9/27 (OSA): Goodwood Day (6 Gr. I stakes)

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Rematch with Ginger Punch so she can have her rightful coronation before everyone jumps the gun (she's only run 7 times), wanting her to run outside her division before she's even earned a championship.

She can run against colts next year. Or in the Clark.

Rightful coronation? Ok so what if Ginger Punch wins the race? If Ginger Punch wins, she's the champion. Even though they would be tied and Zenyatta kicked her ass on dirt. So in order for Zenyatta to win the title, she's got to beat her twice but for GP to win it, she's only got to win once. Yeah, that's fair.

I think that making the point that she's only run seven times so far is not looking at the state of today's game. If this were the 80's or early 90's, that would be different. But in today's game, seven races is a lot. Consider how many Ghostzapper had. Smarty Jones. Bernardini and Invasor. Candy Ride. Afleet Alex. Barbaro. Curlin. Big Brown. You can't compare today's standards to those of the past.

Also, what's so wrong with running outside of your division before you've won a championship? Many great fillies have done that.

[RolloTomasi]

Rightful coronation? Ok so what if Ginger Punch wins the race? If Ginger Punch wins, she's the champion. Even though they would be tied and Zenyatta kicked her ass on dirt. So in order for Zenyatta to win the title, she's got to beat her twice but for GP to win it, she's only got to win once. Yeah, that's fair.

So...if Summer Colony didn't bother running in the 2002 BC Distaff, she could have won the Eclipse, since she beat Azeri in their only meeting at Santa Anita? Good thinking.

I think that making the point that she's only run seven times so far is not looking at the state of today's game. If this were the 80's or early 90's, that would be different. But in today's game, seven races is a lot. Consider how many Ghostzapper had. Smarty Jones. Bernardini and Invasor. Candy Ride. Afleet Alex. Barbaro. Curlin. Big Brown. You can't compare today's standards to those of the past.

That wasn't my point. All those horses you mentioned (two or three of which broke down) were males that weren't asked to run outside their division (aside from Curlin--maybe Candy Ride if you want to get picky). Zenyatta having to face males after just a handful of starts during her first full season of racing is brazen at best, reckless at worst.

Also, what's so wrong with running outside of your division before you've won a championship? Many great fillies have done that.

Name one that wasn't trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

[Indian Charlie]

According to another thread here, Pro Ride is 87% dirt, which makes it a lot more plausible that HL can beat Zenyatta here.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

According to another thread here, Pro Ride is 87% dirt, which makes it a lot more plausible that HL can beat Zenyatta here.

Not sure I beleive that but, it sure does look more like dirt than any syn Ive seen.

[cowgirlintexas]

Looks like Stardom bound may be out of the Oak Leaf tomorrow

http://www.drf.com/news/article/98552.html

[Mike]

I'm surprised that Spirit One is 8-1 ml odds. I think he's the best and will hope for 5-1 and up

[geeker2]

ZENYATTA 09/20 Hol/ft 6f 112.4h
Looked grand galloping on the 19th here at Hollywood and then
turned in a great work here for Shirreffs. Worked with Bronzino, a very
good workhorse, but not such a great racehorse. She started five
behind, closed the gap by the 1/4 pole, and drew off in the lane by
three and went out strongly. Bronzino had no response at all as he
seems to be a bit chicken hearted.


from today's racing digest

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Rightful coronation? Ok so what if Ginger Punch wins the race? If Ginger Punch wins, she's the champion. Even though they would be tied and Zenyatta kicked her ass on dirt. So in order for Zenyatta to win the title, she's got to beat her twice but for GP to win it, she's only got to win once. Yeah, that's fair.

So...if Summer Colony didn't bother running in the 2002 BC Distaff, she could have won the Eclipse, since she beat Azeri in their only meeting at Santa Anita? Good thinking.

I think that making the point that she's only run seven times so far is not looking at the state of today's game. If this were the 80's or early 90's, that would be different. But in today's game, seven races is a lot. Consider how many Ghostzapper had. Smarty Jones. Bernardini and Invasor. Candy Ride. Afleet Alex. Barbaro. Curlin. Big Brown. You can't compare today's standards to those of the past.

That wasn't my point. All those horses you mentioned (two or three of which broke down) were males that weren't asked to run outside their division (aside from Curlin--maybe Candy Ride if you want to get picky). Zenyatta having to face males after just a handful of starts during her first full season of racing is brazen at best, reckless at worst.

