CRIST: Changes dilute Cup's appeal

[letswastemoney]

If they did that 4% takeout thing at a major circuit track (SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill), I believe it would work. I just don't like Ellis cards because I'm not familiar with the horses or the jockey and trainer patterns.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If they did that 4% takeout thing at a major circuit track (SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill), I believe it would work. I just don't like Ellis cards because I'm not familiar with the horses or the jockey and trainer patterns.

Exactly. For players that dont follow the circuit, (and Ellis is mostly made up of lower tier KY horses, Indiana horses and Fairmont horses)the takeout is not appealing because they have no clue about what is going on. I'm sure if Saratoga during that time period had the same bet with the same takeout it would have been a big success. Plus for lower takeout to truly be effective it must be in effect for a long period of time.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If they did that 4% takeout thing at a major circuit track (SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill), I believe it would work. I just don't like Ellis cards because I'm not familiar with the horses or the jockey and trainer patterns.

1. You don't have to be NEARLY as familiar with the local conditions when you are trying to beat a 4% vig compared to trying to beat a 20% vig.

2. Do you think the capping competition at Ellis is as tough as at SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill? Maybe it is, but I doubt it.

3. If horse bettors were so bright, they would have collectively realized that if the 4% Ellis experiment was successful, other tracks would have noticed and tried similar things. Instead, what the other tracks noticed was a 4% takeout that did not bring in nearly enough action to justify the low vig.

Even if you knew nothing about the track, a random Ellis pick 4 costing $100 would have been a $4 investment in the future of the game. Despite the fact that the vast majority of bettors, including those here, are losing far more than 4% of their total bets in the longterm, not many bettors supported the Ellis venture.

--Dunbar

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

1. You don't have to be NEARLY as familiar with the local conditions when you are trying to beat a 4% vig compared to trying to beat a 20% vig.

2. Do you think the capping competition at Ellis is as tough as at SA, Hol, Bel, Churchill? Maybe it is, but I doubt it.

3. If horse bettors were so bright, they would have collectively realized that if the 4% Ellis experiment was successful, other tracks would have noticed and tried similar things. Instead, what the other tracks noticed was a 4% takeout that did not bring in nearly enough action to justify the low vig.

Even if you knew nothing about the track, a random Ellis pick 4 costing $100 would have been a $4 investment in the future of the game. Despite the fact that the vast majority of bettors, including those here, are losing far more than 4% of their total bets in the longterm, not many bettors supported the Ellis venture.

--Dunbar

All of what you say is probably true but Ellis is such a pile of crap especially when you are competing against Saratoga, Del Mar and even Arlington. I have yet to find a horseplayer who plays for the good of the game even if it will in the long run possibly help them. Most players, even here, follow the sport and wager in a part time fashion and I just dont see those people having much interest in handicapping Ellis regardless of takeout. I tried to play some of the Ellis pick 4's because i thought it was a great idea. But honestly after a few miserable attempts I threw in the towel. Well I may just suck as a handicapper but thats another story.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

All of what you say is probably true but Ellis is such a pile of crap especially when you are competing against Saratoga, Del Mar and even Arlington. I have yet to find a horseplayer who plays for the good of the game even if it will in the long run possibly help them. Most players, even here, follow the sport and wager in a part time fashion and I just dont see those people having much interest in handicapping Ellis regardless of takeout. I tried to play some of the Ellis pick 4's because i thought it was a great idea. But honestly after a few miserable attempts I threw in the towel. Well I may just suck as a handicapper but thats another story.

Yeah, CS, there is a bit of a Prisoner's Dilemma aspect to expecting folks to "play for the good of the game". I did do just that, however, because I thought it was that important. I was vacationing during almost all the promotion, and would normally have spent zero time making horse bets. (it was Hawaii, after all!) But I took about a half hour each morning to create a $200-$400 ticket. If there were another 100 people in the entire country doing that, it would have had an impact. If there were 300 people doing that, every track would have taken notice. My "expected loss" was about $12/day, assuming my capping was completely clueless. (an assumption that I could not easily reject, as far as the Pick 4's went) As it turned out, I did considerably worse than a dart thrower with my Ellis bets, but that doesn't really change the way I look at it.

--Dunbar