Pyro

[ceejay]

His running style will make it tough in a field of 20.........

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ceejay

His running style will make it tough in a field of 20.........

The horses who raced 19th and 20th early on in last years Derby - finished 1st and 4th.

4th place finisher Imawildandcrazyguy just ran 3rd in a small stake at Tampa today.

All things being equal, I'd prefer a closing style in the Derby.

closers win almost half of the KY derbies, stalkers take about 1/2 the rest. So all things being equal you'd take a closer. All things being equal. It seems that the various running styles are about equallydistributed but that's just a rough count based on last couple runnings of the derby.

OTOH, some running styles like stalkers have to turn into closers in the derby because of all the traffic. Fu Peg or Charismatic might be examples of this.

All in all one should not dismiss a horse for the derby on the basis of his being a closer. Being a closer is a plus.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

All things being equal, I'd prefer a closing style in the Derby.

I had this same conversation with a friend of mine today. The chug-up finishers in the Derby are often great to wheel underneath at good prices:

Bluegrass Cat 30-1, Jazil 24-1, Steppenwolfer 16-1 in '06, Limehouse 41-1 in '04 etc.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The horses who raced 19th and 20th early on in last years Derby - finished 1st and 4th.

4th place finisher Imawildandcrazyguy just ran 3rd in a small stake at Tampa today.

All things being equal, I'd prefer a closing style in the Derby.

Excellent point and another step in the road to convincing people that they needn't be overly concerned with closers in the Derby as only around three of the last 17 were won by horses on the pace.

NT

[sumitas]

I thought that most of the Derby winners were within 3 lengths of the lead at the first turn ?
Street Sense is an obvious exception to that.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by sumitas

I thought that most of the Derby winners were within 3 lengths of the lead at the first turn ?
Street Sense is an obvious exception to that.

maybe final turn

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

maybe final turn

What's one turn between friends?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

What's one turn between friends?

One turn leads to another

[JJP]

Originally Posted by ceejay

His running style will make it tough in a field of 20.........

If one were to break down running styles of the winners of the last 25 KY Derbies, you'd find more closers winning than speed horses, pressers or stalkers. I don't have the charts of these races so I'm going off memory here. Some of these might be debateable but here's how I'd break them down:

Speed: War Emblem, Go for Gin SPend a Buck, Winning Colors
Pressers: Smarty Jones, Swale, Sunny's Halo
Stalkers:Barbaro, Funny Cide, Charismatic, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Thunder Gulch, Lil E Tee, Sunday Silence
Closers: Street Sense, Giacomo, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus, Grindstone, Sea Hero, Strike the Gold, Unbridled, Alysheba, Ferdinand

And with the bigger field, it does seem that some pressers going into the race became stalkers (Silver Charm, Funny Cide and Barbaro) and stalkers can become closers. But I wouldn't hold Pyro's running style against him.

[CSC]

Yes Pyro is a good horse, however I sense the hype machine is working overtime.

To put things in perspective I would think a donkey would stand a good chance to win under Asmussen at The Fairgrounds right now. Which begs the question just how good is this horse?

Originally Posted by JJP

If one were to break down running styles of the winners of the last 25 KY Derbies, you'd find more closers winning than speed horses, pressers or stalkers. I don't have the charts of these races so I'm going off memory here....

I think Thunder Gulch was a presser in the derby, although had been a closer earlier in his career the last time I studied those derby charts. I believed he was remained closer to the pace the rest of his career except for Preakness. But if you did that from memory that is a pretty good list from off the top of your head.

Ive done them all going back to 1930 and very nearly the same % breakdown follows all the way back. It's about 46-48% closers about 1/2 that stalkers and the rest gtw or pressers. There must be a reason these numbers continue to hold and it must have to do with the added distance at this pt in their careers as well as whatever type surface CD is usually set at. Maybe the field size too but maybe not...?

I am beginning to like Pyro but I cant believe he is ahead of War Pass at this pt. Other than that he seems like the real deal.The more I study the derby it seems to me it may be more of a question of what horse can accelerate at the right moment rather than straight on running times/BSF etc.

For one thing, the only way to explain certain races is to sort of accept that the final time could have been anywhere w/in a range and that it really was a question of at what pt. the jockey believed it was the right moment to send his horse. Whether Citation wins the Preakness in 2:05 or whatever it was is not really germane, that fact that he coudl accelerate at a moment's notice was a clear, tangible advantage, albeit difficult to measure.

This idea may also explain why slop may tend to produce larger beaten margins. It is simply very difficult to accelerate quickly and horses that are in a good position to do so can pretty much dictate when they go. Think Street Sense in the BC juvenile; he's not really 10 lengths beter than the field is he? He may not even be 5 lengths better on a fast track. But he has push buton acceleration. Or like Dust Commander winning the derby 5 lengths. Or Assault winning by 8?? The latter two horses did not tower over their fields in the way that SpendaBuck or Sec/Sham or Barbaro did. Something else is going on here.

Or compare dirt to KEE type synethic and turf races. These horses seem to have a very different style having to do with the ability to accelerate anytime they want. And nearly every turf race looks the same. WHy is that? The only thing I can think of is that this ability to accelerate on a moment's notice is easier on turf, even mediocre horses have it. THey dont win much but at least the winning margins are smaller the very opposite of dirt/slop.

If sur someone else smarter than me knows a better theory but in my feeble mind this is all I come up with.

Pyro is not my derby horse, at this pt. But if anone can avoid traffic troubles it is him. Compare to like Blackberry Rd. or that Majestic Warrior horse. I would not count on Pyro being blocked on derby day, that much I would be willing to put money on, not much else but that I would bet on.

Elysium Fields and Visoinaire are also closers that seem intriguing on derby day. Definitely want to take a closer look at EF..