Any respect for Pyro now?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Colonel John enjoyed what Santa Anita has been for quite a few weeks - a closers paradise. Yesterday, 5 synthetic races, zero wire jobs, no one sat second and just one horse came from third to win. It's been like this for weeks.

Bob's Black Jack ran a huge race, and if he hits the Derby road, he and Colonel John will be making their first starts on dirt in the race.

The impact of a synthetic/dirt comparison is seen right with Coast Guard, who is solid on synthetic, but was drubbed in his lone dirt start (Real Derby), only to return yesterday to run a game 3rd in the SA Derby.

If I had time, i could absolutely RIP this post apart. You are out of your mind thinking Colonel John trip was because of a closers paradise. Those horses up front went FAST as hell, them holding that LONG shows you that track was somewhat fair, three weeks ago, they wouldn't have hit the board. You are right Bob's Blackjack running a truly amazing, gut wrenching race, but the trip at Santa Anita has been 4w4w and closing mid track, Colonel John was 1w1w and closed in the middle of the track. And he was pretty close to this pace, only about 3-4 lengths back, it wasn't like he was 10 lengths back.

And using Coast Guard for example is ridiculous. I can give you TWO just from yesterday before doing any research. Tiago and Heatseeker.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Scav

If I had time, i could absolutely RIP this post apart. You are out of your mind thinking Colonel John trip was because of a closers paradise. Those horses up front went FAST as hell, them holding that LONG shows you that track was somewhat fair, three weeks ago, they wouldn't have hit the board. You are right Bob's Blackjack running a truly amazing, gut wrenching race, but the trip at Santa Anita has been 4w4w and closing mid track, Colonel John was 1w1w and closed in the middle of the track. And he was pretty close to this pace, only about 3-4 lengths back, it wasn't like he was 10 lengths back.

And using Coast Guard for example is ridiculous. I can give you TWO just from yesterday before doing any research. Tiago and Heatseeker.

Whoa... lighten-up, this is just a message board with casual conversation. This is what I mean about these boards, you put people behind a keyboard, and their speak becomes so confrontational rather than discussion-like.

I was merely adding to the conversation that Santa Anita has been a closers paradise this spring. Want the data? PM me... I'll show you a real nifty site that will prove it.

More on yesterday:

In Race 2, Power Blitz came from 12th to win by 1 3/4 lengths at 20-1. The fractions were a scorching 23 2/5, 48 1/5...ouch. The favorite sat third and backed-up to 9th. The top three were 12th, 6th and 9th at the pace call.

In Race 4, Greg's Gold came from 5th to win the co-feature, although the splits were quite fast.

In Race 8, 3-1 Tangled Tango sat third, and is the only horse from the top half of the field to win yesterday.

In Race 10, All Man was 7th at the pace call and went on to by a nose at 6-1. He beat-out 5-1 Paul's Hope who was 4th at the quarter, and 6th at the half.

As for Tiago, well, he doesn't count, because he was already proven on dirt. But as for Heatseeker, I give you Hystericalady. We can keep going back and forth on horses and their affinity for surfaces, but that would require another thread.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Whoa... lighten-up, this is just a message board with casual conversation. This is what I mean about these boards, you put people behind a keyboard, and their speak becomes so confrontational rather than discussion-like.

I was merely adding to the conversation that Santa Anita has been a closers paradise this spring. Want the data? PM me... I'll show you a real nifty site that will prove it.

More on yesterday:

In Race 2, Power Blitz came from 12th to win by 1 3/4 lengths at 20-1. The fractions were a scorching 23 2/5, 48 1/5...ouch. The favorite sat third and backed-up to 9th. The top three were 12th, 6th and 9th at the pace call.

In Race 4, Greg's Gold came from 5th to win the co-feature, although the splits were quite fast.

In Race 8, 3-1 Tangled Tango sat third, and is the only horse from the top half of the field to win yesterday.

In Race 10, All Man was 7th at the pace call and went on to by a nose at 6-1. He beat-out 5-1 Paul's Hope who was 4th at the quarter, and 6th at the half.

As for Tiago, well, he doesn't count, because he was already proven on dirt. But as for Heatseeker, I give you Hystericalady. We can keep going back and forth on horses and their affinity for surfaces, but that would require another thread.

I know the DATA, I have watched every single race their this spring.

What about Hystericalady, she is a grade 2 placed horse on the synethic at 4 years old, and a grade 2 winner on the synthetic at 3 years old, assuming Hollywood had it in 2006, which I think they did.

