2008 Kentucky Derby predictions

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Brian, can I ask you what it is that you like about Recapturetheglory? Just curious as that is one that I haven't seen many people pick.

He's a stab, I admit it. And the day after the Illinois Derby, I was first in line to trash him to anyone who would listen. But after watching the day's races again, it was clear to me that being on the lead and inside was the place to be, but I don't think it was anything near the advantage that people are making it out to be. Did he benefit from the track profile? Of course. But the fact remains that he ticked off remarkably consistent quarter miles throughout the race, and he wasn't going to get caught if they went around ten more times, slight inside bias or not.

I don't think he's War Emblem, but I'm willing to rate his Illinois Derby as much closer to that guy's performance than Cowtown Cat's last year.

If he were going to head to post at 12-1, I'd want nothing to do with him based on the setup of the race. But he's going to be a solid price, and since I'm of the school of thought that the track didn't help him along as much as some others think -- then he's coming into this race off what is arguably the second or third fastest race run by any Derby runner this year depending on who you ask.

Call me crazy.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

He's a stab, I admit it. And the day after the Illinois Derby, I was first in line to trash him to anyone who would listen. But after watching the day's races again, it was clear to me that being on the lead and inside was the place to be, but I don't think it was anything near the advantage that people are making it out to be. Did he benefit from the track profile? Of course. But the fact remains that he ticked off remarkably consistent quarter miles throughout the race, and he wasn't going to get caught if they went around ten more times, slight inside bias or not.

I don't think he's War Emblem, but I'm willing to rate his Illinois Derby as much closer to that guy's performance than Cowtown Cat's last year.

If he were going to head to post at 12-1, I'd want nothing to do with him based on the setup of the race. But he's going to be a solid price, and since I'm of the school of thought that the track didn't help him along as much as some others think -- then he's coming into this race off what is arguably the second or third fastest race run by any Derby runner this year depending on who you ask.

Call me crazy.

My boss is putting money on him to win ... he knows someone who knows the connections or something like that. Hope you cash on him ... I can't use him, but if anyone will be right about him, it will be you. When you take a stab, it seems to work out for you! I should learn my lesson and not doubt.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

My boss is putting money on him to win ... he knows someone who knows the connections or something like that. Hope you cash on him ... I can't use him, but if anyone will be right about him, it will be you. When you take a stab, it seems to work out for you! I should learn my lesson and not doubt.

I know I'm running about a 90% chance that he finishes dead last, but I see him as an all or nothing type on Saturday and I'm not convinced that it's going to be nothing. At his price, he won't be the worst crazy gamble on the board given the performance he turned in last time.

With that said, if he somehow wins this thing, none of my tickets will cash. I can't use him on top, but I'll use him in spots 3 & 4 definitely.

And now I'm off to bed, since opening day at Arlington is tomorrow!

[sumitas]

in no order, BBJ, CJ, SA. i'll box an ex and tri with these 3. i'll play some on BBJ to show.

[magic_idol]

1) Big Brown
2) colonel john
3) Eight Belles
4) pyro

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[3kings]

Colonel John
Pyro
Dennis of Cork
Monba
Z Fortune

[2MinsToPost]

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Eight Belles, Z Fortune, Colonel John, Monba and Gayego

My Exacta and Tri Boxes

Don't overlook Monba 11/24/07 race at Churchill from the 11 post.

Don't overlook Gayego in the Ark Derby.

Juicy odds on both.