of sense.

Otherwise, I'd really stress the MSW to Maiden Claiming that someone mentioned before as a general handicapping rule or angle.

[infield_line]

when a first line barn tries a young horse in an allowance or stakes without success(but showing some talent), they will be dropping them for a tag at a level that they should be very competitive. The idea is that Pletcher, Dutrow, Baffert, don't have time to play around with horses destined for the claiming ranks........ they want a claim.. today

I also love 3 year olds that have been on the shelf and given time to grow up after an initial race or two to gain some experience

I/L

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

claiming horses that have won at the level entered today after getting beat in a higher class race.

2nd time starters in msw that get a better post position ie 10 hole or wider to the 1-8 hole

[ArlJim78]

the distance cut-back was mentioned, and while I like this angle in certain spots, its far from fool-proof. some cutbacks are too far or don't make sense, and on some circuits cutbacks don't work worth a damn period. on the contrary, on some circuit cutbacks do very well. you have to do your research.

two examples, last year if you did nothing other than make flat win bets on every horse at Keeneland going route to sprint, you would have made a tidy +16% roi. do the same thing last year at Arlington and you lose 35%, at Santa Anita you lose 45%.

so I guess i'm just saying it is a good angle, but it takes some work to find the spots where it is best used.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

the distance cut-back was mentioned, and while I like this angle in certain spots, its far from fool-proof. some cutbacks are too far or don't make sense, and on some circuits cutbacks don't work worth a damn period. on the contrary, on some circuit cutbacks do very well. you have to do your research.

two examples, last year if you did nothing other than make flat win bets on every horse at Keeneland going route to sprint, you would have made a tidy +16% roi. do the same thing last year at Arlington and you lose 35%, at Santa Anita you lose 45%.

so I guess i'm just saying it is a good angle, but it takes some work to find the spots where it is best used.

Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.

fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Good data, but hard to know if those diffs are just random or real. If you can show a positive roi for the previous year or two at Keenland, that would mean more. Or better yet, include some measure of the uncertainty in the +16% fig.

fwiw, my fav angle is betting against a claimer who won last time out but is racing again for the same claiming value.

--Dunbar

I don't know what the uncertainty would be for that number at Keeneland, but you're right it could be an aberration because of the relatively small number of races run there in one year. there does seem to be a polytrack edge for cutbacks, if you exclude Arlington that is.

fyi, on your favorite bet against angle, i just ran a query for that scenario for last year and found that you're definitely right in avoiding that one.

[wapete]

I only have anecdotal research to support this angle, which may not be the "most powerful" or academic but has certainly had its share of success.

I'll be glad to share it with you but understand that it cannot be found in the PPs, it requires you to be at the paddock pre-race.

First Step - Take a good look at owners as they enter the paddock. Keep a keen eye on the owner's group for young wives, hot daughters, emirate airlines stewardess and other Boom-Ba-Latties.

Second Step - Identify which group of owners has the most "back-class" in their posse.

Third Step - When the Jockeys enter the paddock, confirm that the Jockey riding the horse owned by the group selected in the second step is also interested in "back-class." Hugs, oddly-long handshakes, wandering eyes are all clear signals.

Fourth Step - Place a large win wager with confidence on those connections, regardless of horse. As logic indicates, that jockey has a solid 10 minute post parade to think about "back-class" and the possibility of meeting those owners again in the winner’s circle. Based on my experience, by the time the gates open, that horse has about an 80% chance of winning.

[dean smith]

That last tip actually makes a lot of sense.

When the owner(s) and/or trainer has gone to the trouble of bringing in all his people (friends, family, best looking hoes, etc.), he's probably not thinking, "this will be great! So-and-so's flying in, we'll party all day at the track, I'll get a chance to show off a little, and hopefully we'll finish fourth."

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you guys think a good angle to teach to newcomers to the sport is to watch the owners and their entourage in the paddock? Hypothetically speaking, if you actually knew who all the owners were for each specific race do you really think it matters how many people they have with them in the paddock? You're better off just playing numbers....

It's a great angle as long as the horse is stretching out after clunking up in a fast paced, but slow, sprint.

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you guys think a good angle to teach to newcomers to the sport is to watch the owners and their entourage in the paddock? Hypothetically speaking, if you actually knew who all the owners were for each specific race do you really think it matters how many people they have with them in the paddock? You're better off just playing numbers....

Tongue-in-cheek, DaHoss. I wasn't completely serious. No, I don't think newcomers should learn that sort of angle in a college course. That sort of knowledge will come later -- after they've washed out of school and hang out at the track everyday.

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

So you guys think a good angle to teach to newcomers to the sport is to watch the owners and their entourage in the paddock? Hypothetically speaking, if you actually knew who all the owners were for each specific race do you really think it matters how many people they have with them in the paddock? You're better off just playing numbers....

there are some goofy angles like that. At Emerald Downs, former NFL player turned trainer Junior Coffey is one of them. If he's got his Super Bowl ring on, then run to the windows, because he's getting his picture taken!!