Betting ????

[Travis Stone]

One of my favorite wagers is what is called a "reverse pyramid." I credit my friend for sharing this with me, although it's not his original idea, we've developed it into a nifty way to play the races.

The majority of handicappers build their wagers in a pyramid or triangular fashion:

    1
   2-3
2-3-4-5-6

The problem with this is that the majority of players are doing it! That's why, when a well-backed horse wins the race, most payoffs are somewhat low.

If you flip the logic around, you can open up a whirlwind of options...

Let's say you find a longshot you like. Well, he's a longshot, and he's more likely to run second than he is to win and is more likely to run third than he is second. At the same time, you've narrowed down the race to four horses - your longshot and three others.

At this point, take the pyramid, and flip it upside down with a few adjustments:

  2-3-4
2-3-4-5-6
    1

For just $12, you are covering a nice trifecta. The top three horses (2-3-4) are likely to have a shorter priced horse but a few mid-rangers as well. The center group has those three plus a couple of other nice prices. And finally, you're longshot in third.

You can then rotate the 1 into second, drop the second group down and you another great trifecta wager. For just $24, you have two very live trifecta wagers. Finally, I would take $6 and bet the 1 to win, just in case he runs awesome.

For $30, that's not too shabby of coverage.

The winning possibilities are exciting... say the 4 horse is 8-1 and he wins, but by sheer logic, one of your mid-priced horses is 8-1, and your longshot is 20-1... if it comes in 8-1 / 8-1 / 20-1, that's a huge payday.

I play this way 80% of the time. Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

Furthermore, as you do this, you begin to realize how some horses are "second tier" horses only, or how some horses are likely winners, and they belong in the top group.

It can get expensive, but if you can handicap/narrow down well, it's affordable.

You could go 4 x 10 x 1 for just $36... or 6 x 6 x 1 for $30 etc.

My friend will often use longshot early speed horses who might get an easy early lead, but wilt late to second or third, as his reverse pyramid horse. I, however, use more suck-up second and third place horses. Either way works.

Anyway, sorry to be long winded, but I really like this style of wagering.

[Travis Stone]

I'll also add that playing this way works best, in my opinion, at weaker tracks where the betting is often polarized and the pools thin. Your 20-1 shot will not be on as many tri tickets at a small track as it will a large one, and therefore, the payoff is much larger.

I ran a analysis on my wagering last year and my most profitable tracks: Indiana Downs, Mountaineer, Finger Lakes and Emerald. Kinda interesting.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

This was one of the races I talked about on Steve's radio show last Friday.

At the very end, Steve actually asked me for my "most likely winner" in the race as we were wrapping all 3 races up - and instead of answering his question, I ignored it and decided to tell how I felt was the right way to bet the race...and it was a good thing because the exacta paid $173.60 and the betting play I gave out paid almost 30/1.

Basically, King's Silver Son was just the 7th best horse on paper - he had a career lifetime top Beyer of just 80 and no buried form. However, he was a true hanging closer who was going to get the setup of a lifetime with Sacred Journey in the race. And, with He's Eze adding blinkers the stalker/mid-pack types get no breather.

I make the case that Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune are the likely winners of the race - but hopeless hanging longshot King's Silver Son will get a once-in-a-lifetime trip/setup.

As I said, there was only one way the race could be bet that I saw it - and that was by taking King's Silver Son and keying him 2nd in the exacta with the two likely winners (Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune) - and 3rd in the Tri behind those two.

A $2 exacta SS and ZF over KSS costs $4. A $1 tri SS and ZF over SS and ZF over KSS costs $2.

It's $6 per unit - and the exacta paid $173.60 - basically the same thing as hitting a 28/1 shot.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This was one of the races I talked about on Steve's radio show last Friday.

At the very end, Steve actually asked me for my "most likely winner" in the race as we were wrapping all 3 races up - and instead of answering his question, I ignored it and decided to tell how I felt was the right way to bet the race...and it was a good thing because the exacta paid $173.60 and the betting play I gave out paid almost 30/1.

Basically, King's Silver Son was just the 7th best horse on paper - he had a career lifetime top Beyer of just 80 and no buried form. However, he was a true hanging closer who was going to get the setup of a lifetime with Sacred Journey in the race. And, with He's Eze adding blinkers the stalker/mid-pack types get no breather.

I make the case that Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune are the likely winners of the race - but hopeless hanging longshot King's Silver Son will get a once-in-a-lifetime trip/setup.

As I said, there was only one way the race could be bet that I saw it - and that was by taking King's Silver Son and keying him 2nd in the exacta with the two likely winners (Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune) - and 3rd in the Tri behind those two.

A $2 exacta SS and ZF over KSS costs $4. A $1 tri SS and ZF over SS and ZF over KSS costs $2.

