Jerry Brown of TG

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by asudevil

I will preface this by saying I have immense respect for his accomplishments and contributions to our beloved game. I am familiar with TG but by no means an authority.

Some friends of mine attended the TG seminar today at Siro's. Jerry was emphatic about taking a strong position against Indian Blessing and Zenyatta. They were essentially "throw outs" in his opinion. OK, we know the result and I'm not here to provide hindsight. But my question to you TG'ers out there is why was this the gospel? Especially Zenyatta who was racing against NOBODY!

not sure about zenyatta but i know indian blessing ran a -4 her prior race which was the best figure ever by a 3yo filly and the expectation was she would bounce.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

not sure about zenyatta but i know indian blessing ran a -4 her prior race which was the best figure ever by a 3yo filly and the expectation was she would bounce.

But just expecting a bounce is not enough. The opposition has to be taken into account. She could have bounced to the moon and still been good enough to beat that field. So many times I see people say they expect a horse to bounce and automatically assume that means they can't win when in actuality, even huge regression is still much better than anything else the opponents can do.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

But just expecting a bounce is not enough. The opposition has to be taken into account. She could have bounced to the moon and still been good enough to beat that field. So many times I see people say they expect a horse to bounce and automatically assume that means they can't win when in actuality, even huge regression is still much better than anything else the opponents can do.

the question was did you want to bet her at 3-5 or one of the other's.

it's a difficult argument to make after the fact but i think the smarter bet was trying to find the one to beat her.

i don't try to beat every heavy favorite. but i thought there was a reason to think she was vulnerable today.

[King Glorious]

Well, I think you hardly ever want to play any horse at 3/5 odds. But I think there's trying to beat a favorite that's vulnerable because you really believe it and then there's trying to beat a favorite just because the odds are good on another horse. For me, this was one of those races where instead of doing what I felt was wasting money trying to beat a favorite that looked like a lock, it was better to just pass the race. Some people like to look at a race and even if they don't like a horse's chances to win, they will let the odds tell them otherwise. Me, if I don't think a horse has a shot to win, it wouldn't matter if the odds were 1/5 or 50/1.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Well, I think you hardly ever want to play any horse at 3/5 odds. But I think there's trying to beat a favorite that's vulnerable because you really believe it and then there's trying to beat a favorite just because the odds are good on another horse. For me, this was one of those races where instead of doing what I felt was wasting money trying to beat a favorite that looked like a lock, it was better to just pass the race. Some people like to look at a race and even if they don't like a horse's chances to win, they will let the odds tell them otherwise. Me, if I don't think a horse has a shot to win, it wouldn't matter if the odds were 1/5 or 50/1.

Why pass when you can she can be singled in a massive pick 4 pool?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Well, I think you hardly ever want to play any horse at 3/5 odds. But I think there's trying to beat a favorite that's vulnerable because you really believe it and then there's trying to beat a favorite just because the odds are good on another horse. For me, this was one of those races where instead of doing what I felt was wasting money trying to beat a favorite that looked like a lock, it was better to just pass the race. Some people like to look at a race and even if they don't like a horse's chances to win, they will let the odds tell them otherwise. Me, if I don't think a horse has a shot to win, it wouldn't matter if the odds were 1/5 or 50/1.

and you were clearly correct.

prior to the race i thought there was a reasonable argument for some of the others.

like i said, it's very thin ice to be arguing after the race. but tg sheets do identify vulnerable favorites often enough that i'll pay attention in a race like this. that was the original question.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

and you were clearly correct.

prior to the race i thought there was a reasonable argument for some of the others.

like i said, it's very thin ice to be arguing after the race. but tg sheets do identify vulnerable favorites often enough that i'll pay attention in a race like this. that was the original question.

Well, I thought the question wasn't whether or not she was vulnerable but why would he call them throwouts. I think there's a difference between the two classifications.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Well, I thought the question wasn't whether or not she was vulnerable but why would he call them throwouts. I think there's a difference between the two classifications.

okay. i guess that's just good marketing.

no one pays a lot for vulnerable favorites. but favorites you can throw out. that's money.