Kentucky Oaks/Derby Analysis & Selections

[hockey2315]

Oaks Analysis:

With Champion Juvenile Filly Indian Blessing on the DL and stablemate Eight Belles going in the Derby, #8 PROUD SPELL looms a huge threat to crush these if she can bounce back from her 3rd place finish in the G1 Ashland on poly (she will). Florida Oaks winner #3 AWESOME CHIC looked like a new horse in her first two-turn race, drawing off from Elusive Lady and well regarded My Baby Baby. By Awesome Again out of an A.P. Indy mare, she should continue improving with more ground. G1 Winner #1 Golden Doc A is a solid closer who should get up for a piece.

1. Proud Spell 2. Awesome Chic 3. Golden Doc A

Derby Analysis:

#16 DENIS OF CORK has been outworking all of his rivals this week at Churchill Downs and broke his maiden here impressively. Should sit a nice trip and run them all down in the stretch. #9 PYRO was on top of most Derby lists all season until he threw in a clunker on the polytrack at Keeneland and Big Brown and Colonel John stepped up with impressive performances to steal the spotlight. Draw a line through his non-effort in the Bluegrass and be thankful for the better price. #1 COOL COAL MAN has been flying under the radar despite a very nice Fountain of Youth win at Gulfstream. He's 2-for-2 on dirt at 9F this year, should have no problem with the added distance, has a win at Churchill, and has speed from the rail. At upwards of 30-1, he's a must use.

1. Denis of Cork 2. Pyro 3. Cool Coal Man

$100 Oaks/Derby Double Play:

$20 DD 8 w/ 9,16 = $40
$10 DD 8 w/ 1 = $10
$10 DD 1,3 w/ 9,16 = $40
$5 DD 1,3 w/ 1 = $10

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Oaks Analysis:

With Champion Juvenile Filly Indian Blessing on the DL and stablemate Eight Belles going in the Derby, #8 PROUD SPELL looms a huge threat to crush these if she can bounce back from her 3rd place finish in the G1 Ashland on poly (she will). Florida Oaks winner #3 AWESOME CHIC looked like a new horse in her first two-turn race, drawing off from Elusive Lady and well regarded My Baby Baby. By Awesome Again out of an A.P. Indy mare, she should continue improving with more ground. G1 Winner #1 Golden Doc A is a solid closer who should get up for a piece.

1. Proud Spell 2. Awesome Chic 3. Golden Doc A

Derby Analysis:

#16 DENIS OF CORK has been outworking all of his rivals this week at Churchill Downs and broke his maiden here impressively. Should sit a nice trip and run them all down in the stretch. #9 PYRO was on top of most Derby lists all season until he threw in a clunker on the polytrack at Keeneland and Big Brown and Colonel John stepped up with impressive performances to steal the spotlight. Draw a line through his non-effort in the Bluegrass and be thankful for the better price. #1 COOL COAL MAN has been flying under the radar despite a very nice Fountain of Youth win at Gulfstream. He's 2-for-2 on dirt at 9F this year, should have no problem with the added distance, has a win at Churchill, and has speed from the rail. At upwards of 30-1, he's a must use.

1. Denis of Cork 2. Pyro 3. Cool Coal Man

$100 Oaks/Derby Double Play:

$20 DD 8 w/ 9,16 = $40
$10 DD 8 w/ 1 = $10
$10 DD 1,3 w/ 9,16 = $40
$5 DD 1,3 w/ 1 = $10

Dude nothing corney about this, it actually looks professional, except Cork has no shot.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by kgar311

Dude nothing corney about this, it actually looks professional, except Coal Man has no shot.

FTFY

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

FTFY

Nice work. Coal Man's two best wins (FOY and Churchill allowance) were with perfect trips.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

Nice work. Coal Man's two best wins (FOY and Churchill allowance) were with perfect trips.

Which he'll get on Saturday on the rail behind the compromised speed . . .

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Which he'll get on Saturday on the rail behind the compromised speed . . .

and he still won't be good enough, so it's a moot point all day long.

[kgar311]

My Derby analysis:

#9 PYRO absolutely hated the poly going in Bluegrass besides that has the best kick and most consistant during spring campaign, working excellent. #6 Z FORTUNE will be forwardly place and will save ground on both turns, will collar Big Brown mid stretch only to be passed by pyro at the wire. #20 BIG BROWN once he finally strikes the lead after a 22,45 half he will have put the pretenders away but will have paid the price and will be leg weary the final 1/8 but has enough talent to hold off the rest. #10 COLONEL JOHN will make a huge move swing 6-7 wide into the stretch but will have found trouble getting to that point flattens out the final 1/8. #13 BOB BLACK JACK will be right inside of John in the stretch but not enough to catch top four.

1. Pyro 2. Z Fortune 3. Big Brown 4. Colonel John 5. Bob Black Jack

[Clip-Clop]

Nice oaks field screams lets get paid$$$$

Golden Doc A with coverage of Proud Spell and Bsharp

and in a potential all Kent Double

A must is Big Brown(just because last years O/D Double was soooo easy and still paid like $64)
but who will really win... Monba or Pyro completing a huge payday with GDA in the Oaks. Now go get paid everyone!! I am going to Vegas. see ya!

[Lava]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Nice oaks field screams lets get paid$$$$

Golden Doc A with coverage of Proud Spell and Bsharp

and in a potential all Kent Double

A must is Big Brown(just because last years O/D Double was soooo easy and still paid like $64)
but who will really win... Monba or Pyro completing a huge payday with GDA in the Oaks. Now go get paid everyone!! I am going to Vegas. see ya!

I like BSharp alot

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by kgar311

My Derby analysis:

#9 PYRO absolutely hated the poly going in Bluegrass besides that has the best kick and most consistant during spring campaign, working excellent. #6 Z FORTUNE will be forwardly place and will save ground on both turns, will collar Big Brown mid stretch only to be passed by pyro at the wire. #20 BIG BROWN once he finally strikes the lead after a 22,45 half he will have put the pretenders away but will have paid the price and will be leg weary the final 1/8 but has enough talent to hold off the rest. #10 COLONEL JOHN will make a huge move swing 6-7 wide into the stretch but will have found trouble getting to that point flattens out the final 1/8. #13 BOB BLACK JACK will be right inside of John in the stretch but not enough to catch top four.

1. Pyro 2. Z Fortune 3. Big Brown 4. Colonel John 5. Bob Black Jack

Save yourself a bunch of greif and toss Z Fortune.

[herkhorse]

Bogey, good luck this weekend!

My Derby pics aren't quite ready for prime time, though I'm starting to like your exacta box of Pyro and D of C

As far as the Oaks goes, I'm looking for a price so my pics are 1) Golden Doc and 9) A to the Croft, despite her last looking so bad.

[Bogey]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Bogey, good luck this weekend!

My Derby pics aren't quite ready for prime time, though I'm starting to like your exacta box of Pyro and D of C

As far as the Oaks goes, I'm looking for a price so my pics are 1) Golden Doc and 9) A to the Croft, despite her last looking so bad.

Thanks Herk, Good luck to you as well.