7/12 (BEL): Man O' War (Gr. I)

[sumitas]

A very interesting article on dirt to turf super stars here.
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/hor...emy&id=3479881

[Scurlogue Champ]

If he doesn't go to the front, get the lead with some sensible fractions, and fight them off at the end, there is no way he wins.

Sudan will wire this field.

When Better Talk Now and co. start running, Curlin won't know what to do.

Has to go to the front...

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

If he doesn't go to the front, get the lead with some sensible fractions, and fight them off at the end, there is no way he wins.

Sudan will wire this field.

When Better Talk Now and co. start running, Curlin won't know what to do.

Has to go to the front...

WTF are you talking about? For the record - I'm not handing Curlin the win - and I'll play against him - but this makes no sense. Sudan isn't wiring the field for two reasons: 1. he sucks and 2. Mission Approved. He won't get the easy lead he got at Golden Gate and Mission Approved won't get the easy lead he got at Woodbine - so neither of them can capitalize on a pace advantage to make up for a significant talent disadvantage. Better Talk Now is obviously over the hill (even though he'll be the one I'll bet because his last was ok) and Red Rocks appears to be as well but still has a shot. Grand Couturier needs :46 and 1:11 to win and won't get that and the Darley horse is slow and has never run a competitive race. If Curlin takes to the turf - which isn't definite - it would take a throw-back effort by one of the two BC winners for him to not win by daylight. Whether or not he wins will have little to nothing to do with how the race is run barring some unforeseen anomaly.

[Mike]

I'm looking forward to this race more than any race I can remember in my 10+ years of seriously following horse racing

I can't go against Curlin...so I'll throw him in a 3 horse tri-box with Red Rocks and Sudan

[sumitas]

Lava Man, as pointed out in the article, is the only horse since Vanlandingham in 1985, to win Grade 1s on dirt and turf. This is a huge race. The biggest since the Kentucky Derby (well, maybe tied with the Belmont S.).

[Phalaris1913]

Lava Man, as pointed out in the article, is the only horse since Vanlandingham in 1985, to win Grade 1s on dirt and turf.

There are actually quite a lot of horses who won G1s on the dirt and turf since 1985.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Wrong was I.

[Oaklawnfan]

He's the best damn thing we've seen in a long while. While I'd like to bet against him. I can't.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

WTF are you talking about? For the record - I'm not handing Curlin the win - and I'll play against him - but this makes no sense. Sudan isn't wiring the field for two reasons: 1. he sucks and 2. Mission Approved. He won't get the easy lead he got at Golden Gate and Mission Approved won't get the easy lead he got at Woodbine - so neither of them can capitalize on a pace advantage to make up for a significant talent disadvantage. Better Talk Now is obviously over the hill (even though he'll be the one I'll bet because his last was ok) and Red Rocks appears to be as well but still has a shot. Grand Couturier needs :46 and 1:11 to win and won't get that and the Darley horse is slow and has never run a competitive race. If Curlin takes to the turf - which isn't definite - it would take a throw-back effort by one of the two BC winners for him to not win by daylight. Whether or not he wins will have little to nothing to do with how the race is run barring some unforeseen anomaly.

I'll bet you 20 bucks Sudan wins.

PM me

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I'll bet you 20 bucks Sudan wins.

PM me

Why would I want to risk what? $300 to win $20? No thanks. . .

[Bobby Fischer]

The fan in me surely wants Curlin to win.

This whole race is kind of confusing me, because the Man O' War seems like a september prep race for the Breeders Cup, not a July "1st serious race of turf campaign" race...

The horseplayer in me thinks that 3/5 on Curlin is all for the fans. He has the feel of a 4-1 shot, but surely he will go off around even money or so.

Grand Couturier did way better than expected off of hibernation last out. He really looked like he wanted the extra furlong, and he gets the monkey off his back and goes with Borel again. This may be one of the purest turf horses in the game right now. Everybody seems to think that GC is a sluggish horse that needs suicidal fractions... guess we will get some indication today....

[largo1]

Better Talk Now is running without his rabbit? Any ideas why?

[TheSpyder]

Are you talking about a soccer game or cricket match? I'll take the Congo. Surely this post has nothing to do with horse racing.

Spyder

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I'll bet you 20 bucks Sudan wins.

PM me

[herkhorse]

what is the post time of this race?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

what is the post time of this race?

5:15 EST

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

If he doesn't go to the front, get the lead with some sensible fractions, and fight them off at the end, there is no way he wins.

Sudan will wire this field.

When Better Talk Now and co. start running, Curlin won't know what to do.

Has to go to the front...

I too see this race as somewhat paceless, so Sudan should lead to atleast the top of the stretch, I've always been fond of Better Talk Now but I really see him up against it today without his pacesetter. This race looks like a perfect set up for Curlin, I don't see why he shouldn't handle the turf and if he can he should have first run from the true contenders. Red Rocks is a wildcard, despite his BC win I always thought he was a notch below the top europeans, he will take money mainly due to his reputation.

Is this not a great thing for racing? A really good dirt horse
who has proven himself trying another surface. Personally
I this experiment as terribly exciting. I really cant wait
to see how he performs.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Is this not a great thing for racing? A really good dirt horse
who has proven himself trying another surface. Personally
I this is experiment is terribly exciting. I really cant wait
to see how he performs.

I don't think anybody disagrees with that.

Originally Posted by miraja2

I don't think anybody disagrees with that.

Therefore I am pumped.

No scenarios necessary. I just want to see how he runs.