Weekend Beyers

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I disagree with a LOT of these this week.

LONE STAR my fig (approx equivalent Beyer)
Cinemine Stakes Storm Mesa 116 (104)
Valid Expectations Stakes Stealth Cat 106 (86)
Lone Star Handicap G3 Giant Gizmo 112 (94)

CHURCHILL DOWNS
Winning Colors G3 Graeme Six 109 (90)

MONMOUTH PARK
Monmouth Beach Stakes For Kisses 104 (79)

BELMONT PARK
Metropolitan Mile Divine Park 112 (95[!])
Pearl City By the Light 110 (90)
Vagrancy Handicap Looky Yonder 101 (74[!])

I am going to pray every night from now until July that Divine Park goes to the Salvator Mile next and squares off against Gotcha Gold. There will be so much dumb money on that 109 that he might even go off as the favorite against a horse that would beat him 95 times out of 100 at Monmouth and is on the cutback to his best distance.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I am going to pray every night from now until July that Divine Park goes to the Salvator Mile next and squares off against Gotcha Gold. There will be so much dumb money on that 109 that he might even go off as the favorite against a horse that would beat him 95 times out of 100 at Monmouth and is on the cutback to his best distance.

Yeah, Gotcha Gold will be like 20:1. Just keep it quiet.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yeah, Gotcha Gold will be like 20:1. Just keep it quiet.

That was obviously my point. I want a second favorite that I think is a heavy favorite to beat the favorite. It won't break the bank but for a P4 to single the second favorite in Gotcha Gold could go a long way. Would be more fun if I thought there was a chance Divine Park would wind up out of the tri but you can't win them all.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

That was obviously my point. I want a second favorite that I think is a heavy favorite to beat the favorite. It won't break the bank but for a P4 to single the second favorite in Gotcha Gold could go a long way. Would be more fun if I thought there was a chance Divine Park would wind up out of the tri but you can't win them all.

So, now you're hitting the Pick-4?

Honestly, if Divine Park and Gotcha Gold meet in the Salvatore Mile, unless there is significant other speed, Gotcha Gold will be the favorite.

Personally, I think Divine Park is a better horse. In fact, I think he's a lot better. But, I suppose if it was a big speed track, and Gotcha Gold got loose, he could win.

It's a moot point anyway, as the likelihood of Divine Park going there seems pretty low.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So, now you're hitting the Pick-4?

Honestly, if Divine Park and Gotcha Gold meet in the Salvatore Mile, unless there is significant other speed, Gotcha Gold will be the favorite.

Personally, I think Divine Park is a better horse. In fact, I think he's a lot better. But, I suppose if it was a big speed track, and Gotcha Gold got loose, he could win.

It's a moot point anyway, as the likelihood of Divine Park going there seems pretty low.

I'd love to, especially if I can single Gotcha Gold. If they both show up, regardless of the pace scenario, Divine Park will be the favorite. You'll have a horse coming in off a dull second with an OK Beyer at further than his optimal distance coupled with a horse that got an inflated Beyer while getting a dream trip. It is the dream scenario to bet, exactly the play I would think you would love. Perhaps in the P4 pool the money will be split but a split on a 95% chance as a single is good enough for me. I'd agree with you that Divine Park going there is a low probabilty which is why I said I'm praying for that scenario. He's a total play against next time and if that were against Gotcha Gold in the cutback at his home track I'll be salivating at the chance to bet it.

[blackthroatedwind]

I will ignore that you are deciding on a Pick-4 play weeks away from a race at a track I don't even look at.

I think Gotcha Gold is a complete mediocrity. I think Divine Park's last two races are pretty good. To me the two horses are miles apart.

I can't believe I won't find ten more interesting betting situations in the next week. Sorry, I really don't agree with anything you are saying.

The early Pick-4 at Belmont tomorrow has two, if not three, legs that are way more interesting to me.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I will ignore that you are deciding on a Pick-4 play weeks away from a race at a track I don't even look at.

I think Gotcha Gold is a complete mediocrity. I think Divine Park's last two races are pretty good. To me the two horses are miles apart.

I can't believe I won't find ten more interesting betting situations in the next week. Sorry, I really don't agree with anything you are saying.

The early Pick-4 at Belmont tomorrow has two, if not three, legs that are way more interesting to me.

You really think if Gotcha Gold and Divine Park faced off in the Salvator Mile it would even be close? You want to take a stand on Divine Park in that race? He's the stalker so has less to worry about from who else is in the field than a hopeless frontrunner like Gotcha Gold.