Blackberry Road in FG 8th Thursday

[mes5107]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Those fractions may have had something to do with why the winner won......but nothing to do with why Blackberry lost.

So the fractions helped the winner beat everybody BUT Blackberry Road, who lost on his own?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by mes5107

So the fractions helped the winner beat everybody BUT Blackberry Road, who lost on his own?

Comprehension is a beautiful thing.

[mes5107]

Well, which is it?

The favorite finished up the last qtr in 23.1 on the dirt after being able to lope along the first 3/4's at 24.3, 24.2, and 25.3. At the quarter pole, Blackberry Road was about 1.5 lengths behind. To catch the favorite, he would have had to run about a 22.4 final quarter. A tough task for any horse, especially for one who just made a four wide move after traveling 3/4's of a mile. I'm not touting Blackberry Road by any means, but I find it hard to believe that the favorite didn't have the race handed to him with those fractions. Anything resembling a pace would have completely changed the dynamics of this race.

[miraja2]

I don't think people are really saying anything that different here.
The fact that the favorite/winner was allowed to set such easy fractions was probably the main reason that horse won. I think we probably all agree with Steve on that point.
That doesn't automatically mean that KG's point is completely invalid. He seems to be saying that if Blackberry Road was much of a horse, he would have beaten the second place finisher and probably would have been closer to the winner than he ended up being in reality. It seems to me that is a valid point also.

In other words, I think they're both true.
The winner DID win because he is a pretty good horse that got to lope along on an easy pace.
Blackberry Road DIDN'T finish second or even challenge the winner despite the pace disadvantage because he isn't particularly good.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't think people are really saying anything that different here.
The fact that the favorite/winner was allowed to set such easy fractions was probably the main reason that horse won. I think we probably all agree with Steve on that point.
That doesn't automatically mean that KG's point is completely invalid. He seems to be saying that if Blackberry Road was much of a horse, he would have beaten the second place finisher and probably would have been closer to the winner than he ended up being in reality. It seems to me that is a valid point also.

In other words, I think they're both true.
The winner DID win because he is a pretty good horse that got to lope along on an easy pace.
Blackberry Road DIDN'T finish second or even challenge the winner despite the pace disadvantage because he isn't particularly good.

That's exactly what I'm saying. Considering the way the race was run, Blackberry Road probably shouldn't have been expected to win. But usually, we will see a runner put together a nice finish and make some progress on a winner that had it all to himself. Instead, we saw him retreating in the lane and even getting passed by a horse that he had already passed around the turn.