6/28 (BEL): Suburban & Mother Goose (Gr. I's)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he would be heavy favorite at belmont...
at hollywood he will be lucky to be the 3-4 choice...
a grade 1 is a grade 1, why not ship in and stay for the whitney and woodward, everything in ny looks to be coming up soft, TIAGO COULD BE A BEAST ON THE EAST COAST. he is clearly better on dirt, as his 110 beyer and game victory over Heatseeker proves.

Why is Tiago clearly better on dirt? He beat second rate sprinter King of the Roxy in the Santa Anita Derby (at nearly 30-1) and IIRC wasn't everyone laughing at the prospect of ex-turf horse Heatseeker running even a remotely good race in the Oaklawn precisely because it was on dirt? Tiago only beat him by a head.

Aside from that, you have outclassed efforts in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and BC Classic to hang your hat on as far as his dirt form goes. At least he was placing in the Strub Series all winter despite unfavorable pace scenarios (as opposed to unfavorable surfaces).

Furthermore, when has he done anything in a race beyond 9f? He should have gone in the Met Mile if anything. I suppose the Saratoga races are within his distance range, but I'd be willing to take a stand against him in the Suburban and certainly wouldn't anticipate him winning like an odds-on horse even if he did get it done.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Why is Tiago clearly better on dirt? He beat second rate sprinter King of the Roxy in the Santa Anita Derby (at nearly 30-1) and IIRC wasn't everyone laughing at the prospect of ex-turf horse Heatseeker running even a remotely good race in the Oaklawn precisely because it was on dirt? Tiago only beat him by a head.

Aside from that, you have outclassed efforts in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont, and BC Classic to hang your hat on as far as his dirt form goes. At least he was placing in the Strub Series all winter despite unfavorable pace scenarios (as opposed to unfavorable surfaces).

Furthermore, when has he done anything in a race beyond 9f? He should have gone in the Met Mile if anything. I suppose the Saratoga races are within his distance range, but I'd be willing to take a stand against him in the Suburban and certainly wouldn't anticipate him winning like an odds-on horse even if he did get it done.

What has Tiago done on synthetic to make you think he's better on the fake stuff?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

What has Tiago done on synthetic to make you think he's better on the fake stuff?

Didn't say he was better on that synthetics, but his wins in the Swaps and Goodwood certainly suggest he's more than capable on the stuff in top company (relatively speaking).

Basically, I'm questioning his class more than anything. He's obviously versatile when it comes to surfaces and I don't see any clear evidence that he moves up dramatically on conventional dirt.

[Pedigree Ann]

Even though he doesn't win too terribly often, A.P. Arrow has quite a nice record - on the board in 17 of 23 starts, nearly a million and a half in earnings, has run decently vs good horses. Finished lapped on Asiatic Boy and Well Armed in Dubai, beat Political Force (who won this race last year) going 9f at GP, lapped on Corinithian at 9.5f, 2 behind Invasor in the Donn last year. He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

Yes, but when has he asserted his superiority when running against Grade 3 and allowance types?

Aside from the Clark, which I don't recall the race specifically, he's always struck me as a horse that finds a way to lose (or simply not come with a winning bid) no matter what the conditions.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Aside from the Clark, which I don't recall the race specifically, he's always struck me as a horse that finds a way to lose (or simply not come with a winning bid) no matter what the conditions.

You were right. This time he acted up in the gate and broke in the air, falling back to a distant last behind a slow pace. No way a horse with his [ahem] determination level was going to make up that ground.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Even though he doesn't win too terribly often, A.P. Arrow has quite a nice record - on the board in 17 of 23 starts, nearly a million and a half in earnings, has run decently vs good horses. Finished lapped on Asiatic Boy and Well Armed in Dubai, beat Political Force (who won this race last year) going 9f at GP, lapped on Corinithian at 9.5f, 2 behind Invasor in the Donn last year. He's not disgraced himself running vs. G1 winners and if he can get over the trip to Dubai as well as Curlin did, he shouldn't have much trouble with the n2x horses in here.

he will not win this race. WILL NOT, another clunk up 2 or 3 at best

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

he will not win this race. WILL NOT, another clunk up 2 or 3 at best

he has a far better chance of winning than perfect drip.

What will post time odds be on Rising Moon?