Saratoga Analysis Wednesday 8/30 Part 1

The requests for the Pm list have exceeded 40 so far. I don't have the time to PM 40 people so I will post it here today. It pains me to think that those who have nothing better to do here than attempt to find flaws in my posting or even worse, those who think they are entitled to tell me what I can do with my hard work may benefit from this, but too many people requested nicely that I send them my thoughts(over 40 so far) for me not to post it. I hope I don't let you down and it is an honor. Lets start with the changes:
http://www.nyra.com/chart/today.asp?track=S


Race 1- race is off the turf and on the main at the same distance.
Liberation Day debuted two back a bit green and ran a nice race. In his last start on perhaps the deadest rail day of the meet, he was hard used the first quarter to get to the rail from the 11 post to chase an awesome winner. That race is better than it woud appear.
Defrizz has taken monster barn money twice, last time shockingly bet down agaisnt winners. Shows great works in the morning and switches to Edgar.
Sense Of Speed steps back up into MSW after a maiden claimer and draws nicely outside and is well bred for a wet surface.
Use the 6,12 as keys, save with 13.

race 2- Media City was extremely green while racing wide on the biggest inside speed/rail bias day of the meet, opening day, while chasing City Snitch. We've seen his recnt workouts and I can tell you right now he will be going, going, going, gone. Taggs horse Straight Romabce stumbled badly at the break last time losing all chance and then rushed up to chase a wicked pace on a dead rail. Worked great since. Hes the only one with a chance to get Media.
Key the 4, save with the 2.

race 3- Crayda's last was awesome. HUGE outside closing bias prevailed that day and she came damn close to hnaging on despite setting a very fast and contested pace. Pleasantly Envious has been very fast in her two dirt races at Suffolk. Connections drop her in for a tag which is done annually by Suffolk guys to whom winning a race at the Spa, any race, is bigger than winning a stakes race there. Bring their own jock to make sure noone gives them a test ride.
Key the 4 and 6

race 4- Market Pyschology's gate work was good, but not as great as would seem in the form. Gate works on the Spa main track start in teh chute which means that a 1/2 mile gate work is all on a straightaway, the fact that he was hard ridden that morning should be mentioned. Has some talent, but will be overbet off the connections and published gate work. Trust Nobody exits a field that was very good and he was not wound tight. Hes tight today, and his sire loved wet tracks. Adds lasix off top figure. Your Honor's Up wore new front warps when setting a contested pace last time. His debut was great and troubled. Very eligible to improve, watch the paddock and post parade for front wraps or lack thereof and factor in accordingly. Biancone's horse Indian Camp took mucho action in his debut and was extremely green. Biancone is a startling 30% with first lasix runners.
Key the 6, also use the 5,9,10

race 5- Tall Story the likely fave was well beaten with no excuse last out. Barn is ice cold other than bernadini and my rule is to bet against cold barns(especially with chalk) until they show a change in course. John's Song's debut was great agaisnt the nice horse Bedford Falls. he broke awful that day and was a very good 2nd. Then swtiched to grass(debut was a rainoff) he middle moved and flattened and then last time had a brutal buried inside trip on a speed favoring grass course and then flew home. Back to dirt today.
Purely WIld debuted on dirt and broke bad and then steadied in what looked like a tightener(took no money). Grass race was very good that followed. We have him working awesome, especially his last work where he flew.
Key the 2,9. Save with the 6

race 6-Bernie WHite Shoes last race was good, but his recent works off layoff are nothing special. Tenthirteen and Stolen Time both exit much harder race against Silver Wagon and have fast back numbers.
Key the 8,15,16

race 7- Ferocious Fires was great last out and in his debut. many in here have absolutely no excuse in their perfect trip flops last out. That would cover both parts of the entry and Baby Rusch who were all awful last out as was Tough Shipmate. Fires will crush them even on the class raise.
Key the 4

race 8- Sharp Susan worked like a graded stakes horse before her debut wheere she was very green against an impressive winner. Last out was no excuse but shes third in the form cycle and 2nd lasix and 2nd blinks. I like her in this 7f off the grass race. Luxury Class, Meadow Breeze, and Changeisgonnacome all look like cheaper horses who may be overbet. the only other use is Pletcher's filly who debuted on grass and was awesome. She need only convert 75% of that ability to dirt to run well.
Key the 1,4

race 9- Eastern Crown and Multiple Choice are both sharp and off the grass while having good dirt ability in scratch depleted field.
Key the 1,2.

Good luck to all.

[pweizer]

Thanks, Oracle. I appreciate the insights.

Paul

[Cpt.Bodgit]

Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts!! Too bad I won't have the ability to play any of them today but good luck to everyone who does.

Like the guy or not(and I don't know him),
right or wrong(and he is an "ofer" after the first 4 races), you have to respect and appreciate someone willing to lay their opinions on the line trying to help fellow players(so, thanks, guy!).

If you want top info from the best toga tout around, and are willing to part with a few $$, try www.tripanalysis.com.

Trust me here--quit jacking around, and go straight to one of the best out there!
And afterwards, don't thank me--thank the tripmeister!

[TitanSooner]

I don't get it.. you advertise this tripmeister guy as the best 'toga tout around.. but they're not selling their analysis until Belmont??

1st response:
My bad--I didn't know he shut down after the Travers.
Too bad, because this guy scorched the meet, as anyone here who followed this site can attest. I know the writer was up there for a month. He must have bugged out Sunday. Be patient--this site is the real deal!

2nd response:
This is not my site. I did not do this work.
This was the hottest site for the last two weeks since it's inception.
As to why you should pay this site as opposed to these freebies--
very simple.
The answer is in the results.
Gander dude--no disrespect, but don't knock this site if you know nothing about it, as you will only look foolish.
Ask those who know.
If this Oracle dude is as connected up there as he claims, then he is familiar with this site. I know the head honchos of the DRF are very aware.

