Beyer still not sold on Big Brown

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Zippy Chippy

I don't think you can really fault Big Brown for having been foaled in a year when the crop was weaker than usual . . .

All this REGURGITATING is getting old. IF in fact the crop is weaker than usual THEN why weren't ALL THE EXPERTS ALL OVER BIG BROWN BEFORE THE DERBY?
Wouldn't you take $6.80 on a mortal lock? And he was a mortal lock IF the rest of the crop is crap. Right?

Wonder why, rather than spending time disseminating all this BS about the crop and BB's limitations (initially), some of these DOOFUSES weren't mortgaging their houses to get $6.80 (or that sweet $37.00 double with Proud Spell).

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

All this REGURGITATING is getting old. IF in fact the crop is weaker than usual THEN why weren't ALL THE EXPERTS ALL OVER BIG BROWN BEFORE THE DERBY?
Wouldn't you take $6.80 on a mortal lock? And he was a mortal lock IF the rest of the crop is crap. Right?

Wonder why, rather than spending time disseminating all this BS about the crop and BB's limitations (initially), some of these DOOFUSES weren't mortgaging their houses to get $6.80 (or that sweet $37.00 double out Proud Spell).

I'm sure you know this, but the best horse doesn't always win the Derby. I didn't think he was a mortal lock coming out of the 20 hole with only 3 starts under his belt. Sorry ...

I didn't cash a ticket on the Derby, so I feel like a real dumbass, but the above two reasons were reason enough to make me stay away.

[the_fat_man]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[cmorioles]

If Curlin faces Big Brown on tupperware, it won't prove anything other than which horse is faster on a fake surface that is nothing like dirt. Hopefully they meet before that on dirt.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

All this REGURGITATING is getting old. IF in fact the crop is weaker than usual THEN why weren't ALL THE EXPERTS ALL OVER BIG BROWN BEFORE THE DERBY?
Wouldn't you take $6.80 on a mortal lock? And he was a mortal lock IF the rest of the crop is crap. Right?

Wonder why, rather than spending time disseminating all this BS about the crop and BB's limitations (initially), some of these DOOFUSES weren't mortgaging their houses to get $6.80 (or that sweet $37.00 double out Proud Spell).

I find many expert handicappers to subscribe to the following. Until a horse runs a very fast race they simply do not consider a horse to be any faster then the horses tried speed. More likely then not they are right but it seems that they never break discipline. A horse is only as fast as they have run. I think there are exceptions which include Smarty Jones and Big Brown recently. Both are never going to be consider more then nice colt because never ever had that scary fast race. Whatever works for you I guess?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I find many expert handicappers to subscribe to the following. Until a horse runs a very fast race they simply do not consider a horse to be any faster then the horses tried speed. More likely then not they are right but it seems that they never break discipline. A horse is only as fast as they have run. I think there are exceptions which include Smarty Jones and Big Brown recently. Both are never going to be consider more then nice colt because never ever had that scary fast race. Whatever works for you I guess?

That is because most horses don't run faster. Sure, a few will burn you, but at 2 to 1, and many times less, who really cares? You'll do better in the long run assuming they aren't faster than the numbers they have run.

By the way, Smarty ran fast.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

That is because most horses don't run faster. Sure, a few will burn you, but at 2 to 1, and many times less, who really cares? You'll do better in the long run assuming they aren't faster than the numbers they have run.

By the way, Smarty ran fast.

I agree..They fool you thinking that they are faster then they are. It's hard to say how good Big Brown is but he really has an amazing start..

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

All this REGURGITATING is getting old. IF in fact the crop is weaker than usual THEN why weren't ALL THE EXPERTS ALL OVER BIG BROWN BEFORE THE DERBY?
Wouldn't you take $6.80 on a mortal lock? And he was a mortal lock IF the rest of the crop is crap. Right?

Wonder why, rather than spending time disseminating all this BS about the crop and BB's limitations (initially), some of these DOOFUSES weren't mortgaging their houses to get $6.80 (or that sweet $37.00 double out Proud Spell).

who are the experts anyway??

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

who are the experts anyway??

and why would any expert that was skeptical of Big brown before the Derby, not have modified his opinion by now?? its like if you weren't raving and drooling about this horse before the derby, you supposedly don't know anything.

[freddymo]

That's an easy one..Because Big Brown hasn't run a Big BSF as far as I can summize Beyer feels he is only as good as his best BSF which is just ok for a G1 3 year colt

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by freddymo

That's an easy one..Because Big Brown hasn't run a Big BSF as far as I can summize Beyer feels he is only as good as his best BSF which is just ok for a G1 3 year colt

This is similar to when the Catholic Church forced Clavius and the rest of the Jesuit intelligencia to speak out against Galileo's discoveries (and the Copernican view of nature) in an all out effort to preserve the Aristotelian natural view.

We know how well that went.


Beyer knows better; I'm sure.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by freddymo

That's an easy one..Because Big Brown hasn't run a Big BSF as far as I can summize Beyer feels he is only as good as his best BSF which is just ok for a G1 3 year colt

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO

ROund Pen

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO ROund Pen

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

[The Bid]

TFM,

Ive seen horses move up and down 4-5 points on sheet numbers depending what they do in their next start. They are a joke.

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Was BB the OVERWHELMING pick of the sheets BEFORE the Derby?

TFM you can go to either Web site thorograph.com or thesheets.com and review there Derby sheets for free you do have to register though.

But to answer your Question BB was the fastest horse going in and I believe if I remember right on thorograph if you took BB on top in the tri's over the horse's that had the next best numbers you would have hit the tri.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Round Pen

Freedy not to start an arguement but expert handicapper's do not use BSF to be honest most of the time they are useless to them. Go check out what BB ran on the sheets on thorograph he Ran a -4 1/2 which is the best number in the history since Thorograph started doing the derby OK if you don't Like Jerry Brown (I do) and Thorograph.

Go check out the Rag SHeets he ran a -1 which is the best number in the history of Ragozin's since they started doing the Derby. SO to say BB is not fast is totally not true IMO

ROund Pen

Big Brown ran a typical KD BSF period save the mushroom inspired Jerry Brown figs .

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Big Brown ran a typical KD BSF period save the mushroom inspired Jerry Brown figs .

Sheet figures are different from other final time figs because they take wind, weight and ground loss into account.

All the horses in the Derby carried 126lbs - the winners of the other route races carried between 113lbs - to -117lbs. That is reason #1 why Big Brown's figure will come back faster on a sheet style figure.

There was a strong reported stretch head-wind, backstretch tailwind on Derby day - and the 10 furlong Derby was the one race that day that featured the highest proportion of horses racing into the wind versus racing with the wind at their back. That is reason #2 why BB's fig comes back faster on a sheet style scale.

Finally ground loss - BB was hung wide on both turns in the Derby. Reason #3 why it comes back faster on a sheet style fig.

I'm not sure what kind of Ragozin BB got - but I'm sure it also came back more impressive than any non sheet style number had his race.

I think BB's Beyer was souped up a few points because of wind - and it could have been slower. However, on a sheet style figure, BB's race has to come back very fast.