3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[hailrazer]

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

That's TERRIBLE value

[Scurlogue Champ]

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

with today's technology, it would be so simple to adjust the totes if necessary. They can use that as an excuse, but it is not reality

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Scurlogue Champ

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...

it does, it may be the stupidest pool alive. in the first two, none of the above is usually the fave .if your a day to day person in this game. taking anything less than 30-1 in these things is dumb. as for the derby i've been burned enough times now to know better . betting horses like big brown or war pass at low odds is about the worse bet one can make! you got to take a shot in this race or just watch. if you don't go out on a limb you are wasting your time.

[hockey2315]

Like I keep saying - CCM is the value in this pool. These odds are absurd.

Horses like Adriano (spaz/turf horse), Big Truck (slow), Court Vision (slow), El Gato Malo(poly horse/distance ?s), TOMCITO (needs more than 10F to win), Visionaire(distance limitations), and Z Fortune (awful last race) are ahead of him despite the fact that he's 2-for-2 this year (both at 9F), has faster beyers than almost all of them, has a win at CD, has the perfect stalking style for the derby, has top connections, is bred to route, etc...

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Like I keep saying - CCM is the value in this pool. These odds are absurd.

I took him in pool 2 and if these odds hold, will play him again!

Also, notice Zito's training him at CD.... to get him used to the surface.

[Kasept]

1 Adriano H. Motion 20 37
2 Atoned Todd Pletcher 30 52
3 Big Brown Richard Dutrow, Jr. 3 3
4 Big Truck Barclay Tagg 20 31
5 Blackberry Road David Carroll 50 48
6 Bob Black Jack James Kasparoff 30 47
7 Colonel John Eoin Harty 12 7
8 Cool Coal Man Nicholas Zito 15 19
9 Court Vision William Mott 20 21
10 Denis of Cork David Carroll 15 24
11 El Gato Malo Craig Dollase 12 18
12 Gayego Paulo Lobo 30 65
13 Liberty Bull Thomas Amoss 50 75
14 My Pal Charlie Albert Stall, Jr. 50 71
15 Pyro Steven Asmussen 4 5
16 Salute the Sarge Eric Guillot 50 91
17 Smooth Air Bennie Stutts, Jr. 50 28
18 Tale of Ekati Barclay Tagg 30 19
19 Tomcito Dante Zanelli, Jr. 30 31
20 Visionaire Michael Matz 20 19
21 War Pass Nicholas Zito 6 13
22 Yankee Bravo Patrick Gallagher 30 58
23 Z Fortune Steven Asmussen 50 53
24 All Other Three YO 15 13

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Last year, "all others" in Pool 3 closed at 25.5-1, but the average close since 2000 is 14-1.

Here are PP's for the 23 individual Pool 3 entries:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/..._123_pool3.pdf

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Give me some Court Vision, currently 30-1 (9am Friday). Ok, his final number will depend on what he does tomorrow, but I think he's the best suited of the "second tier" horses.

I'll give you 30-1 right now without waiting to see what he does tomorrow.

[Scav]

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Scav

I know this sounds funny, but their could be value on Pyro in this pool, assuming it closes on Sunday. If you were to get 6/1 on Pyro in this pool, because of the legion of Big Brown followers, and Pyro goes and wins the BG easily, he will be the 3/1 favorite in the Derby, and the most likely winner. Something to consider.

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

What Pyro does in the Blue Grass will be about as relevant to my Derby handicapping as how he looked as a yearling and what his dosage index is. That race is a total toss. Look for another turf horse like Cowboy Cal to win it and possibly get you better than 6/1 on Pyro on Derby Day.

If that is the case then it is my only play of the weekend, this horse is going to win the Derby this year, so I guess I wouldn't mind a real bad performance on the tires.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by Kasept

As an FYI... of the Jones' fillies, from what I hear, Proud Spell is far more likely to try Derby than Eight Belles..

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan

Eight Belles will run in the Fantasy at Oaklawn, rather than the Arkansas Derby.

O/F..

Got ya... I was refering to Kentucky with Proud Spell (v. Eight Belles)...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Why would you do that when there is maybe a 25% chance that Eight Belles goes to the Derby, and then even when she gets there, you'd get WAY better odds on derby day...probably in the 30-1 range at least.

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

It's not that simple. You would probably get a few other Derby runners with the "All others" bet. So you can't compare it directly to waiting for Eight Belles in the Derby.

--Dunbar

Ya but who else are you getting that has any shot?