DERBY WORKS (4/27): Col. John (:57.4), Fillies (:58+) in Hot Drills

[philcski]

Big Truck with a nice spin this morning, 5F in 59.40.

His chances went from 0.1% to 0.2%.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Big Truck with a nice spin this morning, 5F in 59.40.

His chances went from 0.1% to 0.2%.

How exactly did this increase the chances of the current favorite for the Mike Lee?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

How exactly did this increase the chances of the current favorite for the Mike Lee?

You actually think he's the favorite for the Mike Lee? I figured I'd get 5-1 on him in that race

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

All kidding aside, the NY bred 3 year olds look especially strong this year. Big Truck, Z Fortune, Giant Moon and Icabad Crane just to name a few. The Empire Classic could be some race this year.

Agreed- all kidding aside, I actually like Big Truck. Just not for the Derby...

Z Fortune does, however, rate a big shot to hit the board IMO. I don't know if he's actually good enough to win but a mile and a quarter will fit him well, his running style fits well to get a good trip, and his speed figures are certainly competitive.

[sumitas]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

All kidding aside, the NY bred 3 year olds look especially strong this year. Big Truck, Z Fortune, Giant Moon and Icabad Crane just to name a few. The Empire Classic could be some race this year.

Cape of Storms will be there too.

[sumitas]

Indeed. We'll see who's entered in the Mike Lee. I don't think the Big Apple Triple has ever been won. $250,000 bonus. These races are in addition to the $250,000 Empire Classic of course.
http://www.nybreds.com/frames/FS_triple.html

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree that this is a strong group of NY Breds.

Maybe someone can explain to me logically, after the insanity of the Derby subsides, what exactly is so compelling about Z Fortune. If a straw falls in his path he wilts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree that this is a strong group of NY Breds.

Maybe someone can explain to me logically, after the insanity of the Derby subsides, what exactly is so compelling about Z Fortune. If a straw falls in his path he wilts.

Other than his Rebel, which admittedly was a terrible effort at 70 cents on the dollar, he really hasn't run a bad race. He's stepped forward in each effort otherwise (technically the Risen Star was a step back speedwise but I think we can attribute the figure to the glacial pace since every runner out of the race ran a higher # in their next start), and his Arkansas Derby was legitimately good- if he doesn't get such a wide trip there, he wins. His running style seems to fit my projected pace scenario, as well. He certainly isn't a spectacular talent, but he grinds out decent race after decent race and if you're looking for horses who can hit the board at 20-1 or higher I think he's the right one.

[blackthroatedwind]

I don't get what was good about his Arkansas Derby, but maybe I'm making the mistake of thinking it will take a good horse to be competitive in this year's Derby, as there appears to ultimately be a dearth of those.

To me, he benefited from a fast pace, had a good trip ( I don't particularly get worked up about wides ), and couldn't get by a distance challenged mediocrity who was involved in a solid pace. I guess I should wait for the pps on Wednesday but I hope there are better alternatives than him. I haven't liked a race he has run save perhaps his maiden win.

[pgiaco]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It'd be nice for the connections, but he's going to have to improve an awful lot IMO to contend with the four I mentioned.

Let's see Big Truck and Z Fortune run in the Derby, Icabad Crane in the Preakness, if they need to be freshened, the phase of the moon is right, I go to church.......Cape could hit the board.