I Hope....

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Sudan ran an outstanding race today. First, he had to tote John Velazquez around which is a feat unto itself. He at least had some run left in the lane after the suicide pace duel.

If Frankel thought he was leaving himself a better chance to win the UN by leaving Champs Elysees in then he was dead wrong in retrospect.

NT

I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.

There's no way you can overrate how taxing that pace was going 11 furlongs and Sudan was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths. He finished clear of GI winner (albeit with an asterisk) Grand Couturier, True Cause and Mission Approved is still trying to finish the race.

NT

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.

Yeah, its overrated when a horse goes 22 and three quarters in the opening quarter of a 11f race. Yeah, overated. LOL

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Yeah, its overrated when a horse goes 22 and three quarters in the opening quarter of a 11f race. Yeah, overated. LOL

You don't understand what I'm saying - should I go search for all your posts and respond to them? That'll be fun.

[dalakhani]

[quote=hockey2315]I don't disagree that he ran ok. . . sort of. But when you consider who he actually beat in the race it's far from impressive. And I think the whole suicide pace thing in this case will be overrated by people.[/QUOTE]

No, I dont understand this. The genius of it is beyond us all.

[hockey2315]

The point is that now every idiot who thinks they're a trip handicapper will move this horse way up next time off of that speed duel when in all actuality he had no chance of winning yesterday no matter what trip. He was beaten by the horses who should've beaten him and finished ahead of two bad horses with a 20 length head start on them and the horse he dueled with who reacted worse than he did. If they ran the race again, he'd be 8-1 or so this time - and he'd still have little chance of winning even if both his jock and Mission Approved's jock consciously tried to avoid another speed duel.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The point is that now every idiot who thinks they're a trip handicapper will move this horse way up next time off of that speed duel when in all actuality he had no chance of winning yesterday no matter what trip. He was beaten by the horses who should've beaten him and finished ahead of two bad horses with a 20 length head start on them and the horse he dueled with who reacted worse than he did. If they ran the race again, he'd be 8-1 or so this time - and he'd still have little chance of winning even if both his jock and Mission Approved's jock consciously tried to avoid another speed duel.

He won his last race before when alone on the lead and if he was left alone this time i think the result is the same.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

He won his last race before when alone on the lead and if he was left alone this time i think the result is the same.

Right because the Grade 3 horses he beat at Golden Gate are comparable to Red Rocks, Curlin, and BTN. . .

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Right because the Grade 3 horses he beat at Golden Gate are comparable to Red Rocks, Curlin, and BTN. . .

Well, if he is alone on the lead, he may not have gone wide throughout and might have been able to relax. Regardless of who was running behind him, it was still a loose on the lead horse going a route of ground. That is dangerous in any circumstance.

In a 7 horse turf race in which two horses run off seems to lead to considerable latitude for the other 5. The probability of getting tightly bunched is lower and the race becomes diff. in terms of traffic. That seems significant. Also determining who will take the lead in the other bunch and what kind of pace to set becomes important. If Red Rocks went at them earlier for fear they would run off and Curlin followed suit, then Better Talk Now may have been there.

Splitting a small field up like that in a turf race seems significant. These huge turf fields where no horse wants the lead... traffic and placement become much bigger factors. Then they all make a giant run and the race becomes tighter more than at any other time barring the start. I think this is why turf races are so attractive for some people. You got a chance with a lesser horse.

I dont do these stats, but I would think that turf races have far fewer even money favorites than dirt fields of the same size, 8 horses and over.