7/10: Belmont ($40k Carryover)

[Handicappy]

Parsixfarms- don't know if I'd see skylighter as a total bet against. While last was more then competitive here it was a career top. Frankel gave her 8 weeks. She shows some solid and consistent works and is cutting back from a 1 1/16. I'm not sure about her but she isn't easy to dismiss thats for sure.

[Handicappy]

Weird question I think. Can anyone tell me why EVERYONE is over-looking Alchera in the 7th? ML is 20/1 and while her last race was dismal, it was against open company. Her mile efforts put her right in with these. The only down side here seems to be she hasn't gotten it done at Belmont. But she has been in the money 7 of 9 times at Belmont and has a 1st and 2nd of 3 races at the distance over-all. Just seems to be alot of value there. At least in my bewildered brain.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Weird question I think. Can anyone tell me why EVERYONE is over-looking Alchera in the 7th? ML is 20/1 and while her last race was dismal, it was against open company. Her mile efforts put her right in with these. The only down side here seems to be she hasn't gotten it done at Belmont. But she has been in the money 7 of 9 times at Belmont and has a 1st and 2nd of 3 races at the distance over-all. Just seems to be alot of value there. At least in my bewildered brain.

From the great Paulino Ortiz! (Who has had an amazing meet). Seems best used underneath... The Hushion/Levine numbers look tough to topple there.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Kasept

From the great Paulino Ortiz! (Who has had an amazing meet). Seems best used underneath... The Hushion/Levine numbers look tough to topple there.

All right, all right. I did say it was a weird question. I get the message. lol. Sounds like your having a good vacation. Can't wait for Saratoga, Divine Park in the Whitney and a drink afterward at the Adelphi. Thanks for straightening me out. .. Now the darn horse will fly!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

All right, all right. I did say it was a weird question. I get the message. lol. Sounds like your having a good vacation. Can't wait for Saratoga, Divine Park in the Whitney and a drink afterward at the Adelphi. Thanks for straightening me out. .. Now the darn horse will fly!

Don't get me wrong.. I'm a BIG Paulino Ortiz fan having cashed many of his typical 38-1 runners over the years... My pal Jim Ortiz (no relation) tipped me off to Paulino around 1988...

Am having a VERY nice break... Thx! See you at Saratoga!

[Handicappy]

8/3,6/4,9/1a,2/6,7/6

$32.00

Very hard sequence.

[peetsa]

Race #6 (grass only) #1 In The Spotlight might be in a good spot here at a price.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Parsixfarms- don't know if I'd see skylighter as a total bet against. While last was more then competitive here it was a career top. Frankel gave her 8 weeks. She shows some solid and consistent works and is cutting back from a 1 1/16. I'm not sure about her but she isn't easy to dismiss thats for sure.

After failing repeatedly at short odds (and Frankel gave her every chance, on dirt, synthetic, turf, long and short), Skylighter finally broke through in a very ordinary MSW race in which she was able to wear down Anachronism, another money-burner who had absolutely no excuse that day. A daughter of the hugely-disappointing Sky Mesa, she has little early zip and will be a tactical disadvantage against fillies that appear more talented than her. Frankel's horses are almost always overbet, so I'd be willing to toss her at what is likely to be a shortish price.

[Handicappy]

Parsixfarms - Thanks for your thorough analysis. I think I get overly impressed by speed figs and I don't consider the company they are running in. So thanks.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

After failing repeatedly at short odds (and Frankel gave her every chance, on dirt, synthetic, turf, long and short), Skylighter finally broke through in a very ordinary MSW race in which she was able to wear down Anachronism, another money-burner who had absolutely no excuse that day. A daughter of the hugely-disappointing Sky Mesa, she has little early zip and will be a tactical disadvantage against fillies that appear more talented than her. Frankel's horses are almost always overbet, so I'd be willing to toss her at what is likely to be a shortish price.

Well I guess these comments are going to bite you in the ass. They always seem to get me. But it just goes to show you how tough handicapping is. Skylighter won by the way.

[the_fat_man]

Gotta love the FAIRNESS at BEL. If you're gutless BUT have a pace advantage, you can't win. Can't say that about too many tracks in the country, where horses like Spring Elusion would've won easily.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

nice ..get the bob and on this one and the frankle gets me..ouch..

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Handicappy

Well I guess these comments are going to bite you in the ass. They always seem to get me. But it just goes to show you how tough handicapping is. Skylighter won by the way.

I just saw the result. Hope I didn't sway any opinion you had. On what appears to be a pretty glib track, the pace was real slow, which probably helped, especially when Better Again didn't go, for whatever reason.

I still think that you are supposed to bet against horses like Skylighter. It didn't prove correct in this instance, but you still have to take the long view. That being said, I would not have thought she'd be 4-1, so I guess you could have a different perspective than the one you would adopt if she had actually been the 5-2 or less that I thought she'd be.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

that frankle is gonna cost me the whole deal ^%%#%$#$%#$%#$%#%$#%&#$%#%#%$##&%##..my own fault..tough game

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

that frankle is gonna cost me the whole deal ^%%#%$#$%#$%#$%#%$#%&#$%#%#%$##&%##..my own fault..tough game

I've been pissed with him since Empire Maker beat Funny Cide. I know, makes not sense. And the 6 got hit for 170K!!! Oh well, Curlin and whatever insane, horrible thing Dutrow has up his sleeve should be entertaining. You missed the 10th so don't jump off the bridge. A nice bottle of Bourbon would be nice right now. Can ya tell I was just in Lexington? Good work. I learn alot from your posts here.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I just saw the result. Hope I didn't sway any opinion you had. On what appears to be a pretty glib track, the pace was real slow, which probably helped, especially when Better Again didn't go, for whatever reason.

I still think that you are supposed to bet against horses like Skylighter. It didn't prove correct in this instance, but you still have to take the long view. That being said, I would not have thought she'd be 4-1, so I guess you could have a different perspective than the one you would adopt if she had actually been the 5-2 or less that I thought she'd be.

No sway at all. I do something that alot of newer guys do I guess and that is take too many opinions and not trust my own sometimes. So I learned a bit more here and I thank you for your opinion. I wish some folks swayed some of my other opinions!!!! But it comes down to being fun. Thankfully I am not dependent on this. I'd be alot thinner.