Big Brown Beyer 109

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

no question about it, that field had much more appeal than this last one.

As previously stated...poly surfaces come into play here, tough to get a read on this year's crop. This was the most difficult crop in years to handicap before the Derby...Big Brown looked great but only three starts...it was, in a word, confusing. Probably will be this way for at least a few years until the different poly surfaces are better understood. The time to judge any crop is at the end of their 3 year old season, especially now...lets wait and see.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

As previously stated...poly surfaces come into play here, tough to get a read on this year's crop. This was the most difficult crop in years to handicap before the Derby...Big Brown looked great but only three starts...it was, in a word, confusing. Probably will be this way for at least a few years until the different poly surfaces are better understood. The time to judge any crop is at the end of their 3 year old season, especially now...lets wait and see.

i thought we were judging them at the time of the derby? who would try to make a definitive judgement about the entire season in early May?

I really don't know what the poly surfaces have to do with it.
and how can you say its the most difficult crop in years to handicap when a 2:1 favorite wins? the only difficulty was if you wanted to play against Big Brown trying to find a viable alternative. but it was real easy to look at the field and find the best horse talent-wise. that is seldom the case.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i thought we were judging them at the time of the derby? who would try to make a definitive judgement about the entire season in early May?

I really don't know what the poly surfaces have to do with it.
and how can you say its the most difficult crop in years to handicap when a 2:1 favorite wins? the only difficulty was if you wanted to play against Big Brown trying to find a viable alternative. but it was real easy to look at the field and find the best horse talent-wise. that is seldom the case.

I agree with Somerfrost here. I thought it was the most difficult Derby to cap, too.

Yes, Big Brown looked like the best horse. Was he betable at 2.4-1 from post 20 in his 4th start? I didn't think so. I thought he should have been the fav, but somewhere between 9-2 and 5-1. So, where do you look for value once you decide that Big Brown is over bet? (I'm still saying, like you, Jim, that he was the best horse going in--but that doesn't mean it was wrong to look elsewhere for value.)

Looking elsewhere is where the problems started, and the biggest problem was what to do with the races on synthetic. Pyro? Col John? Cool Coal Man? Monba? Cowboy Cal? How do you evaluate those horses? I found it very tough.

In my initial line I had both Pyro and Col John at around 20-1, based on my usual capping. I ended up fudging them to 10-1, because so may cappers I respect were (1) tossing the Blue Grass (but usually only for Pyro, among those that ran badly!) and (2) saying Col. John looked fantastic on dirt. Even at 10-1 I gave those two less chance than most, and I was not at all confident that I was right about it.

Unfortunately with the tendency to run fewer preps and the spread of synthetic, I don't see things getting easier any time soon.

--Dunbar

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree with Somerfrost here. I thought it was the most difficult Derby to cap, too.

Yes, Big Brown looked like the best horse. Was he betable at 2.4-1 from post 20 in his 4th start? I didn't think so. I thought he should have been the fav, but somewhere between 9-2 and 5-1. So, where do you look for value once you decide that Big Brown is over bet? (I'm still saying, like you, Jim, that he was the best horse going in--but that doesn't mean it was wrong to look elsewhere for value.)

Looking elsewhere is where the problems started, and the biggest problem was what to do with the races on synthetic. Pyro? Col John? Cool Coal Man? Monba? Cowboy Cal? How do you evaluate those horses? I found it very tough.

In my initial line I had both Pyro and Col John at around 20-1, based on my usual capping. I ended up fudging them to 10-1, because so may cappers I respect were (1) tossing the Blue Grass (but usually only for Pyro, among those that ran badly!) and (2) saying Col. John looked fantastic on dirt. Even at 10-1 I gave those two less chance than most, and I was not at all confident that I was right about it.

Unfortunately with the tendency to run fewer preps and the spread of synthetic, I don't see things getting easier any time soon.

--Dunbar

I did say that the only difficult part was trying to come up with the alternative to Big Brown. I agree that fewer preps poses a problem, but I still don't get the issue with synthetic. Colonel John may have looked fast in the dirt work, but his races did not scream that he was fast enough and he was the best of the synthetic group. didn't the synthetic speed numbers turn out to be very fairly well replicated on dirt? You really had to project some improvement on to him in order to make the case, and it was a flimsy case based more on the fact that he looked the part. I played this race wrong, thats for sure.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I did say that the only difficult part was trying to come up with the alternative to Big Brown. I agree that fewer preps poses a problem, but I still don't get the issue with synthetic. Colonel John may have looked fast in the dirt work, but his races did not scream that he was fast enough and he was the best of the synthetic group. didn't the synthetic speed numbers turn out to be very fairly well replicated on dirt? You really had to project some improvement on to him in order to make the case, and it was a flimsy case based more on the fact that he looked the part. I played this race wrong, thats for sure.

Wasn't he the only horse going from synthetics that was even within 10 lengths of his previous races in the Derby?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Wasn't he the only horse going from synthetics that was even within 10 lengths of his previous races in the Derby?

I don't know. but I did think he was the most likely one to step up in the derby based on his breeding and running style. I thought Gayego had run his best route already at 9 furlongs.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I don't know. but I did think he was the most likely one to step up in the derby based on his breeding and running style. I thought Gayego had run his best route already at 9 furlongs.

I wonder if something did go wrong with Colonel John. He ran a nice mile and then a dreadful final two furlongs. Didn't seem like the type that wasn't going to like the distance.

[JJP]

I might be in the minority on this but I take the 109 for Big Brown as being correct. My initial thinking was a 110 for him. With a lightly raced 3YO, big jump ups are very possible. The Derby winner almost always "moves forward" to a new top. Somebody earlier said Big Brown was a "104-106" type horse. With 3 career races, how could anyone pidgeonhole him like that. And forget about the ground loss. Yes he was wide on both turns but that's T-Graph and Ragozin territory. Beyer figures NEVER bring ground loss into the equation.

I brought up the fact Harlem Rocker's past perfs are very similar to Bernardini but I guarantee you he will not do what Bernardini did at Pimlico. Lets see how Harlem Rocker handles graded stakes company against more than 3 overmatched rivals.