Bridge jumper on Zenyatta

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

What is the percentage of odds on favorites that finish in the money?

What is that percentage in stakes races?

What is the percentage in races where horses are facing similar company to the last?

What is the percentage for horses racing in similar conditions (ie track, distance, company) as last?

I bet when you break all of it down, without even taking into account what type of uber talent Zenyatta has or how bad those particular horses were, that the percentage is extremely high.

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

Yeah, and that is such a great bet? What are the statistics behind that bet? How often does that win? What percentage would you have to hit in order for that to be profitable for YOU? And just because your bet is a good one (and im not saying its not) what makes the bridge jumper's bet so stupid?

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Yeah, and that is such a great bet? What are the statistics behind that bet? How often does that win? What percentage would you have to hit in order for that to be profitable for YOU? And just because your bet is a good one (and im not saying its not) what makes the bridge jumper's bet so stupid?

let's see...

if i'm correct and the horse should be 3-1, he's going to win 25% of the time and i'm going to collect $22.00 for every $2.00 bet when it hits.

so, for every $8.00 invested I make a $14.00 profit.

That's a 175% roi.

if you could accurately predict a horse would be itm 99/100 times and it returned $2.10 for every $2.00 bet, you'd win $0.10 99 times ($9.90) and lose $2.00 once for a total profit of $7.90 on $200.00 bet. that's a roi of 3.95%.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

let's see...

if i'm correct and the horse should be 3-1, he's going to win 25% of the time and i'm going to collect $22.00 for every $2.00 bet when it hits.

so, for every $8.00 invested I make a $14.00 profit.

That's a 175% roi.

if you could accurately predict a horse would be itm 99/100 times and it returned $2.10 for every $2.00 bet, you'd win $0.10 99 times ($9.90) and lose $2.00 once for a total profit of $7.90 on $200.00 bet. that's a roi of 3.95%.

Fallacy. The notion that the horse "should" be 3-1 is purely subjective. He is actually 10-1. Base your numbers and ROI on the 10-1 probability.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Fallacy. The notion that the horse "should" be 3-1 is purely subjective. He is actually 10-1. Base your numbers and ROI on the 10-1 probability.

it's not fallacy after the horse wins. i thought that was how we based our logic on this thread.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

it's not fallacy after the horse wins. i thought that was how we based our logic on this thread.

OKay, im redboarding Zenyatta showing yesterday. LOL. And im sure you regularly find those 10-1 shots that shold be 3-1.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Fallacy. The notion that the horse "should" be 3-1 is purely subjective. He is actually 10-1. Base your numbers and ROI on the 10-1 probability.

and why would anyone want to bet a 10-1 shot when they think it's odds of winning are actually 10-1?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

and why would anyone want to bet a 10-1 shot when they think it's odds of winning are actually 10-1?

hey you made the faulty math.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

hey you made the faulty math.

given my premise the math was perfect.

i'd suggest the most likely flaw in my example is finding a horse that could finish itm 99/100.

compared to that, a 3-1 shot going off at 10-1 would be like finding water after falling out of a boat.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

even if the horse could be projected to be itm 99/100 times that's still far less value than finding a horse you think is 3/1 to win going off at 10-1.

it's just stupid on so many levels.

Not to mention that the percentage of odds-on favorites that finish in the money has to be way less than 99%.

[Revidere]

If you have the 200,000 what do you need the 10,000 for?

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by Revidere

If you have the 200,000 what do you need the 10,000 for?

and if you have two dollars why do you need ten cents?

I doubt these people are down to their last 200k. I'm guessing there are multi millionaires that want their racing rush just like the regular joes. Besides, it makes for good boasting at the club when you hit.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

and if you have two dollars why do you need ten cents?

I doubt these people are down to their last 200k. I'm guessing there are multi millionaires that want their racing rush just like the regular joes. Besides, it makes for good boasting at the club when you hit.

If bridge jumpers were multi-millionaires looking for a rush I doubt they'd find it playing horses to show for a 5% return.

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If bridge jumpers were multi-millionaires looking for a rush I doubt they'd find it playing horses to show for a 5% return.

But if they love the game, how else would they play ... for that dime?

Or maybe spend a few million on some yearlings ? Talk about bridge jumping.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

But if they love the game, how else would they play ... for that dime?

Or maybe spend a few million on some yearlings ? Talk about bridge jumping.

Big win bets, pick sixes, etc. . . Maybe buying horses. Most likely playing craps or blackjack at a casino or betting on sports, though. I think somewhere on here you can find a post about Nick Lachey's betting habits - very illuminating.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by PeteMugg

and if you have two dollars why do you need ten cents?

I doubt these people are down to their last 200k. I'm guessing there are multi millionaires that want their racing rush just like the regular joes. Besides, it makes for good boasting at the club when you hit.

now I am not saying it was a good idea... but it was a better idea than betting the horse to win.