It's $6 per unit - and the exacta paid $173.60 - basically the same thing as hitting a 28/1 shot.

This falls in line with exactly how I like to play, especially when I'm handicapping more on-the-fly. Who figures to get a good setup? Who figures to outrun their odds? Win? Not likely. But hit the board? You bet. It's a lot of fun.

[hockey2315]

It's also a great way to play the derby. . .

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This was one of the races I talked about on Steve's radio show last Friday.

At the very end, Steve actually asked me for my "most likely winner" in the race as we were wrapping all 3 races up - and instead of answering his question, I ignored it and decided to tell how I felt was the right way to bet the race...and it was a good thing because the exacta paid $173.60 and the betting play I gave out paid almost 30/1.

Basically, King's Silver Son was just the 7th best horse on paper - he had a career lifetime top Beyer of just 80 and no buried form. However, he was a true hanging closer who was going to get the setup of a lifetime with Sacred Journey in the race. And, with He's Eze adding blinkers the stalker/mid-pack types get no breather.

I make the case that Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune are the likely winners of the race - but hopeless hanging longshot King's Silver Son will get a once-in-a-lifetime trip/setup.

As I said, there was only one way the race could be bet that I saw it - and that was by taking King's Silver Son and keying him 2nd in the exacta with the two likely winners (Sierra Sunset and Z Fortune) - and 3rd in the Tri behind those two.

A $2 exacta SS and ZF over KSS costs $4. A $1 tri SS and ZF over SS and ZF over KSS costs $2.

It's $6 per unit - and the exacta paid $173.60 - basically the same thing as hitting a 28/1 shot.

Drugs....I did the same thing in the Hillsborough on Sat. I loved Motions Lady Digby coming in 3rd off the layoff. I played a $10 exacta with her keyed underneath DOA and Lears, hoping that one of them would not take to the soft going. I was very happy with the $47.40 payout for $2. I think the will pays for the DOA/LP exacta combo was $4 and $7 respectively.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by GPK

Drugs....I did the same thing in the Hillsborough on Sat. I loved Motions Lady Digby coming in 3rd off the layoff. I played a $10 exacta with her keyed underneath DOA and Lears, hoping that one of them would not take to the soft going. I was very happy with the $47.40 payout for $2. I think the will pays for the DOA/LP exacta combo was $4 and $7 respectively.

Yeah, nice job and very good read.

You did say you liked Lady Digby though - the one thing that was very rare about how I bet the Rebel - is that it's like a once in a blue moon when I will focus my entire betting strategy around a horse who's form I did not like at all.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Do you have the past performances for this race? I mentioned in the other thread that I liked KSS and thought that he was better than 7th or 8th best. I don't have the past performances, but I wanted to illustrate what I liked. I recall seeing a race -- it was probably his November CD heat -- in which he was "5W, 6W" according to the comment line. I thought that another past race seemed decent, too.

I liked him more than Z Fortune, I know that.

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/08OPrebelstakes.pdf

Keep in mind - the day he won at Fairgrounds - Eight Belles won a race 40 yards longer in almost identical time - running a Beyer 20 points faster than King's Silver Son.

That is why I'm very proud of how I read and bet the Rebel.

I basically made a little score by focusing my betting around a horse I honestly thought stunk - but was just going to get the setup and trip of a lifetime - and with his hanging style, you knew 2nd place would be a strong possibilty.

I also had rabidly negative opinions against the two other closers in the race - Anak Nakel and Golden Yank - so that enabled me to have the courage to bet the race - even though I didn't bet a whole lot.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

So true!

[booner]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

I have always been a better "win" bettor than exotic player. Finding the right horses to go underneath has always been a thorn in my side. Therefore, anytime I would find a longshot I liked, I would bet to win or play a multi-race wager, even if the other 2 or 3 races were hard to find any value. Needless to say, I was banging my head against the wall quite often.

I finally have worked hard on structuring sound exotic tickets. It's has been difficult for me to change my game as such, but I know in the long run this is the way to go when I find these types of longshots.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by booner

I have always been a better "win" bettor than exotic player. Finding the right horses to go underneath has always been a thorn in my side. Therefore, anytime I would find a longshot I liked, I would bet to win or play a multi-race wager, even if the other 2 or 3 races were hard to find any value. Needless to say, I was banging my head against the wall quite often.

I finally have worked hard on structuring sound exotic tickets. It's has been difficult for me to change my game as such, but I know in the long run this is the way to go when I find these types of longshots.

Longshots on top takes guts, but that leads you to the massive scores. One guy who plays out of Chicago is a solid handicapper, who finds longshots all the time. But where he really excels, is sticking with those convictions and hammering the horse. Not necessarily with just a win bet, but singling the horse in the P3 or P6... the true separator mentality (granted, singling an 8-1 would probably fall into this category, I'm not saying just 20-1's). Right now, I don't think I have the guts to single my longshots.