Like I said the first time, thanks Mr.Oracle for the honest effort.
I hope you sweep the rest of this crappy racecard!

[Gander]

I wasnt knocking it. More power to the people who make a living off of pawning horse selections. Thats like trying to predict lotto results. I wish I could be so lucky.

Like a very wise person on here said about anybody trying to sell their picks, if someone was that good at it, they wouldnt have to sell their picks, they would be able to make 100 times more just betting and keeping that info to themselves.

Originally Posted by Gander

I wasnt knocking it. More power to the people who make a living off of pawning horse selections. Thats like trying to predict lotto results. I wish I could be so lucky.

Like a very wise person on here said about anybody trying to sell their picks, if someone was that good at it, they wouldnt have to sell their picks, they would be able to make 100 times more just betting and keeping that info to themselves.

Gander--maybe for YOU, handicapping major racetracks is like picking lottery results. If so, do yourself a favor and give up racing immediately. There are plenty of slot machines for your mentality.

I assure you that there are quite a few sharpies who are excellent touts, selling their hard, valuable work to many greatful players who don't have time for the intense study necessary. These players often successfully incorporate this type of info into their own handicapping process.

As for your second statement--there are a few that do BOTH very well.
100 times more $$$???---is Ragozin a fraud? Thorograph? Andy B?
I am going to tell you nicely one more time because I think this might be of future value your way:
www.tripanalysis.com is one of the best(if not the best) NY capping site around!
Take my thoughts as you like.

[ninetoone]

I have never paid for someone else's picks & I never will.

If people like Oracle & Steve are nice enough to put some information out there on this site, I'll certainly take a look, but isn't handicapping yourself what makes this game so great?

If you're going to pay for someone else's picks & blindly bet them, you might as well be playing the slots, IMO.

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I have never paid for someone else's picks & I never will.

If people like Oracle & Steve are nice enough to put some information out there on this site, I'll certainly take a look, but isn't handicapping yourself what makes this game so great?

If you're going to pay for someone else's picks & blindly bet them, you might as well be playing the slots, IMO.

I understand and appreciate your first comment.
I used to feel the same way.
Do you buy a DRF or any pps?
Do they offer selections or opinions?

I don't know Oracle.
If Steve is the guy I am familiar with, I agree that he is pretty good.
He will probably also vouch for my comments.
He might tell you that I occasionally pick a few winners that aren't chalk.

Your last statement misses the point.
No one should blindly bet anything.
However, excellent trip analysis and info can be very helpful in getting a proper read on certain runners, and be very beneficial to your wallet.
And that is why many bet the races.
You use this type of info to supplement your own approach.
There is no easy way.

[ninetoone]

They don't offer a DRF with only PP's that I know of....if they did, I bet it would sell.

I see what your saying, but I'm with Gander on this one...there's nothing worse than losing on someone else's pick.

When I buy the DRF I immediately throw away the "selections" part of the drf. I want to do my own analysis. I want data, data and more data and then I will formulate my pick based on the data, race replays, trainer stats, jockey stats, etc etc. The only thing I can't get is any inside information on a horse. I would pay for inside information. For example, I was at Churchill Derby week to watch the horses work and then I reported back to this board and Oracle did the same. Sweetnorthernsaint had a stunning workout but what you didnt see was that he was about to fall down from exhaustion in his stall. Barbaro on the other hand looked awesome after his work. Lemons Forever looked much the best during her work and looked great all week. I also reported that back to the board. That kind of information is what I would pay for. I can look and decipher numbers, biases etc etc. Of course, I dont bet that many races. I only bet races that I like handicapping.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Euro....
WELL SAID..sometimes the ""little known"" info is the best info... Since I have TWO eyes....TWO ears.... and only ONE mouth... I try and take in as much info as possible.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I smell agenda. Do us all a favor and take the commercials somewhere else.

Obviously you don't get it, DaHoss(btw I saw the actual runner with your screen name a short while back--getting pretty chubby!).

As anyone who visited the site I mentioned will tell you, I WAS doing you a favor.

I thought this Oracle guy was going to charge you $20 or so for his picks/opinions. So I was trying to steer you to another very successful site for less $$$. Skip it if you like. Your loss.

This Oracle fellow picked a very meaningless race card to tout today, which didn't help his situation. Tough to look good with a mess like that.

So--he picked a $4 and a $5 winner today. I would think most of you could find that kind of gem on your own.

Yes--I am somewhat acquainted with the person behind www.tripanalysis.com. I have communicated with him about gambling theories for the last few years. As far as racing goes, I think he is the sharpest player I have been around in many years. So if you think I have an agenda for trying to steer a few of you(who are looking for selections/thoughts) in a very good direction, then so be it.

Sooner or later someone will stumble on to this thread that is familiar with what I am saying, and you just might change your tune.

[on a suuny day]

Thanks Oracle80 for sharing your take on todays card

[moke0043]

Originally Posted by on a suuny day

Thanks Oracle80 for sharing your take on todays card

Thanks again Oracle for your insight!

Just recieved a nice private message from this Oracle fellow.
Seems like a really nice person.
Thanks for the kind words and encouragement!
Looking forward to a lot of constructive exchanges and discourse here!

What a warm friendly group of racing fans!

Originally Posted by jackofhearts

Just recieved a nice private message from this Oracle fellow.
Seems like a really nice person.
Thanks for the kind words and encouragement!
Looking forward to a lot of constructive exchanges and discourse here!

What a warm friendly group of racing fans!

I guess there was some sarcasm there. But most of us are friendly.