Spa jockey/agent title race

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Yes I undertsand that. Gomez's win percenatge is 1 point higher. That means that they would need to have 700 mounts a piece for Gomez to have a 7 win lead.

7 is 1% of 700.

LOL!!!! This is sixth grade stats!!!!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

LOL!!!! This is sixth grade stats!!!!

As I said before, I'm not sure what he is so confused about. If they both had 5000 mounts, then Gomez would have 50 more wins. But with only 200 mounts a piece, you would expect Gomez to be leading by 2.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

As I said before, I'm not sure what he is so confused about. If they both had 5000 mounts, then Gomez would have 50 more wins. But with only 200 mounts a piece, you would expect Gomez to be leading by 2.

I get that. I am saying that Gomez would have 7.35 more wins. I dont understand why are you are so confused.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I get that. I am saying that Gomez would have 7.35 more wins. I dont understand why are you are so confused.

That is incorrect. If Gomez had an equal number of mounts with Prado right now, he would be ahead by 2 wins. You can ask anyone on this board. This is simple math. You won't find one person out of 50 that would agree with your math. You're saying that 1+1 = 3.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is incorrect. If Gomez had an equal number of mounts with Prado right now, he would be ahead by 2 wins. You can ask anyone on this board. This is simple math. You won't find one person out of 50 that would agree with your math. You're saying that 1+1 = 3.

What I am doing is projections.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

What I am doing is projections.

There are no projections that would show Gomez leading by 7 right now. He would have to win with 10 out of his next 25 mounts to be ahead by 7. The proper projection would be to assume that he would win with 5 of those mounts, putting him ahead by 2.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

There are no projections that would show Gomez leading by 7 right now. He would have to win with 10 out of his next 25 mounts to be ahead by 7. The proper projection would be to assume that he would win with 5 of those mounts, putting him ahead by 2.

I am projecting two things here. 1) how many races he would win based on his last two weeks and 2 how that carries over given the same amounts as Prado. It is all hypothetical.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is incorrect. If Gomez had an equal number of mounts with Prado right now, he would be ahead by 2 wins. You can ask anyone on this board. This is simple math. You won't find one person out of 50 that would agree with your math. You're saying that 1+1 = 3.

I am not projection that Gomez maintains his 20% win based on his past week.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I am not projection that Gomez maintains his 20% win based on his past week.

Well, what are you projecting then? We can project that Gomez will win 12 races the next week and that Prado will win 2. Then Gomez will be ahead by 7.

I can project that JV would be the leading rider if he had more mounts. If JV can win at a 50% clip for the rest of the meet, then he may be leading rdier.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Well, what are you projecting then? We can project that Gomez will win 12 races the next week and that Prado will win 2. Then Gomez will be ahead by 7.

I can project that JV would be the leading rider if he had more mounts. If JV can win at a 50% clip for the rest of the meet, then he may be leading rdier.

I am using data for Gomez and Prado from the past two weeks of riding. Then I am making the number of mounts equal to get that number. That is all. Nothing big nothing confusing.

[Scav]

From a math perspective, the only thing you guys should be looking at is the percentage, all the rest is relative

I haven't followed the conversation, and don't have time to from everything I can see, Gomez is technically winning on more of his rides then Prado is winning on his rides.

[Scav]

Also, when arguing math and percentages, I find it useful to use 100 as the base point because people understand 40% of 100 is 40 and 3% of 100 is 3

For future discussion. You guys throwing numbers like 5000 and 700 are hard numbers from a math perspective when you are talking percentages, at least for those that aren't quick with math

[Scav]

as in right now

Gomez is winning with 21 out of 100 mounts and Prado is winning with 20 out of every 100 thus Gomez is winning more races

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Scav

From a math perspective, the only thing you guys should be looking at is the percentage, all the rest is relative

I haven't followed the conversation, and don't have time to from everything I can see, Gomez is technically winning on more of his rides then Prado is winning on his rides.

When I tell you what the debate is about, you will think that I am joking. Prado has 3 more wins this meet than Gomez. Prado also has 25 more mounts. Eurobounce speculated that if Prado and Gomez had an equal number of monuts, that Gomez would be ahead by somewher between 5-7 wins. That makes no sense. Gomez is ridng at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect to win with 5 of those mounts. He is 3 behind Prado right now. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect him to win with 5 of those mounts. That would put him ahead of Prado by 2. Euro kept arguing that he would be ahead by 5-7.

[Gander]

What Euro said isnt completely impossible, given the fact that Gomez is a guy who could easily go 10 for 25 or 0 for 25 in that matter. Hes very streaky.
This is getting old again.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

When I tell you what the debate is about, you will think that I am joking. Prado has 3 more wins this meet than Gomez. Prado also has 25 more mounts. Eurobounce speculated that if Prado and Gomez had an equal number of monuts, that Gomez would be ahead by somewher between 5-7 wins. That makes no sense. Gomez is ridng at a 20% clip. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect to win with 5 of those mounts. He is 3 behind Prado right now. If he had 25 more mounts, you would expect him to win with 5 of those mounts. That would put him ahead of Prado by 2. Euro kept arguing that he would be ahead by 5-7.

I said 5-7 based on my projections of current winning and number of mounts.

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I get that. I am saying that Gomez would have 7.35 more wins. I dont understand why are you are so confused.

This is tiresome already,also I'm confused how in the hell can you get a .35 win? Enough of this already.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Raysva

This is tiresome already,also I'm confused how in the hell can you get a .35 win? Enough of this already.

There is nothing to be confused about. Here are the updated stats. Prado has 35 wins from 174 mounts. That means he's ridng 20% winners. Gomez has 32 wins from 149 mounts. His win percentage is 21.4%. If Gomez had as many mounts as Prado, you would expect him to be ahead of Prado by 2.2 wins. It's simple math. All you have to do is a little multiplication.

[Gander]

I predict Gomez grabs 2 wins today and Prado 1.