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[herkhorse]

Thanks, found the symbols in the race of the week section.

Docs 1st post says TG likes Collooney County in Aq 4th tomorrow. I'm looking at CC and don't see anything that tells me TG likes him. What am I missing?

[Scav]

here is how I would look at the race when incorporating sheets

Brother Gold: Circled back to his 'top' (14) off four days rest, pair of the 14 or slight regression most likely
Tony the Terio: 14's routing (see this by the 'bolding' of the number), nothing positive about this one
Collooney County: Has the 14.5 two back but the last two were dreadful
Hidden Price: Has a couple siblings to run around the '10' number (note the Breeding info on the full sheet version) but also had some slow siblings, might be usuable based on that fact alone, in a bad race.
Big Megilla: No idea who Sydney Dutrow is but obviously someone related to Dicky. See the horse as slow unless Sydney has better stuff then Dicky
Saratogian: Slow
Doctor Problum: Slow
Wanna Winna: Has 14's to go back to, Hernandez's number route to sprint are decent
Roadhouse Rock: Another with siblings that were in the '10' area, which would destroy this field, usuable on that fact alone
Living Out a Dream: Has the best number within the race, a pair wins, and a slight regression still wins

This isn't a very powerful sheet race in terms of information.

Give me a couple minutes and I will write up the Sir Beaugamt at Santa Anita, which has some real powerful sheet plays in there, IMO

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by Scav

here is how I would look at the race when incorporating sheets

Brother Gold: Circled back to his 'top' (14) off four days rest, pair of the 14 or slight regression most likely
Tony the Terio: 14's routing (see this by the 'bolding' of the number), nothing positive about this one
Collooney County: Has the 14.5 two back but the last two were dreadful
Hidden Price: Has a couple siblings to run around the '10' number (note the Breeding info on the full sheet version) but also had some slow siblings, might be usuable based on that fact alone, in a bad race.
Big Megilla: No idea who Sydney Dutrow is but obviously someone related to Dicky. See the horse as slow unless Sydney has better stuff then Dicky
Saratogian: Slow
Doctor Problum: Slow
Wanna Winna: Has 14's to go back to, Hernandez's number route to sprint are decent
Roadhouse Rock: Another with siblings that were in the '10' area, which would destroy this field, usuable on that fact alone
Living Out a Dream: Has the best number within the race, a pair wins, and a slight regression still wins

This isn't a very powerful sheet race in terms of information.

Give me a couple minutes and I will write up the Sir Beaugamt at Santa Anita, which has some real powerful sheet plays in there, IMO

Thanks Scav, big help!

[Scav]

Liberian Fighter: Got back to his top off the minor layoff and ran a new top in his recent allowance race.
Sky Cape: In looking at his patterns, he seems to run in two race sequences, with his best race always first, and his regression 2nd, usuable based on that fact, and play against in his next start if soon after this start
Dakota Phone: His turf numbers don't compete, but his recent numbers show good form and good health as he has a nice developing pattern.
Fifteen Love: First start in the US he paired his top, usually a sign of a horse about to move forward, perfect spacing, a must include
Medjool: Back numbers maybe and Canani is no fool, don't see it here though
Icemancometh: A touch slow on the numbers but has a developing pattern, trainer change something to consider, especially with it being a recent claim and popped right into a stakes race
Young Joe: His Del Mar race three back was real good, but he really reacted off that performance with two bad performances, not this start but maybe the next if he shows his way back to the '2'
Ten Meropa: Horse has obvious issues with the extreme gaps within races, don't see it against this competition
El Gato Malo: Something I consider very strong is the fact that a horse pairs his top off a very long layoff, to me, that shows progression and health. This one has the surface question mark. This one also has a "!" notation after the numbers, which means that TG feels the effort/number is better then it shows, I call them "Sneaky good efforts", don't see why he wouldn't at least run an 'off' effort thus putting him right there.
Ghetto: This horse is exactly why TG's can be very powerful. He would be my key in this race as if you toss his last effort, especially considering all his synethics have been off efforts (He obviously doesn't like it) he had a great improving line, getting to the '-5'. Post postion is obviously against him, but this horse could be there at the end at a huge number.
Pistol Pete Afleet: Seems to be hanging around the "6" area, which won't be good enough, might be a decent 4 year old though
Gio Ponti: Interesting read, if he runs the 2 that he has been running, they are running for 2nd, but that 4.75 he ran last time could be a sign of regression. I would be playing him to pair the 4.75 or even run in the 5.5 range, and then another layoff

