Kent's Ride: Stride-by-stride

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

I love conspiracy theories, and that starter standing on the track in the same lane and spot Secretariat took in 1973 sure looks ominous.

And the white pants?

Sheesh.......was he wearing a white belt, too?

Immediately pre-race I think the national media was reporting $5.9 million had been bet at Belmont alone on Big Brown to win.

I was a bit suspect at the $48,000 superfecta payout when the solid chalk ran off the board, and the three longest shots on the board were in the Top 4.

I really thought the payout would have exceeded 48K and change, DH for 4th or not.

Not to mention the $3,700 trifecta with the two longest shots on the board in 1st and 3rd.

The trifecta really paid more like $7,500 because there was a dead-heat for 3rd. There were two separate winning trifectas. One paid $3,700 and the other one paid $3,950.

But if the exotics were still light, it doesn't shock me. I'm sure there was some significant smart money betting that he might run out after seeing the looks of that quarter crack.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The trifecta really paid more like $7,500 because there was a dead-heat for 3rd. There were two separate winning trifectas. One paid $3,700 and the other one paid $3,950.

But if the exotics were still light, it doesn't shock me. I'm sure there was some significant smart money betting that he might run out after seeing the looks of that quarter crack.

And the superfecta really paid $95K.

It's amazing to me the lengths people will go to try to imagine things that aren't there.

From a betting standpoint, Big Brown was very much an all or nothing horse, and his distribution in the runner up spots in exotic wagers was surely different than your usual heavy favorite. Plus, those pools reflect more realistic odds, as they don't contain the infrequent bettors just playing the TC hopeful to win. The bottom line is the tri and super payoffs were in line.

As for the ride on Big Brown......way too much of nothing. Believe it or not, jockeys have very little to do with outcomes overall and certainly nothing to do with horses that run last.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And the superfecta really paid $95K.

It's amazing to me the lengths people will go to try to imagine things that aren't there.

From a betting standpoint, Big Brown was very much an all or nothing horse, and his distribution in the runner up spots in exotic wagers was surely different than your usual heavy favorite. Plus, those pools reflect more realistic odds, as they don't contain the infrequent bettors just playing the TC hopeful to win. The bottom line is the tri and super payoffs were in line.

As for the ride on Big Brown......way too much of nothing. Believe it or not, jockeys have very little to do with outcomes overall and certainly nothing to do with horses that run last.

Since joining DT, I am most surprised to hear that from so many. To the common race track goer, I know that jocks are on their initial "to do" list when handicapping, which I'm sure makes you happy.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Since joining DT, I am most surprised to hear that from so many. To the common race track goer, I know that jocks are on their initial "to do" list when handicapping, which I'm sure makes you happy.

I don't know a single serious horseplayer that I respect who pays much attention to who is riding what horses. Of course you notice what may be a positive rider switch, but it's pretty incidental information, and hardly a deciding factor. I virtually never know who is riding the horses I like.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Since joining DT, I am most surprised to hear that from so many. To the common race track goer, I know that jocks are on their initial "to do" list when handicapping, which I'm sure makes you happy.

What a thankless job...zero credit for success & the first one to get blamed when something goes wrong...

[the_fat_man]

I'm one of those handicappers who actually does pay attention to jockeys and their rides. Certainly there are general cases and specific ones. There's no doubt that just about any 'professional' jockey can deliver a competent ride. The key, however, is whether he can do it consistently, and whether his 'strengths' fit a particular horse. It's interesting that those closely handicapping races, and trainers, looking for patterns, strengths, weaknesses, etc., would think that the jockey doesn't matter.

One of the best rides of the year, in my opinion, was by Maragh on Roll the Di this past Saturday. Prado butchered her the race before, while Maragh gave her an absolutely flawless ride. She broke from the outside post in both cases, and she probably doesn't win with a trip similar to the one Prado gave her.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm one of those handicappers who actually does pay attention to jockeys and their rides. Certainly there are general cases and specific ones. There's no doubt that just about any 'professional' jockey can deliver a competent ride. The key, however, is whether he can do it consistently, and whether his 'strengths' fit a particular horse. It's interesting that those closely handicapping races, and trainers, looking for patterns, strengths, weaknesses, etc., would think that the jockey doesn't matter.

