Tale of Ekati to the Jerome

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He also won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles. Other than the King's Bishop, which obviously I feel he should have run in ( and would have won ), where was he getting a Grade 1 going shorter?

However, and more importantly, trainer's often take the heat for owner decisions. It's part of their job.

Please...he would not have won The Kings Bishop....he would have gotten ANOTHER ground saving trip and failed again. He got the dream trip of a lifetime in The Wood and still barely won. This horse hasnt run a good race all year.

You know who will crush him if they meet in The Jerome.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

He got the dream trip of a lifetime in The Wood and still barely won.

Court Vision got a dream trip in the Woodward. Tale of Ekati, as usual, made a middle move and got tired after the second turn, still managing to outstagger a fried pacesetter and a horrible closer in slow time.

To me, Tale of Ekati is like a poor man's Macho Again. Decent around two turns, would be very good around one.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Court Vision got a dream trip in the Woodward. Tale of Ekati, as usual, made a middle move and got tired after the second turn, still managing to outstagger a fried pacesetter and a horrible closer in slow time.

To me, Tale of Ekati is like a poor man's Macho Again. Decent around two turns, would be very good around one.

Explain something to me; at the broadest level.

If there's a race in which 3 of the top 5 horses, at the qtr and half mile calls, finish in the top 4, and the top 3 at the 6f and 8f calls finish 1-2-4, and only a single horse comes (way) off the pace, to finish 3rd, how is it that THAT horse got the perfect trip?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Explain something to me; at the broadest level.

If there's a race in which 3 of the top 5 horses, at the qtr and half mile calls, finish in the top 4, and the top 3 at the 6f and 8f calls finish 1-2-4, and only a single horse comes (way) off the pace, to finish 3rd, how is it that THAT horse got the perfect trip?

Do you really want me to 'explain', or are you just trying to get a debate going? To not think that Court Vision got a dream setup is to completely ignore fractions.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Do you really want me to 'explain', or are you just trying to get a debate going? To not think that Court Vision got a dream setup is to completely ignore fractions.

I realize that the idea behind numbers is that if your numbers say that a horse got a certain trip, then the horse must've gotten that trip. This is only the case if trips are determined SOLELY by the fractions (or final times). Believe it or not, there are some who don't believe in numbers and believe that the way a race shapes up, ultimately, is more representative. This assumes that there is very little that separates contenders. And, if this is the case, the set of races that are determined by numerical pace is a subset of some larger set.

This isn't quantum physics. The 'truth' isn't hidden from the thing itself. By looking at a race I should be able to tell who got the best and worst of it. And, in this particular case, CV, didn't get the best of it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I realize that the idea behind numbers is that if your numbers say that a horse got a certain trip, then the horse must've gotten that trip. This is only the case if trips are determined SOLELY by the fractions (or final times). Believe it or not, there are some who don't believe in numbers and believe that the way a race shapes up, ultimately, is more representative. This assumes that there is very little that separates contenders. And, if this is the case, the set of races that are determined by numerical pace is a subset of some larger set.

This isn't quantum physics. The 'truth' isn't hidden from the thing itself. By looking at a race I should be able to tell who got the best and worst of it. And, in this particular case, CV, didn't get the best of it.

In a general sense I agree with you on the race dynamics concept and how, theoretically it should apply in this race, but considering Court Vision's overall pps it is fair to say he benefited from a good setup in the Wood.

I think the better argument is probably that the Wood was a lousy race and only War Pass ran a respectible race all things considered ( one being that 1 1/8 is too far for him....the other obviously being the rabbit ).

[ateamstupid]

You certainly don't have to be a quantim physicist to realize that Court Vision couldn't even pass a horse who ran probably one of the fastest opening quarters in a two-turn AQU stake ever.

As a one-run deep closer (plodder), what setup would've been more beneficial to Court Vision?

This "horses who were A-B-C-D early ran Z-Y-X-W" analysis is useful, but only when used in conjuction with early and late fractions and with some idea of how good those A-B-C-D horses are.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You certainly don't have to be a quantim physicist to realize that Court Vision couldn't even pass a horse who ran probably one of the fastest opening quarters in a two-turn AQU stake ever.

As a one-run deep closer (plodder), what setup would've been more beneficial to Court Vision?

This "horses who were A-B-C-D early ran Z-Y-X-W" analysis is useful, but only when used in conjuction with early and late fractions and with some idea of how good those A-B-C-D horses are.

Only very special horses run down front runners that have gotten away without getting some help from horse(s) ahead of them. Your mistake here, is that you assume, as is natural, that the only way a frontrunner has an advantage is by running slow fractions. In fact, running very fast, without being challenged at a key point in the race, and then basically crawling home, is equally, if not more effective. In this sense, then, MOVES/race dynamics are superordinate to pace. Think about it.

[ateamstupid]

Nice to see Visionaire's true colors when he doesn't have meltdown fractions to run at.

It's scary to think what Tale of Ekati would've done had he rightfully been kept around one turn.

[Betsy]

You and I Forever ran surprisingly well - I was down on him after the PA Derby

[GPK]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Nice to see Visionaire's true colors when he doesn't have meltdown fractions to run at.

It's scary to think what Tale of Ekati would've done had he rightfully been kept around one turn.

You been saying it for a while Joe. Hope you got some on the win end.

[outofthebox]

I thought the sky was the limit for him after his Futurity win last year. I guess his limit is the one turn. On to the Cigar Mile?

[Bobby Fischer]

best thread ever