Why Andy Beyer is a Legend

[Scav]

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

5) Find a teller at Arlington who knows how to punch in any of those

[the_fat_man]

An interesting hypothesis would be if
the horse were running on SUN, when he does the NYRA show:

would he have given the horse out?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

An interesting hypothesis would be if
the horse were running on SUN, when he does the NYRA show:

would he have given the horse out?

Hell no he wouldn't have given the horse out, he might have 'mentioned' him as a price suck up play or something, but information like that comes around every 3-4 years now.......

All I ask is I GET ONE of them, and the horse actually runs like this one did

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

You really think that's how he played it?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You really think that's how he played it?

If I had $500, I would have played it this way

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that (1x3x4x5) ($60)
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses (x2) ($120)
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less ($10 on top, $5 behind) ($75)
4) Win money ($245)

Total of $500

[hockey2315]

If I had $500 I'd put $500 on the horse to win. Why key it in 2nd and 3rd? If you think the horse is a lock to win then that's just a waste of $. I understand the idea of giving yourself a little insurance if then horse runs well but doesn't win or if he has a bad trip but still gets a piece because he's the best horse - but you can't try to over-hedge things in this case - you go for the big/sure score. And why risk being wrong about other legs of a PK4 that you almost definitely have a less strong opinion on?

Your way: $2327.50 + 2596 + $300 + $290 = $5513.50

and that assumes that you hit every bet - which in this case is far from definite and not worth the risk when you consider that if you just played the horse to win for $500 you'd get back $5250.

Is the extra $263.50 really worth the increased risk? No way. Not to mention that you also have to worry about tax stuff your way. . .

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If I had $500 I'd put $500 on the horse to win. Why key it in 2nd and 3rd? If you think the horse is a lock to win then that's just a waste of $. I understand the idea of giving yourself a little insurance if then horse runs well but doesn't win or if he has a bad trip but still gets a piece because he's the best horse - but you can't try to over-hedge things in this case - you go for the big/sure score. And why risk being wrong about other legs of a PK4 that you almost definitely have a less strong opinion on?

Your way: $2327.50 + 2596 + $300 + $290 = $5513.50

and that assumes that you hit every bet - which in this case is far from definite and not worth the risk when you consider that if you just played the horse to win for $500 you'd get back $5250.

Is the extra $263.50 really worth the increased risk? No way. Not to mention that you also have to worry about tax stuff your way. . .

It is $40, or 8% of investment.

As far as your comment on the P4 is concerned, the power of having a $20 winner IN THE FIRST LEG of a P4 is HUGE. The first leg has the most information available for the uninformed.

As far as I am concerned, a P4 is a must play there because of the potential to spread in the other three races, and the LARGE potential of a p4 payout. With a win wager, you are maximized at a $20 payout on that win wager, on the P4 play, you can really make a huge score.

I am not saying to ignore the win wager completely, because that would be moronic.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

As far as your comment on the P4 is concerned, the power of having a $20 winner IN THE FIRST LEG of a P4 is HUGE. The first leg has the most information available for the uninformed.

I think it's the opposite, scav. The fact that the winner took so much money probably made him an include on lots of tickets that wouldn't have had him otherwise. If they had to bet blindly into that leg of the PK4 chances are they'd be much less likely to include an unknown commodity and would be more likely to just use the horses that they had a better read on. If we say the horse was 10-1 in the PK4 with the race being where it was R2/Leg 1, he'd probably be at least double that in the last leg.

Originally Posted by Scav

As far as I am concerned, a P4 is a must play there because of the potential to spread in the other three races, and the LARGE potential of a p4 payout. With a win wager, you are maximized at a $20 payout on that win wager, on the P4 play, you can really make a huge score.

The Pk4 is only a must play without budgetary constraints. The PK4 structure that you suggested doesn't give enough coverage to make it worth it if you're only betting $500. 3X4X5 just isn't going to work - either you're constrained to using a lot of favorites - opening yourself up to a chalk out, or you're not using chalkier horses and decreasing your chances of hitting it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think it's the opposite, scav. The fact that the winner took so much money probably made him an include on lots of tickets that wouldn't have had him otherwise. If they had to bet blindly into that leg of the PK4 chances are they'd be much less likely to include an unknown commodity and would be more likely to just use the horses that they had a better read on. If we say the horse was 10-1 in the PK4 with the race being where it was R2/Leg 1, he'd probably be at least double that in the last leg.



The Pk4 is only a must play without budgetary constraints. The PK4 structure that you suggested doesn't give enough coverage to make it worth it if you're only betting $500. 3X4X5 just isn't going to work - either you're constrained to using a lot of favorites - opening yourself up to a chalk out, or you're not using chalkier horses and decreasing your chances of hitting it.

You are giving people too much credit in watching the board.

lets take said sequence into considering. You have this Emotivoal horse, and then you have an 8 horse field, 11 horse field, and 9 horse field......I think you could have easily went 3 deep in the 2nd leg, 5 deep in the 3rd leg, and 4 deep in the 4th leg....You would have had 38% of the field in the 2nd leg, 45% if the field in the 3rd leg, and 44% of the field in the last leg.

I would like to think that if I am giving myself the opportunity to split the field, that I can find the winner in my upper half.

We might just be too different players. Me personally, I would still have win money on the horse, but I would play some exotics to really crush the pools within that race, ESPECIALLY with a horse that is like this one, in the 8/1 - 15/1 range.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If I had $500 I'd put $500 on the horse to win.

If I like a horse and it's decent odds (>5:1), I would also just bet it to win.

If there's a strong favorite in the race, I'll play a small saver exacta UNDER the favorite.

Spreading works real well when EVERYTHING works out.

I don't understand why I need to SPREAD when my strong opinion is in THIS race, not subsequent or previous ones. If, however, I have strong opinions in those races, of course I go exotics.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Scav

If I had $500, I would have played it this way

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that (1x3x4x5) ($60)
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses (x2) ($120)
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less ($10 on top, $5 behind) ($75)
4) Win money ($245)

Total of $500

So assuming you hit all of those, by my math, that's approx. $8,400 on a $500 bet... not too bad.

[Scav]

I have to be honest in that I hope Andy talks about how he played it because I don't think alot of people know how to actually play a horse that they love, or get worthwhile information on. Matter of fact, I screwed up this weekend with Much Obliged, I should have crushed her, crushed that race matter of fact, and I got a measley win bet on her.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by Scav

I have to be honest in that I hope Andy talks about how he played it because I don't think alot of people know how to actually play a horse that they love, or get worthwhile information on. Matter of fact, I screwed up this weekend with Much Obliged, I should have crushed her, crushed that race matter of fact, and I got a measley win bet on her.

you really think he wants to open that can of worms........

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you really think he wants to open that can of worms........

I am not asking for numbers, nor would I ever, but I don't find the question inappropiate

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by smuthg

So assuming you hit all of those, by my math, that's approx. $8,400 on a $500 bet... not too bad.

Not by my math. . .

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not by my math. . .

I figured in a $2 Pick 4 and not a $1... At that number, I agree the win bet seems to make the most sense.