In Pick 3's I would be using Ghetto, El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, and Fifteen Love
Exactas I would be playing Ghetto and Fifteen Love over El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, Gio Ponti, Ghetto, Fifteen Love, Sky Cape, Liberian Freighter

[herkhorse]

Thanks, starting to get a feel for this which is a giant improvement for me. Good stuff.

Totally wiped out, long day. Was up all night last night putting a dollhouse together. This Santa stuff is harder than I thought. Hope everyone had as good a day as me. Nothing more fun than kids at Christmas.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Liberian Fighter: Got back to his top off the minor layoff and ran a new top in his recent allowance race.
Sky Cape: In looking at his patterns, he seems to run in two race sequences, with his best race always first, and his regression 2nd, usuable based on that fact, and play against in his next start if soon after this start
Dakota Phone: His turf numbers don't compete, but his recent numbers show good form and good health as he has a nice developing pattern.
Fifteen Love: First start in the US he paired his top, usually a sign of a horse about to move forward, perfect spacing, a must include
Medjool: Back numbers maybe and Canani is no fool, don't see it here though
Icemancometh: A touch slow on the numbers but has a developing pattern, trainer change something to consider, especially with it being a recent claim and popped right into a stakes race
Young Joe: His Del Mar race three back was real good, but he really reacted off that performance with two bad performances, not this start but maybe the next if he shows his way back to the '2'
Ten Meropa: Horse has obvious issues with the extreme gaps within races, don't see it against this competition
El Gato Malo: Something I consider very strong is the fact that a horse pairs his top off a very long layoff, to me, that shows progression and health. This one has the surface question mark. This one also has a "!" notation after the numbers, which means that TG feels the effort/number is better then it shows, I call them "Sneaky good efforts", don't see why he wouldn't at least run an 'off' effort thus putting him right there.
Ghetto: This horse is exactly why TG's can be very powerful. He would be my key in this race as if you toss his last effort, especially considering all his synethics have been off efforts (He obviously doesn't like it) he had a great improving line, getting to the '-5'. Post postion is obviously against him, but this horse could be there at the end at a huge number.
Pistol Pete Afleet: Seems to be hanging around the "6" area, which won't be good enough, might be a decent 4 year old though
Gio Ponti: Interesting read, if he runs the 2 that he has been running, they are running for 2nd, but that 4.75 he ran last time could be a sign of regression. I would be playing him to pair the 4.75 or even run in the 5.5 range, and then another layoff

In Pick 3's I would be using Ghetto, El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, and Fifteen Love
Exactas I would be playing Ghetto and Fifteen Love over El Gato Malo, Icemancometh, Gio Ponti, Ghetto, Fifteen Love, Sky Cape, Liberian Freighter

The only thing I would add about Dakota Phone is that his "slow" back turf #'s were very much in line with what he was running on synth at the time. He has since moved forward on the synth, and this will be his first try back on the turf since improving. If he had been running 3's on the main when he ran his 8 on turf, I would be more likely to discount him, but he wasn't.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by golfer

The only thing I would add about Dakota Phone is that his "slow" back turf #'s were very much in line with what he was running on synth at the time. He has since moved forward on the synth, and this will be his first try back on the turf since improving. If he had been running 3's on the main when he ran his 8 on turf, I would be more likely to discount him, but he wasn't.

G,

You've got this 100% correct. Totally agree that he's the right horse at the right price in the "Beaugamt".

Those that love to bash Hollendorfer as a 'move up' guy should note the patience he had with him too... "Just" a $67,000 purchase that took to February of his soph year to get to the gate, Hollendorfer never panicked early on when it was taking 7 tries to break his maiden. He never dropped him into Mdn Clm company. Short on synth, not his thing. Long on synth, better, but still not his best. Then long on grass and paydirt. And now he's a complete horse that looks like he still has upside.