Also, what's so wrong with running outside of your division before you've won a championship? Many great fillies have done that.

Name one that wasn't trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

Personal Ensign is one. Excellent Meeting. Royal Heroine. A lot of Europeans. Safely Kept. Very Subtle. Xtra Heat. Honest Lady. Eight Belles.

The Summer Colony argument is not even close to the same thing. You might as well have said Lorenzoni should have gotten it over Easy Goer since he beat him. That's not what I'm saying at all. We are talking about comparable records in top class races between two talented mares. I'm not saying that Zenyatta's one win should give her the automatic advantage. It could have been an off day for Ginger Punch. But why should GP beating her to even the score, on a synthetic track at that, mean that she's the champion? It's sort of like when Ohio St and Michigan were both at the top of the polls in football. Ohio St. had played and beaten Michigan yet people were saying that Michigan deserved a spot in the title game to play them again. If that would have happened and Michigan had won, they'd be the champs even though the score was 1-1. Ohio St would have had to beat Michigan twice to be the champion. Same here. Zenyatta shouldn't have to beat GP twice to win a title when it would only take one win for GP to be the champ.

My point about the number of starts thing is that in years past, even those males wouldn't have been asked to do as much as they did so soon in their careers. But it's a different game now. The same things that horses used to be asked to do 8-10 races into a career, they are now being asked to do 3-5 in. In years past, horses raced 30+ times over multiple seasons so there was no rush to do things. Now, when you're looking at a 10-15 race career max, the timetables are pushed way up.

[RolloTomasi]

Personal Ensign is one. Excellent Meeting. Royal Heroine. A lot of Europeans. Safely Kept. Very Subtle. Xtra Heat. Honest Lady. Eight Belles.

Figures you'd name sprinters and more Europeans. And for the record, Excellent Meeting and Eight Belles are not strong examples, given their careers after facing colts. Same goes for Rags To Riches.

Yes, Personal Ensign was one-in-a-million. I don't have Zenyatta in that category just yet.

The Summer Colony argument is not even close to the same thing. You might as well have said Lorenzoni should have gotten it over Easy Goer since he beat him.

That's BS. Summer Colony had all the credentials to be a champion that year. In addition to the La Canada, she also took down the Personal Ensign (not to be confused with the Zenyatta) and the Delaware Handicap. She also placed in the Beldame.

That's not what I'm saying at all. We are talking about comparable records in top class races between two talented mares. I'm not saying that Zenyatta's one win should give her the automatic advantage. It could have been an off day for Ginger Punch. But why should GP beating her to even the score, on a synthetic track at that, mean that she's the champion? Same here. Zenyatta shouldn't have to beat GP twice to win a title when it would only take one win for GP to be the champ.

I don't watch college football.

And I never mentioned Ginger Punch specifically. What about Hystericalady? Has she lost to Zenyatta? All 3 have the necessary credentials to win the Eclipse should any of them win the Distaff. If Zenyatta goes in the Classic and loses, while one of the other 2 wins the Distaff, who do you think is winning the Eclipse?

My point about the number of starts thing is that in years past, even those males wouldn't have been asked to do as much as they did so soon in their careers. But it's a different game now. The same things that horses used to be asked to do 8-10 races into a career, they are now being asked to do 3-5 in. In years past, horses raced 30+ times over multiple seasons so there was no rush to do things. Now, when you're looking at a 10-15 race career max, the timetables are pushed way up.

Not with this filly obviously. You realize they didn't bring her out for her first career start till late in her 3yo year, right? If it took this long to get her to the races, why would they try to fry her in just a few starts? If anyone's not in a rush, its Zenyatta's connections.

[King Glorious]

I just don't see running against males as being more difficult than running against females simply because of the fact that they are males. I mentioned Personal Ensign earlier but I always thought she was given way too much credit for beating the boys. It was Gulch and King's Swan at 9f. Facing boys in and of itself is not tough if you are better than them. Proud Spell probably had a tougher race in the Alabama than she would have had she gone in the Jim Dandy or Travers because the horse she faced in Music Spell is better than anything in those two male races, IMO. If you want to talk about a race frying a horse, look no further than that effort and her subsequent run in the Cotillion.

