Oh my gosh

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

What is all this toss the race stuff? I'll never understand it.

War Pass did not get an ideal trip from the start today and we learned something about him. If you toss the race, you are completely ignoring the race, and therefore assuming if anything from today's race resurfaces, whether it be trip, pace, break etc., you ignore it, which is foolish.

We didn't learn anything. Are you really gonna start handicapping races based on who MIGHT get bumped at the start?

[milliam]

Somebody revive Beyer and Vietch. Slew can rest easy

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by milliam

Somebody revive Beyer and Vietch. Slew can rest easy

They compared him to Seattle Slew too? OMG.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

We didn't learn anything. Are you really gonna start handicapping races based on who MIGHT get bumped at the start?

No, because they don't publish that information, but I'll call the folks I know at Equibase and ask them to.

Bumped or not, it's clear War Pass is not the same horse when he's free and clear on the lead. In the Kentucky Derby, when there is a real likely chance a stretch-out sprinter such as Keyed Entry or Brancusi or Songandaprayer joins the early mix, War Pass figures to have more trouble making the lead, therefore hindering his chances.

If he was sick/hurt today, it becomes a different story. So until then, I'm going upon what I learned in the race today.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

No, because they don't publish that information, but I'll call the folks I know at Equibase and ask them to.

Bumped or not, it's clear War Pass is not the same horse when he's free and clear on the lead. In the Kentucky Derby, when there is a real likely chance a stretch-out sprinter such as Keyed Entry or Brancusi or Songandaprayer joins the early mix, War Pass figures to have more trouble making the lead, therefore hindering his chances.

If he was sick/hurt today, it becomes a different story. So until then, I'm going upon what I learned in the race today.

And I'm saying that all you possibly could have learned is that if War Pass gets slammed at the break in the Debry, he won't win. And I would have conceeded that point all along.

[The Bid]

You dont rate horses like WP, the instructions were dont get dirty and we will see you in the winners circle

[ateamstupid]

LOL @ the excuse machine churning right along, despite the fact that the horse was in striking position until the far turn, where he was asked and responded with a breathtaking backwards dash.

[justindew]

War Pass is clearly being held to a higher standard than is appropriate. Handicappers toss entire efforts a million times a day based on things exactly like what happened to War Pass.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by justindew

War Pass is clearly being held to a higher standard than is appropriate. Handicappers toss entire efforts a million times a day based on things exactly like what happened to War Pass.

That is what happens I guess when the undefeated 2 yo champ runs a poor race at 1/9 when for the first time he faced early adversity, no matter how monumental or trivial you characterize it.

[Travis Stone]

There is a major difference between "tossing" a race and "forgiving" a race. I think the former is bogus with the exception of extreme scenarios. The latter applies on a daily basis.

[The Bid]

Travis, taking todays race out of the mix how many horses had been inside a length of WP at any point of call in a race?

Suicide is thinking this horse doesnt win by open lengths if hes allowed to break clean

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Travis, taking todays race out of the mix how many horses had been inside a length of WP at any point of call in a race?

Suicide is thinking this horse doesnt win by open lengths if hes allowed to break clean

I'm not disputing his ability to win with a free-and-clear trip. The horse is a mover and glides over the ground with visual ease. I'm disputing the "toss" factor of this race.

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Travis, taking todays race out of the mix how many horses had been inside a length of WP at any point of call in a race?

Suicide is thinking this horse doesnt win by open lengths if hes allowed to break clean

why would anyone think WP will get a clean break in the 20 horse field of the derby? that's begging for the 20 post and i can't believe he'd get a free run to the front from there.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

And I'm saying that all you possibly could have learned is that if War Pass gets slammed at the break in the Debry, he won't win. And I would have conceeded that point all along.

That's funny. You're totally missing the point. War Pass did not win today, if we agree on that, we're making progress. War Pass did not get ideal conditions today. Less than ideal conditions for any horse can spell loss, which happened today. To assume such situations occur only when a horse is bumped at the gate is handicapping suicide. Furthermore, even though he did not get away cleanly, he still found himself in a good spot tracking the speed. Yes, he was wide, but wide horses win all day long at Tampa. When it came time to run, he didn't fire.

I learned he's not a super horse. Still a good horse? You bet. But he's not in his own world, with everyone else living in it.

[Left Bank]

I personally believe he was,or is,injured.It looked to me like Cornelio was going to pull him up in the stretch at one point,and the horse did not look comfortable running at all.I'm betting he's hurt.

[justindew]

So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.

[The Bid]

Travis, the only way he doesnt get a free and clear trip is when the gate crew doesnt do their job. Hes broke like a rocketship in all other starts

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Travis, the only way he doesnt get a free and clear trip is when the gate crew doesnt do their job. Hes broke like a rocketship in all other starts

R, I think you're putting too much emphasis on the bad break. I think it's a combination of things... bad break, quirky surface that he didn't like, rank (which he has shown he can be in the past) and possibly sore. He didn't look comfortable to me at all (maybe the surface?)

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by justindew

So, you equate simply being on the lead with "ideal"? That reminds me of what people used to say about Azeri. "She needs things her own way." Total nonsense. She ran the opening 3/4 in the 2002 BC Distaff in under 1:10, and romped. But she DID need to be on the lead, most of the time. In fact, she NEVER lost a two-turn race when she was sent to the front. Go back and look at the fractions that War Pass has set in his previous races. He has simply outrun everyone from start to finish. "Ideal" would be alone and slow. War Pass doesn't need slow, and may not need alone.

I'm not here to argue the definition of ideal, that's not my point, which again, you're totally dancing around.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm not here to argue the definition of ideal, that's not my point, which again, you're totally dancing around.

I guess your point is that the race should not be tossed because War Pass still had a chance to win in spite of his bad break. I'm saying that his bad break took him compltely out of his running style and forced him to do something he has no experience doing if he wanted to win. I am also saying there is no reason to predict that this exact same scenario will occur again in the Derby, therefore there is nothing meaningful to be learned by this race today in regard to War Pass. Unless of course you think Zito hoped War Pass would teach himself to stalk and pounce.