[herkhorse]

If any of you TG people want to pick a "race of the day", this week and explain what you see I would be down with that. Thanks for everyone's help!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

If any of you TG people want to pick a "race of the day", this week and explain what you see I would be down with that. Thanks for everyone's help!

Sheets are a very lazy handicapping method and frankly shouldnt even be considered handicapping. Sheets are a tool that one could use to help the process.Once they become the process they are exposed as the lazy man's cliff notes. Read the book then after you have read it the cheat sheets make more sense!

[phystech]

Originally Posted by Scav

Big Megilla: No idea who Sydney Dutrow is but obviously someone related to Dicky. See the horse as slow unless Sydney has better stuff then Dicky
IMO

FWIW - Sydney Dutrow, aka Chip, is Ricky's younger brother. He works for Rick.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by phystech

FWIW - Sydney Dutrow, aka Chip, is Ricky's younger brother. He works for Rick.

Already? He most recently had been working for Tony and then late last month he decided to go on his own (again). He started out with two horses that Frankel gave him (I think Frankel owned them as well), and had a few more on the way.

Eric

[phystech]

My info was second, or third hand. You may have more up-to-date info than I do.....

[herkhorse]

I like the visual that the calender gives you of the spacing of a horses races throughout his career.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Thanks, found the symbols in the race of the week section.

Docs 1st post says TG likes Collooney County in Aq 4th tomorrow. I'm looking at CC and don't see anything that tells me TG likes him. What am I missing?

Tom,

In the world of handicapping using Thoro-Graph, Collooney County sticks out as an include in the 4th because he is sporting very close to the notorious "0-2-X" pattern. 0-2-X is a pattern read originally noted by TG's Julian Weinberg 20 years ago that suggests that a horse that runs a big isolated top (like a "0"), regularly regresses to a slight off performance in their next start (like a "2"), before falling apart in the third start of the cycle (an "X", perhaps a a number like a "12" or "15").

These horses then typically will come back to the original performance level with some rest. Because the horse in question, like a Collooney County, looks like he's a bum going in the wrong direction, these runners are frequently outrageously good bets and are the scores that I watch Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Weinbrg and Bill Spillane regularly cash at Saratoga at the Carolina Barbecue each summer.

Collooney County ran a 14.5 in the 10/2 Belmont sprint off the layoff (our "0"), followed by the 17.25 on 11/6 in the Belmont turf route (our "2"), followed by the 24.5 in the 11/23 Aqueduct sprint (our "X"). If worried about fitness, he had a slow 5f work 12/6, just 13 days after his last race, and then a fast half mile blow 10 days later. Looks OK... And on top of everything else, he's the only runner here dropping from MSW company to a low maiden claiming price... only the game's most potent dropdown.

The 14.5 makes Collooney County as fast as anyone in the race except Living Out a Dream (top of 11.75 last out). If he snaps back in classic 0-2-X fashion returning to around the 14, he can hit the board and juice the exotics. If the other, more obvious players faulter, he has a modest shot to win with that level of effort, (and an even better shot to win with a new 'top').

He's not a certainty to win or even hit the board, but as a potential $20-$30 mutuel, he is an ideal and significant representation of the kind of horse/situation/pattern that is a wagering opportunity presented when using TG.

G/L today!

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tom,

In the world of handicapping using Thoro-Graph, Collooney County sticks out as an include in the 4th because he is sporting very close to the notorious "0-2-X" pattern. 0-2-X is a pattern read originally noted by TG's Julian Weinberg 20 years ago that suggests that a horse that runs a big isolated top (like a "0"), regularly regresses to a slight off performance in their next start (like a "2"), before falling apart in the third start of the cycle (an "X", perhaps a a number like a "12" or "15").

These horses then typically will come back to the original performance level with some rest. Because the horse in question, like a Collooney County, looks like he's a bum going in the wrong direction, these runners are frequently outrageously good bets and are the scores that I watch Jerry Brown, Alan Benewitz, Weinbrg and Bill Spillane regularly cash at Saratoga at the Carolina Barbecue each summer.

