Fasig-Tipton July sale

[Bobby Fischer]

the pedigrees that had caught my eye in catalogue and results:

hip SIRE/DAM price
BUYER

57 GRAND REWARD/QUIET MISS 60,000
C BALLINSWOOD SALES KENNETH L & SARAH K RAMSEY

71 LEROIDESANIMAUX (BRZ)/RUNAWAY ROYALTY 45,000
F TAYLOR MADE SALES AGENCY, SUNRISE STABLE SOUTH, AGENT
AGENT LXXX

127 ROCK HARD TEN/TO THE RAINBOW (FR) 50,000
C HOPEWELL FARM LLC AGENT V FOUR DIAMONDS PINHOOKING, AGT

136 GRAND REWARD/TURK MACHINE 95,000
C EQUUS FARM (JERRY CUMMINS/ TODD QUAST, AGENT
PAUL ADAMS), AGENT

236 SPEIGHTSTOWN/ENGLAND'S ROSE 170,000
F TAYLOR MADE SALES AGENCY, HARTLEY-DERENZO THOROUGHBREDS
AGET XCVII


339 STORMY ATLANTIC/MISS LUCY 52,000
C BRANDYWINE FARM, AGENT RANDY MILES BLOODSTOCK
FOR LIBERATION FARM ET AL 377 KAFWAIN/RIFFLE 70,000
C MILLENNIUM FARMS AGENT II GULF COAST FARM

390NOT SOLD


396 MACHO UNO/SNOW FLOWER 135,000
C CROWNING POINT FARM, AGENT MIKE RYAN, AGENT

397 - OUT -

513 GULCH/EVANGEL 30,000
F BILL REIGHTLER, AGENT JAMES J. SMITH, AGENT

[sumitas]

There were about 24 RNAs below $20k.
There were 55 RNAs between $20k and $50k, = 79 RNAs out of 112 total head not sold were under $50K.
There were 33 RNAs over $50k today of which 4 RNAs were over $100k; 1 Alfeet Alex, 1 Grand Reward, and 2 Roman Rulers.

edit...numbers may not be precise but they are darn close.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by sumitas

There were 28 RNAs over $50k today. There were about 23 RNAs below $20k. So there were 61 RNAs between $20k and $50k, or 79 RNAs out of 122 total head not sold were under $50K. 29 RNAs between $50 and $100k. There were 4 RNAs over $100k; 1 Alfeet Alex, 1 Grand Reward, and 2 Roman Rulers.

Thanks for the breakdown. 2/3's of your buybacks were under $50k, and another 25% between 50k and 100k. Just look at the marketplace. You have a hot horse, at the top of the market -- yes, the right people will be "on him" (or her). The low to middle market is hurting. This will spill over, or will be the spill over, to the remainder of the marketplace and industry.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

There are plenty of people to buy those $40000 horses but not many sellers willing to let them go for that. I will never understand the logic that it is somehow the buyers fault that the sellers arent realistic with prices.

[sumitas]

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The sellers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

[Cannon Shell]

If your horse doesnt bring 20k in this sale you either have a physical issue or really bad judgement on what your horse is worth.

[Bobby Fischer]

hey do the higher# hips from the catalogue go at a later date? or what i am i missing?

-Edit Cool

[ELA]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The buyers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

Dead on. Like I said, when I go to the 2yo sales and I see horse after horse selling for $20k to $50k (from $10k and $20k stallions), it just makes you sit back and wonder. Haven't the sellers learned anything yet? Just look at what it takes to get a horse from yearling to the starting gate, or from yearling to the 2yo sale.

Eric

[sumitas]

Date Sold Amount Average N/sold Median

7/14/08 142 13,311,000 93,739 112 75,000

7/15/08 163 14,840,000 91,043 81 75,000

Totals 305 28,151,000 92,298 193 75,000



Date Sold Amount Average N/sold Median

7/16/07 178 15,826,000 88,910 89 75,000

7/17/07 176 20,615,000 117,131 78 90,000

Totals 354 36,441,000 102,941 167 80,000
2nd session numbers:
8 head RNA less than $20k.
33 RNA $20 - $50k.
32 RNA $51k - $100k.
8 RNA over $100k including hip #509 RNA $325k http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/509.pdf

The 2nd session RNAs were about evenly split at $50k. The first session saw 2/3 of RNAs under $50k. So the 2nd session saw higher priced RNAs.