While the jocks finally figured out about 14 days ago that you couldn't win on the lead, the track has played more fair in recent days.

Synthetics are a slower track, this I don't argue with, and you have to have fitness to actually do well over them, a perfect description to that is how Art Sherman has gone from a 25% winning trainer to barely about 5% this year, if that.

Oh, and easy with the comments in regards to internet toughness, I never confront on the hilarious internet, but ridiculous comments in regards to a Colonel John having a closing trip, when he was never farther then 4-5 lengths back, and he was only steadying because he was following Yankee Bravo up the rail. Horse got an above average trip yesterday and took advantage of it, and will get the same trip in the Derby, because of his style.

[Travis Stone]

Since March 20 Santa Anita averages about 15% wire jobs. By comparison, Gulfstream is 25%, Hawthorne is 29%, Oaklawn is 29%, Tampa Bay 23%...(The major qualifier in these stats is that short priced horse winners are not counted in the calculations.)

71 races over the cushion track, just 11 wire winners, 5 horses came from second to win from those 71 and 31 (43%) of the winners came from the top half of the field. On just one card was there more more than 1 wire job.

Regardless of lengths, those stats are quite compelling.

Furthermore, anytime a horse does contest the pace or have a say in how the early portions of the race are run, he is closing on that pace. 20 lengths or five lengths... doesn't matter. Brownie Points was no more than 5 lengths off the pace in the Apple Blossom yesterday, but she was still a closer in the way the race was run.

I'm not saying Colonel John had a tough trip, or a perfect trip, but that he was another in a long line of horses to win at Santa Anita in the recent weeks from off the pace.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Since March 20 Santa Anita averages about 15% wire jobs. By comparison, Gulfstream is 25%, Hawthorne is 29%, Oaklawn is 29%, Tampa Bay 23%...(The major qualifier in these stats is that short priced horse winners are not counted in the calculations.)

71 races over the cushion track, just 11 wire winners, 5 horses came from second to win from those 71 and 31 (43%) of the winners came from the top half of the field. On just one card was there more more than 1 wire job.

Regardless of lengths, those stats are quite compelling.

Furthermore, anytime a horse does contest the pace or have a say in how the early portions of the race are run, he is closing on that pace. 20 lengths or five lengths... doesn't matter. Brownie Points was no more than 5 lengths off the pace in the Apple Blossom yesterday, but she was still a closer in the way the race was run.

I'm not saying Colonel John had a tough trip, or a perfect trip, but that he was another in a long line of horses to win at Santa Anita in the recent weeks from off the pace.

IM not trying to argue just present another way to look at the race. Kinda like an owner telling a jock he wants the horse running 2nd or 3rd on the nackstretch with no regarde as to the time. Im no expert but in my opinion is that SA has been a more than fair track.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by jpops757

SA has been a more than fair track.

What is fair though? I'm not saying SA is unfair, I'm just saying it's been tilted a bit towards closers, not that it's necessarily good or bad.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What is fair though? I'm not saying SA is unfair, I'm just saying it's been tilted a bit towards closers, not that it's necessarily good or bad.

More often than not the best horse with the best trip wins. Less wins by horses that win with horses loose on the lead and fewer wins as a result of a race falling apart,

[Thunder Gulch]

The Colonel John synthetic to dirt switch becomes one of the biggest questions in handicapping this year's Derby. At least they are sending him to Churchill instead of Keenland, so at least we can watch him work on dirt. I was there when Tiznow won the Classic at Churchill, so I don't see why CJ can't handle that surface.

I still like Pyro because of his explosiveness when asked, and his back class tells me he may not have run his best yet this spring.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The Colonel John synthetic to dirt switch becomes one of the biggest questions in handicapping this year's Derby. At least they are sending him to Churchill instead of Keenland, so at least we can watch him work on dirt. I was there when Tiznow won the Classic at Churchill, so I don't see why CJ can't handle that surface.

I still like Pyro because of his explosiveness when asked, and his back class tells me he may not have run his best yet this spring.

it isn't a question, colonel John will be fine, he is bred to even be better on the dirt then the synthetic/turf

Also, to add a comment about Recapturetheglory, the horse has zero shot to make the top three in the Derby, and I would be surprised if he has a shot to reach the top 10.

ET Baird in this Derby is a godsend for me because he is f'n going to the lead, and will go 22 to get it, bad news for horses like Mr. Brown, War Pass, Bob's Blackjack.....