Collooney County ran a 14.5 in the 10/2 Belmont sprint off the layoff (our "0"), followed by the 17.25 on 11/6 in the Belmont turf route (our "2"), followed by the 24.5 in the 11/23 Aqueduct sprint (our "X"). If worried about fitness, he had a slow 5f work 12/6, just 13 days after his last race, and then a fast half mile blow 10 days later. Looks OK... And on top of everything else, he's the only runner here dropping from MSW company to a low maiden claiming price... only the game's most potent dropdown.

The 14.5 makes Collooney County as fast as anyone in the race except Living Out a Dream (top of 11.75 last out). If he snaps back in classic 0-2-X fashion returning to around the 14, he can hit the board and juice the exotics. If the other, more obvious players faulter, he has a modest shot to win with that level of effort, (and an even better shot to win with a new 'top').

He's not a certainty to win or even hit the board, but as a potential $20-$30 mutuel, he is an ideal and significant representation of the kind of horse/situation/pattern that is a wagering opportunity presented when using TG.

G/L today!

Steve, isn't R Clear Victory a perfect example of this designated 0-2-x pattern?? (8th race at AQ Sunday)
However, TG stats only give him a 3% chance to run a top. Thanks!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Steve, isn't R Clear Victory a perfect example of this designated 0-2-x pattern?? (8th race at AQ Sunday)
However, TG stats only give him a 3% chance to run a top. Thanks!!

V/J,

Absolutely.. R Clear Victory ran the 0.50, the 2.5 and the 7.0. Has had nearly 6 weeks and should return to near his top. But look at Mor Chances for the example of the 0-2-X followed by the return to the top... New top of 3 (in slop); regression to 5.25; bounces to 10.5 (complicated slightly by race being on grass where he's not as strong); returns to the top of 3 on 6 weeks rest at bonus mutuel of 7-1.

Back to R Clear Victory though... Recognize that the 'Thoro-Pattern' is the universe of horses in the database that have been in a similar circumstance as R Clear Victory:

570 starts in Nov-Jan where a horse 5yo or older was coming into a race off a similar pattern: Top-Off-X.

3% (New Top); 16% (Pair Up); 28% (Off Effort); 54% (X's)

Yes, only 3% got a new top.. But think about this.. would you expect most 5yo's to be consistantly running new tops the way you might expect a healthy, upswinging 3yo to run one? At the same time, note Victory Gallop's Sire Index for 5+. It's the best figure average for him. Overall? 11.75. But 5+? 9.75! Victory Gallop progeny are still improving as older horses, and R Clear Victory's entire campaign as a 5yo supports that.

This is a very sound horse. Note how even when he reacts to efforts (the 15 in 12/07, the 8.5 in 2/08, the 6.75 in 7/08) he snaps right back to pair up. And note how tight the progression line is for him. The 3% new top makes a lot of sense here (late season universe of Nov.-Jan. for older horses) given how R Clear Victory has already set 3 new tops during this season:

4.50/4.75 in Jan/Feb
2.5 in April
0.5 in August

It would appear that R Clear Victory is more likely in this particular case to project to the more reasonable 2.5 range than all the way back to the top. After all, while he's only 3% likely to run better than the 0.5 top, he's 44% likely to Pair Up or go Off, which is a range of about 0.5-4.

Asmussen would do well to give him a nice winter break of 60-75 days after this race as he's had a great year and could repeat it in '09 with a deserved rest. Very interesting horse to look at and a fascinating race too... Have to look at the rest, but at a glance, and without the PP's or ML, one horse that may be a price play in there is Almighty Silver.

[VOL JACK]

Thanks Steve, I also like Almighty Silver at a price. I've just always liked RCV because he is such a honest horse, and this looks like a time to catch him at a price. Great betting race!

[Pedigree Ann]

R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

R Clear Victory looked good winning at $23.80. Maybe there is something in this gobbledegook after all.

Yes he did, both Assmu winners @ AQ helped my bankroll for the start of Gulfstream.
That was a difficult post position to overcome for RCV, (but helped his price) and Stewy Elliott did a good job working out a trip.