Why Andy Beyer is a Legend

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think it's the opposite, scav. The fact that the winner took so much money probably made him an include on lots of tickets that wouldn't have had him otherwise. If they had to bet blindly into that leg of the PK4 chances are they'd be much less likely to include an unknown commodity and would be more likely to just use the horses that they had a better read on. If we say the horse was 10-1 in the PK4 with the race being where it was R2/Leg 1, he'd probably be at least double that in the last leg.



The Pk4 is only a must play without budgetary constraints. The PK4 structure that you suggested doesn't give enough coverage to make it worth it if you're only betting $500. 3X4X5 just isn't going to work - either you're constrained to using a lot of favorites - opening yourself up to a chalk out, or you're not using chalkier horses and decreasing your chances of hitting it.

You are giving people too much credit in watching the board.

lets take said sequence into considering. You have this Emotivoal horse, and then you have an 8 horse field, 11 horse field, and 9 horse field......I think you could have easily went 3 deep in the 2nd leg, 5 deep in the 3rd leg, and 4 deep in the 4th leg....You would have had 38% of the field in the 2nd leg, 45% if the field in the 3rd leg, and 44% of the field in the last leg.

I would like to think that if I am giving myself the opportunity to split the field, that I can find the winner in my upper half.

We might just be too different players. Me personally, I would still have win money on the horse, but I would play some exotics to really crush the pools within that race, ESPECIALLY with a horse that is like this one, in the 8/1 - 15/1 range.

[hockey2315]

I disagree with 5 deep in the third leg - I know Fat Man loved the 1 but if you don't have that kind of opinion the race looks WIDE open. . . You've got the 1 (who I didn't personally like because he was a 12-time maiden), the 3 who was a first timer for turf sprint specialist Linda Rice, the 4 - a Pletcher cut-back with a huge Tomlinson, the 6 who showed a lot of speed last time and then died - but that was on yielding turf and Coa stayed, the 7 who was another hanger but had run very competitively in similar spots, the 8 whose a firster with some nice works from a trainer who has a great ROI with FTS, the 9 who was trained by Clement, and the 10 who didn't really run at all in his first race but now he gets blinkers and lasix.

That's 8 horses - not to mention that the odds-on favorite in the last leg finished last - a horse that many people probably singled or considered a stand-out.

The bottom line is that there's no reason to get greedy when you've already found great value - you have a free winner at 10-1!

Let's say that god/Andy Beyer (is there a difference?) told you that Emotival was definitely going to win - not just that he should win or that his odds didn't reflect his actual chances of winning. You have $500 and no knowledge of the rest of the order of finish or of how the other races will play out. You do, however, have access to all the handicapping materials you normally use. How would you use the $500?

[Scav]

It comes down to what you are content with? Me personally, i would have no problem with a $250 win wager on this horse, and getting knocked out of the others. At least I gave myself an opportunity to play around with good information into a 200k pool (Early P4 at NY) and other large pools, instead of topping out at 10/1.....

But again, it all depends on the person, the situation, and what they are content with.....

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

But again, it all depends on the person, the situation, and what they are content with.....

I guess it does - personally I can't understand why anyone would throw away free money for not so free money - even if there MAY be more of it. Seems sort of like people like my dad who wheel - "the exactas pay better than the win with everyone except for the 3 favorites" . . . O gee, I wonder why.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Anyone else think the pick 4 was a tad low considering a prohibitive favorite was beat in the first and last leg? And the 4th was such a crapshoot.

Looking at it right now, I think the best payout surrounding the horse was the early DD. The others seem right around par with the favorite running 2nd

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Anyone else think the pick 4 was a tad low considering a prohibitive favorite was beat in the first and last leg? And the 4th was such a crapshoot.

Depends on who you speak to about this one.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I hear ya. She was sort of lucky to trip out this time though. Another outside post and the result would have been different IMO.

That's exactly the point, HOSS. This filly had always gotten the poorer trip because she was either outside or routing. But she always tried and, in most of these races, just fell short. Of course, another interpretation would be that she's a hanger and not much.

Breaking from the rail she figured to sit and finally get a decent trip. Guess Fiona Freud didn't appreciate having to do the work Sun as much as she appreciated sitting the trip the time before.

For whatever reason she's become sort of a secondary 'pet' to me. She's in the same barn as my primary pet, Sky Dragon, another renowned hanger, who has finally put it together (somewhat) after one torturous beat after another. Perhaps much of that has to do with the fact that he doesn't like getting sticked and the trainer has obviously realized this (a year after I did, unfortunately) and instructed Maragh as such, given the way he's been ridden his 2 times out this year. Took a while but I finally got in the black with him.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's exactly the point, HOSS. This filly had always gotten the poorer trip because she was either outside or routing. But she always tried and, in most of these races, just fell short. Of course, another interpretation would be that she's a hanger and not much.

Breaking from the rail she figured to sit and finally get a decent trip. Guess Fiona Freud didn't appreciate having to do the work Sun as much as she appreciated sitting the trip the time before.

For whatever reason she's become sort of a secondary 'pet' to me. She's in the same barn as my primary pet, Sky Dragon, another renowned hanger, who has finally put it together (somewhat) after one torturous beat after another. Perhaps much of that has to do with the fact that he doesn't like getting sticked and the trainer has obviously realized this (a year after I did, unfortunately) and instructed Maragh as such, given the way he's been ridden his 2 times out this year. Took a while but I finally got in the black with him.

I think every trip handicapper in new york is married to sky dragon....

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I think every trip handicapper in new york is married to sky dragon....

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I was afraid that Garcia would OVER whip him, as Maragh was easy on him last 2 races. And while whipping lefty got him to change leads and straightened him out, it wasn't until he stopped whipping that SD took off, and won easily.

[Kasept]

While looking for something Beyer related, came across this gem of a thread from '08.. Being moved to the Hatton!