W/E Beyers - REVISED Curlin 110

[blackthroatedwind]

OK, deep breaths everyone, instead of the usual reacting without thinking, why don't you think about why Curlin got a seemingly low number ( considering his obvious talents ). Any chance the dawdling pace played a role in this?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Any chance the dawdling pace played a role in this?

Nope.
Pace schmace.
It is easier to simply ignore things like pace - and final times - altogether. Then you are free to assign various numbers to horses based only on how much you "liked" the horse going into the race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK, deep breaths everyone, instead of the usual reacting without thinking, why don't you think about why Curlin got a seemingly low number ( considering his obvious talents ). Any chance the dawdling pace played a role in this?

I don't think the pace was that much of a factor in Curlin not being able to run to his best form.

Mambo in Seattle rallied from 7th to win an 8.5 furlong ALW race with a 96 Beyer earlier on in the card - closing into fractions of 25.65 and 49.72 in a race void of pace.

All the other two turn dirt route races all featured pokey fractions as well. You don't exactly have to do much to beat horses like Einstein and Grasshopper on the dirt.

I had a hunch that they would split the variant in the 8.5 furlong races and 9 furlong races - but they didn't.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't think the pace was that much of a factor in Curlin not being able to run to his best form.

Mambo in Seattle rallied from 7th to win an 8.5 furlong ALW race with a 96 Beyer earlier on in the card - closing into fractions of 25.65 and 49.72 in a race void of pace.

MiS was only 3.5 lengths behind at the quarter and that race was contested early and with multiple moves, setting up nicely for a last runner.

Of course, this would require a non comprehensive view of pace.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The quarter was in 25 3/5ths - I would really hope he was only 3.5 behind.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The quarter was in 25 3/5ths - I would really hope he was only 3.5 behind.

You are very astute.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Thank you kindly sir.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I had a hunch that they would split the variant in the 8.5 furlong races and 9 furlong races - but they didn't.

My hunch proved right - that's exactly what they just did.

The 9f races (Hystericalady and Curlin) were split from the 8.5 furlong races (Pyro and Mambo)

It was a VERY questionable thing to do because the Pyro race came in between the HL and Curlin race - and tracks don't speed right up and slow right back down again - but... they have become very split variant happy when making the Beyer Figs - so it certainly seemed like a very safe bet they would do that... and I was a bit surprised they didn't do it initially.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My hunch proved right - that's exactly what they just did.

The 9f races (Hystericalady and Curlin) were split from the 8.5 furlong races (Pyro and Mambo)

It was a VERY questionable thing to do because the Pyro race came in between the HL and Curlin race - and tracks don't speed right up and slow right back down again - but... they have become very split variant happy when making the Beyer Figs - so it certainly seemed like a very safe bet they would do that... and I was a bit surprised they didn't do it initially.

Makes more sense to me from a capability standpoint - Hystericalady is better than her original fig (and probably this one too), Pyro's not 101 worthy, and 110 works for Curlin even though that seems a little high with the slow pace.

[jcs11204]

ok but this morning when i said it was low, ppl were all over me ?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Makes more sense to me from a capability standpoint - Hystericalady is better than her original fig (and probably this one too), Pyro's not 101 worthy, and 110 works for Curlin even though that seems a little high with the slow pace.

The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

You got to consider the source, ACE. The people criticizing horses like PYRO are also over hyping horses like Harlem Rocker and Unbridled's whatever. It's a number's frenzy. Enjoy it. It's what makes the game beatable.

[MISTERGEE]

after Curlins 110, 2nd best beyer of weekend is Rockerfeller. trained by marty wolfson in only his last two, runs a 106 beating some very speedy horses with ease. was basically running in the 70s beyer wise and couldnt win a nw2. reminds me of the turnaround of another live oak runner given to wolfson, Miesques Approval went from crap to breeders cup winner and turf champion

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

maybe it's the darley connection?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The blind hatred of Pyro on this site continues to amaze me.

What does capability have to do with these particular races? Hystericalady beat a bunch of muskrats and was hardly asked to run, and Curlin's race was affected by a slow pace. I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

He's an ok horse - but I just don't think he's that fast. I don't hate him at all - he was one of the two horses I keyed on top in the derby. But, I think the figs he earned earlier this year are about right (as opposed to the BC fig). And, more importantly, I don't think My Pal Charlie is capable of the type of fig that he would get if Pyro got a 101.

I'm not an expert figure maker like you are apparently, so it's just easier for me to look at a fig in relation to a horse's previous figs and make judgments based on that as well as pace, trip, etc... I don't have the time or energy to analyze final times, variants, etc... I'm left at the mercy of the fig makers, which isn't ideal, but I trust their judgment most of the time.

I didn't have a problem with Curlin's original fig because of the pace scenario and the fact that it was his first race back from Dubai, but obviously if they split the variant it works out to a 110. Hystericalady's fig also makes sense, so I don't have a problem with it. Like you said, she wasn't asked (we won't get in to this discussion).

Fat man - you're just corny sometimes. I respect your opinion on trips, but the rest of the time you're a bit of a douche bag.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't agree with adjusting figures for races like that just so they "fit" previous form.

I don't like it either. Why can't they just leave these ones as they were? Are we really to believe that the stretch of track from where they start the 9 furlong races to where they start the 8.5 furlong races is so slow that it needs to be split out?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

My hunch proved right - that's exactly what they just did.

The 9f races (Hystericalady and Curlin) were split from the 8.5 furlong races (Pyro and Mambo)

It was a VERY questionable thing to do because the Pyro race came in between the HL and Curlin race - and tracks don't speed right up and slow right back down again - but... they have become very split variant happy when making the Beyer Figs - so it certainly seemed like a very safe bet they would do that... and I was a bit surprised they didn't do it initially.

Back on the original topic, I actually think they did a pretty good job with the numbers. All the routes featured VERY slow paces. While it is possible that is due to jockey strategy, it is highly unlikely. It seems to me the part of the track used in routes and not sprints was very slow for whatever reason, be it wind or shade or whatever. So, a race with an extra 1/2 furlong in the slow footing could very well be different. It isn't any different than Belmont having different variants for various one turn distances.