One of the best rides of the year, in my opinion, was by Maragh on Roll the Di this past Saturday. Prado butchered her the race before, while Maragh gave her an absolutely flawless ride. She broke from the outside post in both cases, and she probably doesn't win with a trip similar to the one Prado gave her.

good assessment...I agree with you.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't necessarily agree with the theory that jockey's don't matter at all. But, this thread is a fine example of how focusing on a ride can cause people to lose sight of what really happened. We are 5 pages into a thread about Kent D's ride, that most people saw as much ado about nothing.

Which the whole point of the blog in the first place... people wanted to blame the jocks ride in this case (very publicly, through radio, print, TV), which I felt was quite over the edge. The reasons he lost go well beyond the guy in the saddle... well beyond.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I completely agree Travis and my comments weren't at all directed towards anyone, especially you. I thought your breakdown was fantastic.

Thanks...I knew they weren't directed, I was just adding to the discussion. I appreciate it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think the reason that some view riders as pretty unimportant when handicapping is because pretty much the first excuse a bettor uses when he/she loses is the ride. Of course there are instances when a jockey legitimately causes a horse to not win. But, people use rides as a crutch for their own mistakes in betting.

Right. After races are over there are sometimes, far less often than we hear around here, legitimate reasons to blame the rider. Hell, sometimes the riders even know it. Race riding comes down to a lot of split second decisions and even the best riders will sometimes make the wrong ones. However, before the race is run you just have to hope for the best and bet the horses you like....not the riders.

I respect the Fat Man a great deal, and I understand that some riders have strengths, and weaknesses, that may affect the horses they ride. If this works for him, great, but it doesn't for me. I can give an recent example in his favor. Garrett Gomez, who is a terrific rider, rode Guts Game the other day. I thought she had a sneaky chance to wire the field. Well, this obviously wasn't happening as even unpressured Prado went on a suicide mission with Love Co. However, Guts Game's only hope was to be the speed, and after breaking on top, Gomez completely rated her out of contention. Look, it was a bad opinion on my part for a number of reasons, but even if I had the right idea, Gomez was the wrong rider for that horse. He simply isn't the kind of guy you want on a potential sneaky speed. On the other hand, my friend Richard Migliore is one of the best riders around at understanding when he has a pace advantage, and using that positively. Maybe that's because he actually reads the Racing Form.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right. After races are over there are sometimes, far less often than we hear around here, legitimate reasons to blame the rider. Hell, sometimes the riders even know it. Race riding comes down to a lot of split second decisions and even the best riders will sometimes make the wrong ones. However, before the race is run you just have to hope for the best and bet the horses you like....not the riders.

I respect the Fat Man a great deal, and I understand that some riders have strengths, and weaknesses, that may affect the horses they ride. If this works for him, great, but it doesn't for me. I can give an recent example in his favor. Garrett Gomez, who is a terrific rider, rode Guts Game the other day. I thought she had a sneaky chance to wire the field. Well, this obviously wasn't happening as even unpressured Prado went on a suicide mission with Love Co. However, Guts Game's only hope was to be the speed, and after breaking on top, Gomez completely rated her out of contention. Look, it was a bad opinion on my part for a number of reasons, but even if I had the right idea, Gomez was the wrong rider for that horse. He simply isn't the kind of guy you want on a potential sneaky speed. On the other hand, my friend Richard Migliore is one of the best riders around at understanding when he has a pace advantage, and using that positively. Maybe that's because he actually reads the Racing Form.

You would think, when someone's job is to ride a horse to victory to make a living, they would size up the competition and handicap the way the race theoretically will be run before every race!

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

On the other hand, my friend Richard Migliore is one of the best riders around at understanding when he has a pace advantage, and using that positively. Maybe that's because he actually reads the Racing Form.

I remember at Saratoga a few years ago when I was working with the Special, the Mig was on an absolutely lone speed going two-turns on a wet Monday afternoon. I unloaded on him, and he took the horse right to the front and had a five length lead with one furlong left. He got nailed on the wire by a nose, and totally blew-up all my bets. He rode the race perfectly, did everything he was supposed to do, his horse just got a tad bit short. That same summer, he brought my younger brother back to the jockey's room once and gave him some goggles, you would have thought he was God.

I'm thrilled he's succeeding out west. Winning the Pacific Classic was a big, yet subtle, "told ya so" to the NY guys who stopped using him because of his age. He's a class-act, a great guy and lot of fun.