[10 pnt move up]

I have a carefull eye on the meet, what I love is people who dont handicap the races and look at the charts and say "bias". It might be, but yesterday for example all the pace horses were really bad form/talent. Today a horse with good form went wire to wire in the second. I suspect it players closer to HP then to Del Mar. To me HP was a fair track for the most part, when people say it does not play like dirt I think alot of them are saying "its not nearly as speed biased".

Ginger Punch is not as good as HL or Zenyatta and would lose to both on a dry dirt track, and even likely on a synthetic track.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Today a horse with good form went wire to wire in the second. I suspect it players closer to HP then to Del Mar. To me HP was a fair track for the most part, when people say it does not play like dirt I think alot of them are saying "its not nearly as speed biased".

Speaking of that horse, Details R Sketchy, I didn't think he looked nearly as good as he did at Del Mar, although he did show some grit when challenged to pull clear late. Looked like he was under a lot of pressure through the stretch though, and I'd imagine he won't go much further than 6 or 7f (he's by King's Bishop runner-up Great Notion).

The Hollywood Prevue is probably next, but I don't think he's the next Afternoon Deelites.

Watch for a horse that came out of his maiden race. Can't remember the name, but its a Distorted Humor owned by George Strawbridge and trained by Neil Drysdale. Was a good 12 lengths off the leader early and was the only horse from the back markers to rally, coming on in the far turn to be a decent 4th about 5 back.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I just don't see running against males as being more difficult than running against females simply because of the fact that they are males. I mentioned Personal Ensign earlier but I always thought she was given way too much credit for beating the boys. It was Gulch and King's Swan at 9f. Facing boys in and of itself is not tough if you are better than them. Proud Spell probably had a tougher race in the Alabama than she would have had she gone in the Jim Dandy or Travers because the horse she faced in Music Spell is better than anything in those two male races, IMO. If you want to talk about a race frying a horse, look no further than that effort and her subsequent run in the Cotillion.

That's fair enough, though I don't necessarily agree that the 3yo colt races were by any means easier.

And just for the record, Gulch was a Grade 1 winner at 9f and classic-placed. Maybe he didn't win all his route races, but he certainly could get the distance.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That's fair enough, though I don't necessarily agree that the 3yo colt races were by any means easier.

And just for the record, Gulch was a Grade 1 winner at 9f and classic-placed. Maybe he didn't win all his route races, but he certainly could get the distance.

I didn't mean to imply that Gulch was a flunky at the distance. He was a very talented horse by all means. I just meant that she wasn't facing a horse that was probably among the top 10 older male route runners that year.

Let's say it wasn't the Dandy or the Travers. Say it was the Super Derby or the WV Derby? I think those would have been easier for her than the Alabama was.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

[i]

Name one that wasn't trained by D. Wayne Lukas.

Cocoa Beach (CHI), Personal Ensign, Pride, My Juliet, Relaxing, Summer Guest, Susan's Girl, Very Subtle, Xtra Heat, Desert Stormer, Typecast, Persian Tiara, Ta Wee, Shuvee, This is off the top of my head, which tends to dwell on the days of my youth.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Cocoa Beach (CHI), Personal Ensign, Pride, My Juliet, Relaxing, Summer Guest, Susan's Girl, Very Subtle, Xtra Heat, Desert Stormer, Typecast, Persian Tiara, Ta Wee, Shuvee, This is off the top of my head, which tends to dwell on the days of my youth.

Oh, geez. First off, can we lay off Personal Ensign already? She was one-in-a-million or whatever.

Secondly, we're trying to talk about the distaff division (ie dirt routers). Its well established that sprinting fillies can tear up with colts for 3/4s of a mile. See ya Very Subtle, My Juliet, Desert Stormer (brutal), Ta Wee.

Thirdly, Susan's Girl was champion 3yo filly. I don't think she ran against colts til she was older. By the same token, Shuvee was the dominant 3yo filly of 1969, winning the Triple Tiara and the Alabama. She lost the championship to Gallant Bloom, who beat her a couple of times in lesser races like the Delaware Oaks and the Gardenia. Either way, she didn't face colts til later.

The rest of your examples are basically plodding stayers that might have run against males in marathon races. They weren't, in many instances, even at the top of their respective divisions much less dominant, and thus not particularly relevant to the discussion at hand.

Oh...and Cocoa Beach?