7 Days Rest

[Scav]

Isn't the data from this information a bit skewed in that there is many more instances for horses returning in 10 days and up, and less instances of 9 and down? I would have to guess that maybe out of those 8k races, maybe 200 of them had starters within the race off less then 6 days rest.....

[TheSpyder]

That's true and someone that knows statistics (too long ago for me) should be able to tell from the data points how many are needed to be statistically significant. Much like a trainer who is averaging 50% wins and has one out of two winners. Got a feeling Jim's all over it...we'll see.

Originally Posted by Scav

Isn't the data from this information a bit skewed in that there is many more instances for horses returning in 10 days and up, and less instances of 9 and down? I would have to guess that maybe out of those 8k races, maybe 200 of them had starters within the race off less then 6 days rest.....

[hailrazer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Isn't the data from this information a bit skewed in that there is many more instances for horses returning in 10 days and up, and less instances of 9 and down? I would have to guess that maybe out of those 8k races, maybe 200 of them had starters within the race off less then 6 days rest.....

My take is that if a trainer is confident enough to run his horse back in 3 or 4 days, the horse is likely sitting on a big effort and he wants to take advantage while he can. Tough to toss a horse running back so quickly when the trainer shows the confidence and takes the risk of garnering criticism in the case the horse runs poorly or worse....

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Isn't the data from this information a bit skewed in that there is many more instances for horses returning in 10 days and up, and less instances of 9 and down? I would have to guess that maybe out of those 8k races, maybe 200 of them had starters within the race off less then 6 days rest.....

you were close, in my sample there were only 164 starters running on five days or less rest out of a total of 65,928 runners, so its really not significant. but to answer your question its not skewed either, those horses won at a significantly higher percentage than the whole. i think its like hailrazer said, when someone runs back that fast its for a good reason hence the higher win percent.

the lower numbers for 6 (259 runners) and 7(569 runners) day turnarounds I think are just from trainers trying to push the envelope when perhaps they shouldn't.

14 days is one of the more common time frames, 2970 runners.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

you were close, in my sample there were only 164 starters running on five days or less rest out of a total of 65,928 runners, so its really not significant. but to answer your question its not skewed either, those horses won at a significantly higher percentage than the whole. i think its like hailrazer said, when someone runs back that fast its for a good reason hence the higher win percent.

the lower numbers for 6 (259 runners) and 7(569 runners) day turnarounds I think are just from trainers trying to push the envelope when perhaps they shouldn't.

14 days is one of the more common time frames, 2970 runners.

Might as well break down the 164 into 3,4,5. How many 3's?

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Might as well break down the 164 into 3,4,5. How many 3's?

--Dunbar

going by memory because the data is at home. it was roughly like this
5 days - 120 runners
4 days - 30 runners
3 days - 14 runners (i do remember there were 4 winners out of 14 attempts)

I did a little more breakdown on this last night by various tracks and not too surprisingly the large majority of these quick turnarounds occurred at Aqueduct. its very rare at most other tracks.

[horseofcourse]

On The Bill Daily won race 8 on 7 days rest 6/1 at Pocatello Downs. I'm sure you're all extremely thrilled by that fact. I lost that one as I bet on the fact that t-breds aren't supposed to run well on that short of rest. I do much better on the Quarter Horses! I will still sleep well quite confident in the fact that I am likely the all time leading better on this board at Pocatello Downs!.

[NoLuvForPletch]

I'm guessing that if a horse runs back in 3, 4 or 5 days it very well could have been the plan to do so. 6, 7 or 8 days gives the trainer just enough time to think about the bad trip, lack of pace in the race for his closer, poor break, etc...and wrongly determine the horse is no worse for wear, and enter him/her to less than desirable results.

[SniperSB23]

Not sure if your database can do this Jim but it would be interesting to also look at how many days it is to the following start based on how many days it was between your previous starts. Coming back in three days might have a good success rate but if it then takes on average of 60 days to make your next start it might not be so good of an idea.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not sure if your database can do this Jim but it would be interesting to also look at how many days it is to the following start based on how many days it was between your previous starts. Coming back in three days might have a good success rate but if it then takes on average of 60 days to make your next start it might not be so good of an idea.

yeah I've thought about that and agree it would be interesting to follow patterns like that. however at the moment I don't know of any way to track the days for a horse over multiple starts. I'm sure there's a way to do it if you spend enough time on it.