War Pass --DB ?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If there is a horse without question marks - it's obviously Pyro.

He was always a very straight-forward read and you know he is going to fire on Derby day.

He has big 2yo figures on the go-back, but they came in losing efforts. He has all clear-cut winning efforts this year, but they came without big figures. He overcame a horrible setup in his return win. He put himself much closer to the pace most recently and won from just a few lengths off of the pace.

A horse like War Pass put together four straight big bullet works in September prior to his 9/2 Champagne win where he opened up 5 in the blink of an eye.

While War Pass looked like the kind of horse who was trained to peak for the Champagne and give Zito his 5th win in the race in 11 years - Pyro has always been handled the way one would train a slow developing horse who is meant to peak later on.

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Pyro is so overbet in the futures because he sticks out like a sore thumb as the obvious horse who can be trusted to fire a good race. There is no rational knock against him.

In a normal year, I'd argue he has never run particularly fast (I don't buy the Juvy Beyer for a second) and has beat nothing but tomato cans this year, but there just aren't any horses running fast races right now. He looks as good or better than any other horse.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

If these SoCal races were run on turf, would you still feel the same about their chances on dirt? It is basically the same thing.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

[cmorioles]

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

He was "lucky" because he got a race over-flowing with speed horses his Derby year - topped off by Spanish Chestnut who was running as a rabbit.

Pyro won't get that kind of setup.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He was "lucky" because he got a race over-flowing with speed horses his Derby year - topped off by Spanish Chestnut who was running as a rabbit.

Pyro won't get that kind of setup.

Well, that, and he just wasn't very good.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Giacomo, one of the luckiest Derby winners in history, would look really strong this year.

He backed it up in the BC Classic.Despite the love people have for the DERBY,it's still very much a case of who loves Churchill Downs.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He backed it up in the BC Classic.Despite the love people have for the DERBY,it's still very much a case of who loves Churchill Downs.

With a never in contention, suck up 4th?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

5 of the 7 fastest Beyer figures run by a 3-year-old male this year have been run at Santa Anita - and 6 of the 8 fastest since Christmas have been run there.

The synthetic surface issue is the reason why many bettors don't trust them.

Pyro has run Beyers of just 90 and 95 this year - the similar styled Giacomo ran Beyers of 98, 93, and 95 in his three Derby preps, all with trips or poor setups, and he was 50/1

The high Beyers were sprinting...

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out... Again, pace scenario.

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

Giacomo won the Derby because he loved Churchill Downs, and Afleet Alex didn't run his race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The high Beyers were sprinting...

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out...

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

Heatseeker has the highest dirt route Beyer among older horses. Go Between is up there as well. From a different race, Monterrey Jazz is 5th this year routing.

Nobody says these horses couldn't be decent dirt horses. But, breeding or not, I don't see how they will be ready for a very fast pace after getting used to crawling for 6f every time.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Ummm...Heatseeker has the highest dirt route Beyer. Go Between is up there as well. From a different race, Monterrey Jazz is 5th this year routing.

Nobody says these horses couldn't be decent dirt horses. But, breeding or not, I don't see how they will be ready for a very fast pace after getting used to crawling for 6f every time.

They aren't 3 yos...

ID and I were talking about Beyers for three year olds...

And I just did look the Beyers up...

http://www.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Pyro's Beyers are misleading because of the way the races set up...

He is better than what they show.

His first race...not so much his second one

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Colonel John and El Gato Malo are much better than their 86 and 85 Beyer last out...

This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

His first race...not so much his second one



This is rich.

You argue that Pyro's numbers are misleading because of a slow pace - and than you pretend like the insanely slow pace in the Sham Stakes had nothing to do with those two horses only running an 86 and 85.

All of the numbers are misleading because of the pace scenarios in the races. Isn't that what I said...

If I didn't, sorry, that's what I meant.

I did say that...I said "Again, pace scenario"....after that statement about Colonel John and El Gato Malo.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Oh well, I hope everyone tosses these horses with dirt breeding out just because they have been winning on synthetic.

El Gato Malo's and Colonel John's dams were both better turf horses than dirt horses.

And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners.

El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass.

Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks.

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

Good to know. I'm not really into that sort of thing once they run, but my eyes didn't tell me "dirt" when they run.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

El Gato Malo's and Colonel John's dams were both better turf horses than dirt horses.

And further, both of their sires have been very effective at siring synthetic runners.

El Gato Malo is sired by El Corredor ...who sired Domincan to an upset victory over Street Sense on the Polytrack in the Blue Grass.

Colonel John is by Tiznow....who's current other horses Bear Now, Tough Tiz's Sis, and Well Armed are all more accomplished on synthetic tracks than dirt tracks.

I love how everyone talks about EGM and CJ have "good dirt breeding" - they have two of the best synthetic sires and the dams of both were best on turf ... that's not a recipe that shouts improvement on dirt.

Tiznow has also sired horses that were perfectly capable of running on the dirt.

Folklore
Liquidity
Tiz Wonderful

Colonel John. Turkoman...the dam sire...was certainly very accomplished on the dirt as was Tiznow. I don't see anything in his pedigree or movement that would suggest that he won't take to the 10 furlongs on the dirt. I don't think this horse needs to improve much. He is very good.

El Gato Malo. El Corredor out of a Mountain Cat mare. Again don't see anything in his pedigree that would make me think that he won't take to the dirt. With the way he ran in his last, the DI doesn't really mean much to me at this point either. He'll go the 10.

El Corredor
Adieu
Wanna Runner

Georgie Boy. Has turf action, and may be a little unsound. His pedigree is the most questionable as well. He should get the 10, but I don't know if he will take to the dirt.

Into Mischief (don't know what is going on with him). He should get the 10, and take to the dirt.

Harlan's Holiday
Denis of Cork

As for Well Armed, Bear Now, and Tough Tiz's Sis, how many times have they raced off the synthetic as opposed to the dirt? I know Well Armed went to England and UAE for awhile, but don't know what he did there, if anything.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

The Cali horses are running exceptionally well, but everyone still continues to ignore them because they are getting low Beyers and the synthetic surface.

Cali horses were getting smoked when moving to dirt. Yesterdays win by Sierra Sunset gives at least me to say hmmm, maybe something is brewing out West. Georgie Boy also had a very nice effort... Maybe one sneaks in and we get Giacomo numbers... I think the low Beyers may be attributed to how races are now run on the Synthetic. It is more like a Turf race with no one wanting the lead until it is time to break for home.