NYbreds today: #469 More Than Ready/Bronze Autumn-Mr Greeley filly OUT, #546 Dixie Union-Kings Fancy colt $150k, #555 Grand Slam/Lemon Tart colt $123k.

Lowest priced hip #319 filly sold for $11k http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2008/0714/319.pdf

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Cannon I was just starting to wonder that myself. It seems to me there was money there for that middle market and lower middle market. The bids were made on all the horses. The sellers wanted more.

I can understand the dissapointment below $20k (about 23% of the RNAs) but over that seems like reasonable bids.

5 hips tied for lowest bid of $10k each. Each was an RNA.

Yeah, bids were made on all of the horses. But who were placing the bids.???

[ELA]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Yeah, bids were made on all of the horses. But who were placing the bids.???

The million dollar question! Or in this case the $10,000 question? LOL.

Whenever I try and buy a horse that went RNA -- the mystery is always "where was the last live bid"

I had one in the Keeneland sale and I am telling you, there was one live bid other than my own from $45k all the way to $65k. I was very thankful there was at least one buyer there. Of course it can be a totally different story when there is no live bid. A seller, consignor, anyone can bid it up themselves to create the after-sale market.

Bottom line -- I think below $100k, this market will take a major hit.

Eric

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

There are plenty of people to buy those $40000 horses but not many sellers willing to let them go for that. I will never understand the logic that it is somehow the buyers fault that the sellers arent realistic with prices.

That's the problem with the marketplace, vis a vis an inefficient market. Everyone would like to believe it's an efficient market, but far too many sellers turn deaf ears to the reality. There will be a major fallout, a market correction so to speak, and we'll see a cleansing of the market.

Unfortunately, like you said, there aren't sellers to accomodate that part of the market. All the sellers are looking to sell big money horses. There are only so many sellers and horses who can deliver the product that the top end buyers are looking for.

More importantly, in today's market -- today -- who new has come to the table to play the game at that level? Interesting observation. You see a Bob Lewis pass away, Sanan back off, a friction between Coolmore and Darley/Godolphin/et al, Melnyk back off, and so on. A new player comes along -- like Einsidler -- plays a bit and then backs off. Zayat comes along, plays in the big leagues, but not enough to make up for the losses. For the few truly hot horses -- there are just a few major players. The rest of the market is weak due to the sellers, the economics, etc.

Eric

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by ELA

That's the problem with the marketplace, vis a vis an inefficient market. Everyone would like to believe it's an efficient market, but far too many sellers turn deaf ears to the reality. There will be a major fallout, a market correction so to speak, and we'll see a cleansing of the market.

Unfortunately, like you said, there aren't sellers to accomodate that part of the market. All the sellers are looking to sell big money horses. There are only so many sellers and horses who can deliver the product that the top end buyers are looking for.

More importantly, in today's market -- today -- who new has come to the table to play the game at that level? Interesting observation. You see a Bob Lewis pass away, Sanan back off, a friction between Coolmore and Darley/Godolphin/et al, Melnyk back off, and so on. A new player comes along -- like Einsidler -- plays a bit and then backs off. Zayat comes along, plays in the big leagues, but not enough to make up for the losses. For the few truly hot horses -- there are just a few major players. The rest of the market is weak due to the sellers, the economics, etc.

Eric

Markets by definition are NOT efficent hence opportunity for the seller and or the buyer

[sumitas]

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/46167.htm
Take notice of the non-chalant comments about steroids in yearlings made by Jay Em Ess Stable's Samantha Siegel and West Point's Finley. One wonders if this ambilance about doping extends to their racing stable.

Remember, 22 buyers do not agree with the status quo statements from Siegel and Finley.