Why Does Beyer Get Dissed?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

I don't diss him, I have read all of his books and I respect him, sometimes his numbers are legit, sometimes not, there's room for interpretation, so they are not always going to be correct.

Agree.

One thing you have to remember with Beyers and he has a chapter in his book on it, How was the Figure Earned, that's more important than just running a big figure in my opinion. Was it a loose on the lead or did he battle through fast fractions or have a wide trip. I prefer Sheets and will defer to them in most cases, but they are $40 for a day...

This is an important point that is often missed. The Beyer fig is supposed to simply reflect how fast the race was run. It is NOT supposed to contain any other info about trip, bias, weight, etc. I'd rather supply those adjustments myself than rely on someone else to do it. However...

As you and oracle point out, the "room for interpretation" in Beyer's figs can lead to error. The offered explanation from oracle's Summit of Speed example is pretty lame, unless the track was obviously drying out or getting sloppy. There have been some pretty big "adjustments" in some figs this year. The initial BSF awarded to a horse was changed substantially. This has happened with "big" horses like Bob and John. One wonders how many "errors" are not corrected when the horse and race are not so thoroughly dissected as Bob and John in a Ky Derby prep.

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Agree.



This is an important point that is often missed. The Beyer fig is supposed to simply reflect how fast the race was run. It is NOT supposed to contain any other info about trip, bias, weight, etc. I'd rather supply those adjustments myself than rely on someone else to do it. However...

As you and oracle point out, the "room for interpretation" in Beyer's figs can lead to error. The offered explanation from oracle's Summit of Speed example is pretty lame, unless the track was obviously drying out or getting sloppy. There have been some pretty big "adjustments" in some figs this year. The initial BSF awarded to a horse was changed substantially. This has happened with "big" horses like Bob and John. One wonders how many "errors" are not corrected when the horse and race are not so thoroughly dissected as Bob and John in a Ky Derby prep.

--Dunbar

Well said, Dunbar. I am much like you in that I would rather the figures be objective instead of subjective. Let handicappers interpret how the figure was earned instead of adjusting the numbers to "fit" how fast the race was run. While I believe projection methods yield sharper variants, I still like to do some of the work myself. This has been my problem with grasping Thorograph all along. They may or may not have better figures, but it is very difficult for recreational players to interpret their figures because their are so many subjective factors. They strive to deliver the most accurate figures with wind speed adjustments, private clockers, and lengths lost, but you can't put a number on a trip.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Well said, Dunbar. I am much like you in that I would rather the figures be objective instead of subjective. Let handicappers interpret how the figure was earned instead of adjusting the numbers to "fit" how fast the race was run. While I believe projection methods yield sharper variants, I still like to do some of the work myself. This has been my problem with grasping Thorograph all along. They may or may not have better figures, but it is very difficult for recreational players to interpret their figures because their are so many subjective factors. They strive to deliver the most accurate figures with wind speed adjustments, private clockers, and lengths lost, but you can't put a number on a trip.

Actually, I think you CAN put a number on a trip. And there's a good chance that some of the sheet guys are better at it than I am, if we both sat down to do the same race. What I worry about is how much attention they can possibly put into each horse in each race.

When I am betting, I am only going to closely look at a few races a day. But the sheet guys have to come up with data on pretty much every horse running every day across the country. I assume that there is a lot of room for error in trying to amass so much information on a daily basis.

Beyer does every horse, too, but his process is WAY simpler since he is NOT trying to factor in all the variables that constitute a trip.

--Dunbar

[Thunder Gulch]

You can make an educated guess at putting a number on a trip, but not an accurate one. The "path's wide" approach has its shortcomings. It doesn't account for biases and the fact that many horses run better off the rail. Plus, the big downside for me is that you upgrade a horse who is coming off the pace and forced to take the wide trip to reach contention. These types will always be going wider than early speed that avoids going wide, and we all know early speed rules dirt racing.

Now the sheet guys are smart, really smart, but I think they oversell the value of the "number" when the real value of their work is their methodology of presenting it in sheet fashion and finding patterns for the horses and trainers. I've heard a lot of pro's talk about that being the case along with the fact that Sheet figures aren't bet as much as Beyers at many venues, so the prices are a bit better.

I dont really use BSF to handicap at all. I find them useless in my method when I do handicap. My main tool is race replays. I use replays of races to see what the heck happened in the race. Did the horse get squeezed, did he get caught in a speed duel, did he make a move and flatten out etc etc. I then take the race replay and couple that with the times the horse has been running, the competition, does the horse fit etc etc. On Saturday there were two total underlays. 1) Planets Aligned in the 1st at Saratoga. The horse went off at 13-1 and the sheets and beyers indicated that he couldnt win. But the horse is in great form and he fit with the group he was racing with. Of course I had him to win. 2) Fast Act in the 4th at Monmouth. He had a horrible trip in his 1st start. He went off at 29-1 and no way should he gone off at that price. He was a 2nd time starter on turf out of Theatrical. He loved the distance and he was going to run into a speed duel. Things like this the sheets and beyers dont capture. IMO so many things come together to help you make your selection.

[Thunder Gulch]

Don't take this the wrong way Euro, but if you look at times instead of BSF or another credible figure, you're really missing out. Times and BSF are printed on the same line in the form, so help me understand why?

[TheSpyder]

I use brisnet and find them very useful to isolate pace, especially at the end of the race but keep hearing about rags or raglan sheets. I'd like to check them out...where do I find them on the net?

As for BSF they are subjectively objective which is the definition of about any horseplayer I know.....until the race is over.

Spyder from SC