Takes guts, and skill...

[wac]

Thank you so much for answering my ? guys. I had never even thought about some of these ways to do these bets. HOpefully i can put some of these structures into motion. With the season really getting cranked up im starting to make bets study the drf and made my first bets since Nov. last week. Needless to say im rusty but hopefully will be able to get back on the bike. Something else that ive noticed is that i only cash a couple "good" tickets most seasons but those are the ones that give me the best shot at a profit at the end of the season. I WOULD LOVE TO MEET ALL YOU GUYS ON THIS BOARD SOMETIME, and learn in person what you all do. A lot of you on here really know what your doing and i appreciate the knowledge that you all share with a newbie. Thanks.

[AeWingnut]

I can't tell you how many times I screw up my exotic wagers. I used to always bet the longest part flat just so I could keep firing at them. But somewhere along the way I quit doing it. I also forget to look up at the board and watch the odds. I had a horse go off at 80-1 and win easy. Then watched as the horses I boxed him with stop running and someone I don't have get up at the wire and I have nothing but a story.

yesterday I saved $8 and it cost me $1,500+

[booner]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Longshots on top takes guts, but that leads you to the massive scores. One guy who plays out of Chicago is a solid handicapper, who finds longshots all the time. But where he really excels, is sticking with those convictions and hammering the horse. Not necessarily with just a win bet, but singling the horse in the P3 or P6... the true separator mentality (granted, singling an 8-1 would probably fall into this category, I'm not saying just 20-1's). Right now, I don't think I have the guts to single my longshots.

Takes guts, and skill...

For the longest time, betting a longshot to win was the only way I would bet them. Didn't take me too long to figure out the "all or nothing" plays I was making was not the way to go. Then I was playing them in the multi-race wagers, and had the same results 99% of the time.

I don't have the guts to single a longshot in a multi-race wager, either. In the past, I was doing it more out of inexperience (my wife called it stupidity ). In the past 9 months, I have done this once. It did pay off, but it was one of those "once in a year" horses that jumped off the page at me.

Kudos to the guy you know in Chicago. I only hope to get close to that level someday.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

One of my favorite wagers is what is called a "reverse pyramid." I credit my friend for sharing this with me, although it's not his original idea, we've developed it into a nifty way to play the races.

The majority of handicappers build their wagers in a pyramid or triangular fashion:

    1
   2-3
2-3-4-5-6

The problem with this is that the majority of players are doing it! That's why, when a well-backed horse wins the race, most payoffs are somewhat low.

If you flip the logic around, you can open up a whirlwind of options...

Let's say you find a longshot you like. Well, he's a longshot, and he's more likely to run second than he is to win and is more likely to run third than he is second. At the same time, you've narrowed down the race to four horses - your longshot and three others.

At this point, take the pyramid, and flip it upside down with a few adjustments:

  2-3-4
2-3-4-5-6
    1

For just $12, you are covering a nice trifecta. The top three horses (2-3-4) are likely to have a shorter priced horse but a few mid-rangers as well. The center group has those three plus a couple of other nice prices. And finally, you're longshot in third.

You can then rotate the 1 into second, drop the second group down and you another great trifecta wager. For just $24, you have two very live trifecta wagers. Finally, I would take $6 and bet the 1 to win, just in case he runs awesome.

For $30, that's not too shabby of coverage.

The winning possibilities are exciting... say the 4 horse is 8-1 and he wins, but by sheer logic, one of your mid-priced horses is 8-1, and your longshot is 20-1... if it comes in 8-1 / 8-1 / 20-1, that's a huge payday.

I play this way 80% of the time. Finding live longshots to hit the board isn't nearly as difficult as finding live longshots to win.

Furthermore, as you do this, you begin to realize how some horses are "second tier" horses only, or how some horses are likely winners, and they belong in the top group.

It can get expensive, but if you can handicap/narrow down well, it's affordable.

You could go 4 x 10 x 1 for just $36... or 6 x 6 x 1 for $30 etc.

My friend will often use longshot early speed horses who might get an easy early lead, but wilt late to second or third, as his reverse pyramid horse. I, however, use more suck-up second and third place horses. Either way works.

Anyway, sorry to be long winded, but I really like this style of wagering.

Travis,

I used a similar method to hit a superfecta (2x) on BC day. In the Distaff, I keyed Octave in 2nd & 3rd.. and also keyed Hysterical Lady & Lady Joanne in all 4 slots... and then spread out the rest for coverage. (these were dime supers, mind you!) I ended up hitting it twice thanks to all three of my key horses getting into the super... Obviously, having a strong/correct opinion made a huge difference... although, I thought Octave was going to mow them all down in the stretch (I didn't have her on top!).